It was bound to happen sooner or later, though Democrats very much hoped that it would be later. Public opinion is shifting -- sharply -- and Americans are beginning to blame the Democrats for the state of the economy.  According to CNN, 38 percent of Americans blame the GOP for the state of the economy, down 15 percent from May, while 27 percent of Americans blame the Democrats, up six percent.  27 percent blame both parties.  Perhaps even more troubling, 28 percent of Americans believe that Obama's policies have harmed the economy, while 35 percent think they've made no difference.

Rasmussen is out with a new poll this morning indicating that Senator John McCain could be facing a stiff primary challenge from former Rep (and now radio talk show host) JD Hayworth. According to Rasmussen, McCain leads Hayworth by a slim two point margin, 45 to 43.

“This result is no surprise to us. Maybe Obama didn't understand that all the high officials of the so-called free media are appointed by the party.” - Michael Anti, a Chinese blogger, explaining why Obama's interview with the Chinese Newspaper Southern Weekly disappeared from some editions while a heavily edited version appeared in others.

The Watertown Daily reports:

With his prospect of winning the 23rd Congressional District race now almost zero, Conservative Party candidate Douglas L. Hoffman suggested Wednesday in a letter that “ACORN, the unions and the Democratic Party” “tampered” with results to deny him victory.

Mr. Hoffman provided no evidence to support his claims, but asked fellow conservatives to send donations his way to “ensure every vote is counted.”

This strikes me as a fairly transparent ploy on Hoffman's part to cast doubt on the legitimacy of the results. If he's got proof fraud occurred, then by all means bring it forward. But to cry fraud without proof is irresponsible, not least because will undermine future cases where fraud may actually have occurred.

A new Zogby poll for the League of American Voters, a group which opposes the health care legislation, shows Democratic Senator Blanche Lincoln leading her most likely general election opponent, Republican Gilbert Baker, by just two points, 41 to 39, with 18 percent undecided.

The poll then proceded to probe voter opinions on health care. Fifty-four percent were opposed to "the healthcare bill proposed by President Obama and now making its way through Congress."  Thirty-eight percent said they would be "much less likely" to vote for Blanche Lincoln if they knew she supported the legislation.

Zogby then re-asked the general election question this way:

Knowing that Lincoln supports the healthcare bill, if elections for U.S. Senate were held today, and the candidates were Democrat Blanche Lincoln and Republican Gilbert Baker, who would you vote for?

The result is Lincoln drops to 37 percent while Baker surges to 49 percent, and 11.5 percent remain undecided.

That's a 14-point swing based on Lincoln's vote on health care. Again, this poll should be taken with a grain of salt given the sponsor, but even if the effect of Lincoln's vote is only half of what this poll suggests, it could be the deciding factor in her race for reelection.

CEDAR CREEK, Texas -- At its annual conference today, the Republican Governors Association released results of a poll finding that only 43 percent of voters nationally would re-elect President Obama if an election were held next month. Slightly more -- 45 percent, say it's time for someone new in the White House, while 11 percent say it would depend on the GOP nominee.

In a subsample taken in 30 gubernatorial battleground states in 2010, 42 percent would re-elect Obama, a potentially ominous sign for Democrats looking to maintain majority control of the statehouses.

Among independent voters nationally, just 37 percent nationally would elect Obama, while 46 percent want a new president, and 17 percent say it depends on the Republican opponent.

The survey was conducted by Zogby International among 2,879 voters from November 10-12, and has a margin of error of +/- 1.9%. A subsample of 1,471 voters who voted in last year's presidential election and plan to vote in the midterms was conducted in states that Cook Political Report deems to have a competitive gubernatorial races.

Though a potential warning sign for Obama's political health nationally, one should not necessarily read these numbers as a potential bellwether for 2010 without seeing state-by-state numbers. Still, the RGA says the 42 percent figure mirrors results in Virginia and New Jersey, where Republicans won races earlier this month.

New poll from FOX News/Opinion Dynamics shows President Obama's approval rating sinking to a new low of 46%. An equal number now disapprove of the job Obama is doing as President.

Most concerning for the White House is that 51% of Independents disapprove of the job Obama is doing compared to only 34% who approve.

On the other hand, Congress' job approval rating ticked up versus FOX's last poll in mid-October, though it remains at a dismal 26%. Sixty-three percent disapprove of the job Congress is doing. Last month those numbers were 24 and 66 percent, respectively.

Republicans hold a three-point edge over Democrats on the 2010 generic ballot question, 42 to 39. Fifteen percent said it was too soon to make a determination.

Twenty-three percent of those surveyed say Obama is a "weaker leader" than they expected (including 8% of Democrats, 37% of Republicans and 29% of Independents). As a point of comparison, that number is 10 points higher than an identical question asked about President Bush in July, 2001.

Lastly, by an overwhelming margin of 67 to 26, respondents said it was appropriate for a President of the United States to bow to a foreign leader if it is part of that country's custom.

So says the New York Daily News:

Former Mayor Rudy Giuliani has decided not to run for governor next year - but will run for U.S. Senate instead, sources told the Daily News.

A source familiar with Giuliani's thinking said the failed presidential candidate has been telling people he plans to run against Democratic Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand in 2010 to fill out the remaining two years of Hillary Clinton's term.

If elected, the source said, he could use that as a stepping stone to run for President in 2012 - rather than run for re-election to the Senate.

A spokesperson for Giuliani downplayed the story.

I believe Rudy may be serious about running for the Senate, but I find it hard to believe that if he were to win he would turn around a few weeks later and throw his hat in the ring for President - which is what he'd have to do.

I also find it somewhat specious, given the way his last go round ended up playing out, that Giuliani's prospects of running the gauntlet in the Republican primary will somehow be better two years from now than they were a year ago. If anything, they might be worse.

New Rasmussen survey of the California Governor's race shows Republican Meg Whitman climbing into a tie with Democrat Jerry Brown:

Brown (D) 41 (-3 vs. last poll in September)
Whitman (R) 41 (+6)

Brown is the only major Democratic candidate in the field after San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom abruptly abandoned his bid three weeks ago.

Whitman is a primary battle with State Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner and ex-Congressman Tom Campbell. Both men run behind Brown in hypothetical general election match ups:

Brown (D) 43
Poizner (R) 32

Brown (D) 42
Campbell (R) 33

Also of note from the poll: Republican Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger's job apporval rating is at a dismal 29%.

I was a bit surprised to see the following email in my inbox from Mitch Stewart, the director of Organizing for America, which in the new name for the grassroots activist network from Obama's 2008 campaign:

-----------------------------------------------------------------------

Thomas --Right now, Sarah Palin is on a highly publicized, nationwide book tour, attacking President Obama and his plan for health reform at every turn.

It's dangerous. Remember, this is the person who coined the term "Death Panels" -- and opened the flood gates for months of false attacks by special interests and partisan extremists.Whatever lie comes next will be widely covered by the media, then constantly echoed by right-wing attack groups and others who are trying to defeat reform.

As we approach the final sprint on health reform, we can't afford more deception and delay. We need to be ready for anything -- and have the resources to respond with ads, events, and calls to Congress when the attacks come.

So we're setting a big goal: $500,000 in the next week to help push back against Sarah Palin and her allies. Please chip in $5 to help reach our goal.

Earlier this month, Palin publicly said that she hopes health reform will be "dead on arrival." And since then, she's been working fiercely toward that goal.

On Tuesday, Palin went on Rush Limbaugh's radio show where she outrageously -- and falsely -- suggested that Americans could "face jail time as punishment" if they don't buy insurance.

Palin has many more interviews scheduled on Hannity and other conservative shows in the next few weeks, with more platforms to go after the President. As soon as she does, the rest of our opponents will likely parrot those attacks.

We need to be prepared. And we're counting on you help. Can you chip in $5?

https://donate.barackobama.com/SarahPalin

Thanks,

Mitch

Mitch Stewart
Director
Organizing for America