Senator Kent Conrad surprised observers today by announcing that he is ending a 24-year stint as a senator and will be retiring at the end of his term in 2012.

This sets up the second prime Republican pickup opportunity in North Dakota in as many cycles. Although the state sent two Democrats to the Senate from 1986 through 2010 and has toyed with voting for Democrats for president (Bill Clinton lost the state by only six points in 1996), it has taken on a decidedly Republican tilt over the past decade.

Compounding the Democrats' challege of retaining this seat, the party's bench in the state is very thin. Democrats like Conrad and his former colleague, Byron Dorgan, won statewide office before being elected to the Senate. Dorgan became tax commissioner of North Dakota in the late 1960s before going on to the House of Representatives in 1980, while Conrad succeeded Dorgan in that position before upsetting a weakened GOP incumbent in 1986 (Conrad actually won the Senate seat now held by John Hoeven first, retired in 1992 and was succeeded by Dorgan, and then ran for his current seat in 1994 following the death of longtime Democratic Senator Quentin Burdick).

Today, however, Republicans hold nine of the 10 statewide offices - their one miss is for superintendant of public instruction. Representative Earl Pomeroy, the longtime heir apparent to Conrad and Dorgan, lost his re-election campaign by nine points in 2010. And Democrats hold only 37 of 141 seats in the state legislature.

Finally, demographics are an issue. North Dakota has always been a Republican state, but that was only because of sectional concerns. The real powerbroker in the state was the Nonpartisan League, whose platform was Populist-Socialist; this is why North Dakota has a state bank, state grain elevators, and a ban on corporate farming. Conrad and Dorgan were squarely in the NPL tradition.

Many older voters recalled this tradition; North Dakota was one of the few states in the 2004 elections where young voters voted more heavily for President Bush than did voters over 60. (President Obama barely carried 18-29 year olds). In other words, the Democratic/Progressive base in the state is dying off.

If Pomeroy tries for a comeback, Democrats will have a shot at the seat, though given his performance in 2010 against a fairly obscure candidate, the Republican nominee will still start out as a favorite. When asked by Politico whether or not he would run for the seat, Pomeroy said, "I'm about two weeks into a new job. I've changed course and I'm not looking back."

Assuming Senator Dorgan doesn't follow Conrad's 1992-94 strategy and run for this seat (which seems unlikely), the only other “top-tier” option for Democrats would be former Attorney General Heidi Heitkamp, who lost the 2000 governor's race to Hoeven by 10 points in a year that George W. Bush was beating Al Gore by 37 points in the state.

Republicans have a plethora of potential candidates - Public Service Commissioner Brian Kalk is already forming an exploratory committee and numerous others are considering a run - but none has the massive bipartisan appeal that Hoeven did.

North Dakota Sen. Kent Conrad surprised Democrats this morning by announcing that he will not run for re-election after 24 years in the upper chamber.

Citing the nation's debt of $14 trillion and dependence on foreign oil, Conrad said in a statement, "It is more important I spend my time and energy trying to solve these problems than to be distracted by a campaign for re-election."

In addition to those two issues, Conrad said he'll spend his last two years in the Senate working on a new farm bill and two more local issues - permanent flood control for the Red River Valley and the rising waters in the Devils Lake Basin.

The decision was nonetheless a shocking one, considering Conrad had already spent some campaign cash on radio advertising just last week in preparation for a re-election bid. His ad was in response to early advertising done by the American Future Fund to weaken Conrad ahead of what was expected to be a very competitive campaign; Conrad's war chest stood at $1.8 million as of late September.

Chris Thorne, a former key staffer to Conrad, explained that the AFF ads amounted to nothing more than "a pin prick" and likely wouldn't resonate with North Dakota voters.

Thorne expects Conrad will stay engaged in the national debate.

"He's one of the most intellectually curious members of the Senate," he said. "I can't see him sitting on the sidelines."

Indeed, Conrad is chairman of the Budget Committee and was a leading voice in favor of creating a bipartisan fiscal commission. He recently received an inaugural "Fiscy" award by a committee of several organizations focused on fiscal discipline for his leadership on the issue.

In North Dakota, however, Thorne explained that the economy is humming along compared to most of the rest of the country, and voters there are more focused on local issues like air bases, water issues and highways.

Conrad's retirement leaves a strong pickup opportunity for Republicans in the Senate, but Democrats warn that there is a new guard of younger candidates who could make the race challenging for the GOP.

A leading candidate for Democrats is the more entrenched Heidi Heitkamp, a former attorney general who passed on a Senate run last cycle after Byron Dorgan stepped down. Operatives say if she decides not to run in 2012, she'll have to say why she's refusing this time.

Other than Heitkamp, Jasper Schneider, an Obama administration appointee who serves as state director for USDA rural development is a possibility for Democrats, as is state Sen. Ryan Taylor.

Republicans are looking to Public Service Commissioner Brian Kalk, who is already exploring a bid, and Rick Berg, who just began his first term in the House. Top House GOP leadership sources say Berg is among the brightest of the big new class of freshmen. He secured a rare post on the powerful Ways and Means Committee.

Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) added her name to a growing list of legislators who are supporting a proposal for members of Congress to avoid the traditionally divided seating by party affiliation during President Obama's State of the Union address later this month.

Murkowski announced on Friday that she is co-leading a bipartisan effort with Sen. Mark Udall (D-Colo.) to encourage lawmakers to sit together, regardless of party, during Obama's speech on Jan. 25.

"The choreographed standing and clapping of one side of the room - while the other side sits - is unbecoming of a serious institution," Murkowski and Udall wrote in an open letter to their colleagues. "And the message that it sends is that even on a night when the President is addressing the entire nation, we in Congress cannot sit as one, but must be divided as two."

Murkowski spokesman Michael Brumas said that Udall first approached the Alaska senator about joining him in the effort.

Murkowski won reelection as a write-in candidate and did not enjoy the official support of the national Republican Party in her general election battle against Fairbanks attorney Joe Miller, who defeated her in the Republican primary. Murkowski has indicated that her write-in victory has freed her to take a more independent line in the Senate, although she remains a member of the Republican caucus.

But Brumas said that Murkowski's newfound political independence was not the reason why she decided to get behind the State of the Union seating effort, which has already received the public backing of at least six of her Senate colleagues.

"I think it's more that the State of the Union has perhaps gotten a little out of hand with the sharp partisanship in recent years, and she sees this as a way to dial that back," Brumas said.

The seating plan was initially put forward by the Washington-based think tank Third Way in the wake of the mass murder and attempted assassination of Rep. Gabrielle Giffords (D-Ariz.) in Tucson, Arizona.

House Majority Whip Kevin McCarthy came out in support of the plan on Friday and told reporters that he planned to sit next to House Minority Whip Steny Hoyer (D-Md.) during Obama's speech.

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) said on Thursday that the plan should be given "serious consideration." House Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) and House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) have not yet spoken publicly about the proposal.

Iowa Republican Rep. Steve King is ready to return to official House business after marking the shootings in Tucson, Arizona, from the Hawkeye State.

"I expect we will vote to repeal Obamacare next week," the conservative Iowan said of the House GOP, which had planned to bring a vote to the House floor this week to repeal last year's comprehensive health care reform bill. Agenda items were swiftly scrubbed from this week's calendar in the wake of Democratic Rep. Gabrielle Giffords' wounding over the weekend from the shooting spree.

King said he was impressed with and proud of his state's legislature earlier this week - and was in the chamber when Iowans observed a moment of silence at the direction of President Obama on Monday. The Republican said he spent some time with Democratic Rep. Leonard Boswell, who served alongside him in the state Senate, as well.

King said the shootings have been on the minds of many of his constituents and associates.

"Wherever I go, people tell me to be careful, watch out," he said, explaining that he could be a more vulnerable member in ways because he's never shied away from confrontation when it comes to political rhetoric.

"By the same token, this is an anomaly," he said, stressing that he hopes officials don't go overboard or overcorrect security measures. He believes security measures may need some improvement, but that they don't need to be broadcasted through the media.

"To some degree, we overreacted to Sept. 11th," he said, explaining that some reactionary security measures may have been too stringent and unnecessary.

He still firmly believes that dealing with the health care bill is the appropriate way to start the session.

"I'm delighted to see my language come to the floor," King said, referring to the repeal bill he introduced with Minnesota GOP Rep. Michele Bachmann.

The congressman realizes that President Obama wouldn't sign the bill and there is great difficulty in getting the Senate Democratic leadership to send such a bill to the floor of the upper chamber.

Nevertheless, he said, "I think we would have the votes in the Senate to repeal Obamacare."

King suggested that some Democrats, especially those who may have to face the voters again for re-election efforts in 2012 may be interested in repeal, and he trusts that those Democrats may be hoping for ways to get the bill to the floor.

At the same time, he warned, the GOP-controlled House is not interested in funding health care reform as it moves into the implementation stage, and that may take precedence in the battle over the issue. The repeal vote is, to King, the first step in the process toward dismantling the bill.

Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney has secured both a pollster and a political director for his near-certain presidential bid this coming cycle, according to sources connected to Romney's 2008 presidential effort.

Rich Beeson, a Republican operative who has worked as a political director at the Republican National Committee and was most recently a partner at the voter contact firm FLS Connect, will be Romney's political director. Beeson has already moved his family to Massachusetts for his new role.

A GOP source who worked against Romney in the last campaign said Beeson was a savvy hire for Romney's team, as he brings an outsider perspective to Romney's Boston inner circle.

Romney's political director for his last bid was Carl Forti, who now has a high-profile job at the Karl Rove and Ed Gillespie GOP group, American Crossroads.

And for polling, Romney is bringing on Neil Newhouse, a partner at the polling firm Public Opinion Strategies, GOP sources told RealClearPolitics.

Newhouse was named "pollster of the year" by the American Association of Political Consultants for his polling efforts in Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown's successful campaign last year.

Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels is returning to Ohio for some more politicking next month.

On Feb. 23, he will headline the Hamilton County Republican Party Lincoln Reagan Day Dinner. The Wednesday night event will take place at the Duke Energy Convention Center, according to a copy of the invitation provided to RealClearPolitics.

Daniels campaigned in Ohio twice in the thick of the 2010 midterms, when he did little campaigning outside the Hoosier State.

But the Lincoln Reagan Day Dinner in the heart of Cincinnati, a center for wealthy GOP donors, is a clear step in the direction of a presidential bid.

Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney had a tight grip on some of the influential corporate donors in the conservative bastion of Cincinnati in the last presidential primary, but Ohio GOP sources have suggested that those donors may be shopping for a new candidate this time.

Also attracting their attention is former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, who will appear in front of the same group at the Hamilton County GOP's pancake breakfast a month before on Jan. 29 at the Sharonville Convention Center.

Former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin released a lengthy video statement on Wednesday morning in which she discussed her reaction to the tragic shooting spree in Tucson on Saturday and the political discourse that has developed in its aftermath.

Released on the day when President Obama is scheduled to travel to Arizona to pay his respects to the shooting victims and deliver remarks near the scene of the carnage, Palin's video message appeared designed to present a measured tone and to conjure up a stately image, as she spoke directly to camera with an American flag placed conspicuously over her left shoulder.

The immediate reaction to the video message has focused on Palin's media criticism, particularly her warning that journalists and pundits should not use the mass murder and attempted assassination of Rep. Gabrielle Giffords (D-AZ) to "manufacture a blood libel that serves only to incite the very hatred and violence they purport to condemn."

The phrase "blood libel" has traditionally been used to describe anti-Semitic uproars, in which Jews were falsely accused of sacrificing Christian children for their blood.

But at least as notable in a political context was the video's production quality and format, which somewhat resembled an opposition party's response to a State of the Union address.

The video was unlike anything Palin has released to the public before and suggested that the former Republican vice presidential nominee was seeking to project herself in a manner befitting a judicious and accommodating leader -- and perhaps a presidential candidate.

"Our exceptional country -- so vibrant with ideas and passionate exchange and debate of ideas -- it's a light to the rest of the world," Palin said in the nearly eight-minute long video. "Congresswoman Giffords and her constituents were exercising their right to exchange ideas that day, to celebrate our Republic's core values and peacefully assemble to petition our government. It's inexcusable, incomprehensible why a single, evil man took the lives of peaceful citizens that day."

The timing of the video's release was sure to dominate the political discourse online and on cable news just hours before Obama is scheduled to take center stage, suggesting that Palin has sought once again to become the standard bearer for the Republican Party on a controversial issue of national significance.

Until Wednesday, Palin's reaction to the Arizona tragedy had been uncharacteristically muted. After releasing a short statement in the shooting's immediate aftermath, the former Alaska governor relied on an aide to make the case that the map her political action committee had released during the midterm elections actually featured "surveyor's symbols," rather than crosshairs over targeted districts -- a suggestion that was widely ridiculed, considering Palin's own descriptions of the map that evoked gun imagery.

Palin then relied on her conservative media ally Glenn Beck to read on the air from an email she had sent him, which condemned violence in general and disparaged the reaction from those who had sought to pin the blame on her.

In the video message released on Wednesday, Palin attempted to strike a balance between seeking a more accommodating and sober tone in light of the tragedy in Tucson, while refusing to cede ground in her argument in favor of lively and often provocative political discourse.

"No one should be deterred from speaking up and speaking out in peaceful dissent," Palin said. "And we certainly must not be deterred by those who embrace evil and call it good, and we will not be stopped from celebrating the greatness of our country and our foundational freedom by those who mock its greatness by being intolerant of differing opinion and seeking to muzzle dissent with shrill cries of imagined insults."

Arizona Republican Gov. Jan Brewer, scheduled to give her State of the State address today, instead offered remarks on Saturday's shootings in Tucson.

The tragedy has "caused me, caused all of us to reflect on many things, including how we respond to those terrible events," she said before her legislature.

"Our response to this tragedy must be led by prayer and comfort the victims and their families," she said, before leading the chamber in a moment of silence.

Brewer recognized the six Arizonans who were killed Saturday in front of the grocery store where Arizona Democratic Rep. Gabrielle Giffords was holding her first "Congress on Your Corner" event of the year.

She also honored some of the acts of bravery from the event, and singled out Daniel Hernandez, a new intern to Giffords who helped the wounded congresswoman until she arrived at the hospital.

Broaching the magnitude of the shootings, Brewer said that the attacks were not just on the afflicted individuals, "but an assault on our constitutional republic, our democracy."

"Arizona is in in pain; yes, our grief is profound," she said.

"We have not been brought down. We will never be brought down," she said, earning her a standing ovation in the chamber. And she expressed gratitude for the outpouring of support from the entire country.

As for her agenda for the Grand Canyon State in the coming year, she said at the beginning of her speech, "I will deliver that plan to you, but not now, not today."

Senator Joe Manchin (D-WV) on Monday fought back against suggestions that a controversial campaign ad he aired last October may have contributed to an overheated political culture that is being reexamined in light of the assassination attempt on Rep. Gabrielle Giffords (D-AZ) that left her critically wounded and six dead in Tucson, Arizona, on Saturday.

After finding himself unexpectedly trailing his Republican opponent John Raese as the campaign entered its final month, Manchin released a 30-second TV spot, which featured him literally shooting the federal cap-and-trade bill - an unpopular piece of legislation to which Raese had sought to link his Democratic opponent.

In the ad, a stone-faced Manchin is seen strutting toward the camera with a rifle in hand before loading his gun and aiming it. "I sued EPA, and I'll take dead aim at the cap-and-trade bill," Manchin said in the ad as he fired a single shot at a copy of the bill.

In a statement to RealClearPolitics, Manchin, who served as West Virginia's governor for six years before winning a special election to take over the seat once held by former Sen. Robert Byrd, defended his record and the ad itself.

"I've spent my whole career bringing people together, avoiding the rancor of partisan politics, and that will continue to be the focus of my work as U.S. Senator going forward," Manchin said in the statement. "The act of a deranged madman who commits a horrific act should not and cannot be confused with a metaphor about a piece of legislation."

In a conference call with reporters on Monday, however, he said he likely wouldn't release the ad today.

"I can't say that we would, I really can't," Manchin said. "Because it's a much more more sensitive thing we're dealing with right now."

When it was released in October, the ad titled "Dead Aim" was widely credited with helping to turn Manchin's campaign around and was praised by many political analysts for being one of the most effective TV spots to air during the 2010 midterms.

But on NBC's "Meet The Press" on Sunday, host David Gregory mentioned the Manchin ad as an example of what he called the "demonization of the other side" that occurs too frequently in American politics.

Gregory also cited to make his point the outburst from Rep. Joe Wilson (R-SC) during a 2009 speech that President Obama delivered to Congress on health care and the link that former Rep. Alan Grayson (D-FL) drew between his Republican opponent and the Taliban.

"I mean, this kind of vitriol on both sides does contribute to that, that demonization," Gregory said.

But in his statement on Monday, Manchin drew a distinction between his own TV ad and political rhetoric that has been directed at specific politicians.

"I have never targeted an individual, and I never would," Manchin said. "This tragedy, I hope, serves as call for common sense, and wake-up call that we should all come together with common purpose to do what is best for our country."

Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney is in the Middle East today in an effort to bone up on foreign policy in advance of a likely second presidential bid.

RealClearPolitics first reported last month that Romney was planning such an expedition.

According to spokesman Eric Fehrnstrom, Romney departed on Friday and will stop in Afghanistan, Israel, Jordan and the United Arab Emirates. He'll meet with Afghanistan President Hamid Karzai, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and King Abdullah II of Jordan.

Romney met with American troops in Kabul this morning.

"The purpose of the trip is not to conduct private diplomacy but to give Gov. Romney a first-hand look at what is happening in an important region of the world," Fehrnstrom said.

"In Afghanistan, Gov. Romney is traveling under the auspices of the International Republican Institute, and as part of his itinerary there he will train Afghans and share with local leaders his views on issues of leadership, public service, economic opportunity and democratic participation," he added.

The American Israel Education Foundation is sponsoring the Israel leg of the trip.