On a late night during the 2006 Alaska gubernatorial campaign, Democratic former Gov. Tony Knowles and Republican-turned-independent candidate Andrew Halcro found themselves sitting next to each other in an exit row on an Alaska Airlines flight back to Anchorage following a debate in Fairbanks.

Halcro and Knowles had a friendly relationship, which was cultivated in part by both men's shared sense of exasperation over their inability to put a chink in the invisible armor that seemed to shield their Republican opponent, the former mayor of Wasilla, Sarah Palin.

While the two men were making small talk on the flight, Halcro, who ended up finishing third in the race, asked Knowles what was the most surprising indicator he found in his campaign's internal polling.

According to Halcro, Knowles replied that he was most astonished by how well Palin performed among well-educated women, and, perhaps more importantly, with moderate to liberal women.

"But that time has passed," Halcro told RealClearPolitics.

Recent polls indeed indicate that while her support among conservative women remains strong, if Palin decides to run for president in 2012, she will have her work cut out for her in rebuilding her image among the independent female voters who helped fuel her 2006 victory and gave the 2008 Republican presidential ticket a double-digit surge among white women in surveys conducted after Palin's electrifying speech at the Republican National Convention in St. Paul.

In a Quinnipiac poll released last month, Palin outperformed her potential Republican male rivals in a theoretical crowded GOP primary field by winning the support of a formidable 25 percent of Republican women. But former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee performed 7 percent better than Palin among all women voters in a hypothetical general election matchup against President Obama.

Of course, any potential presidential candidate must worry first and foremost about winning the primary battle.

Common sense and early poll numbers confirm that Palin is poised to do quite well with Republican women if she runs in 2012. It is not difficult to imagine the inherent advantage -- in terms of optics, at least -- the former Alaska governor would have standing on a debate stage with eight or nine men.

And Palin's future opponents would have to be particularly careful to avoid any signs of arrogance or patronization. Palin would likely pounce on any perceived slights and effectively use them to her advantage.

Still, the nearly successful presidential campaign that Hillary Clinton ran in 2008 would likely mitigate the novelty factor of a viable female candidate in 2012, and Palin would be the first to admit that she would not be able to count on the female vote just because of her gender.

Halcro, who has remained one of the most vocal Palin critics in Alaska, said that he did not prepare any differently in debating Palin simply because she was a woman and insisted that her record as governor of raising taxes on the oil industry and implementing a gas pipeline deal that has uncertain prospects for success will overshadow any built-in advantage she might have among women.

"I think she's going to get treated like one of the boys," Halcro said. "The debates are one thing, but I think you have to portray her as just simply unqualified."

If Palin were to enter the race and become the Republican nominee, her strategy as Sen. John McCain's running mate in 2008 could offer a preview of how she may try to pull off the complex feat of attracting independent female voters without jeopardizing the unique energy she inspires in her core supporters.

On the day she was announced as the vice presidential nominee, Palin spoke glowingly about Hillary Clinton, who she praised for having shown "such determination and grace in her presidential campaign." But when a second reference to Clinton drew boos at a rally in Pennsylvania, Palin stopped referring in her stump speech to the Democrat who came closer to becoming president than any woman in U.S. history.

A poll conducted by EMILY's List last month of female voters who cast their ballot for Obama in 2008 but did not vote for a Democratic congressional candidate in 2010 showed that two-thirds of them have negative feelings about Palin, while just 12 percent have positive feelings about her. Perhaps even more troublesome for Palin, the poll showed that 62 percent of female Obama voters who defected to the GOP in 2010 would again vote for Obama in 2012 if Palin were to become the Republican nominee.

The Palin camp appears to recognize the serious problem the former Alaska governor has among independent women. SarahPAC, Palin's political action committee, produced a two-minute long video in July called "Mama Grizzlies," which appeared to be aimed directly at those voters.

"A lot of women who are very concerned about their kids' future are saying, ‘We don't like this fundamental transformation, and we're going to do something about it,'" Palin said in the ad, which highlighted images of women at Palin rallies. "It seems like it's kind of a mom awakening in the last year-and-a-half where women are rising up and saying, ‘No, we've had enough already because moms kind of just know when something's wrong.'"

Though Palin has maintained her hardline conservative edge in her speeches, tweets and Facebook posts, she has begun to take some steps that could mellow her image and slowly entice independent women to give a second look at the woman whose tenacity and independent streak first attracted them when she rose to the national stage.

Palin's TLC show puts her family life on display to millions of viewers each Sunday night, and she has recently opened herself up to more interviews from mainstream news outlets, including a hospitable, soft feature on "Good Morning America," in which Palin was shown taking a snowmobile ride with reporter Robin Roberts.

"I believe that her tone will simply be in reaching out to a commonsense independent-minded people because essentially she doesn't see herself as a partisan," Palin aide Rebecca Mansour told RealClearPolitics last month in forecasting the former Alaska governor's potential campaign pitch. "She's not interested in party politics, but she's interested in good ideas."

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