The Hill and America's Natural Gas Alliance (ANGA) released 12 polls today of swing districts held by freshmen Democrats.  None of them are particularly good news for the Democrats.  To summarize:

-- AZ 1, Kirkpatrick (D) 39 percent, Gosar (R) 46 percent

-- IL 11, Halvorson (D) 31 percent, Kinzinger (R) 49 percent

-- MD1, Kratovil (D) 40 percent, Harris (R) 43 percent

-- NM2, Teague (D) 42 percent, Pearce (R) 46 percent

-- OH15, Kilroy (D) 38 percent, Stivers (R) 47 percent

-- VA5, Perriello (D) 44 percent, Hurt (R) 45 percent

-- CO4, Markey (D) 41 percent, Gardner (R) 44 percent

-- MI7, Schauer (D) 41 percent, Walberg (R) 41 percent

-- NV3, Titus (D) 44 percent, Heck (R) 47 percent

-- OH16, Boccieri (D) 39 percent, Renacci (R) 42 percent

-- PA3, Dahlkemper (D) 36 percent, Kelly (R) 49 percent

-- VA12, Nye (D) 36 percent, Rigell (R) 42 percent

The headline here is that the Republicans have leads in 11 of these 12 districts, but it is really much worse than that for Democrats.  The rule of thumb is that any incumbent under 50 percent is in trouble, and any incumbent under 45 percent is deep trouble.  The best showing here is 44 percent.  The median score here is 39.5 percent.  Almost all of these incumbents have to be considered underdogs in their re-election battles at this point.

Republican state Senator Bill Brady leads Democratic Gov. Pat Quinn by eight points in the race for the Illinois governorship, according to a new poll from Rasmussen Reports.

The 46 percent to 38 percent advantage for Brady is the largest in a string of recent polls that have shown the race tightening. A Chicago Tribune/WGN-TV poll released October 1 showed Quinn with a one point advantage, and a Suffolk University poll released October 4 had Quinn ahead by six. Brady led by 13 points, 50 percent to 37 percent, in the last Rasmussen Reports poll, which was conducted on September 12. He leads by two points in the RCP Average.

Both candidates have struggled to enthuse voters in a state burdened by a crushing budget deficit and close to 10 percent unemployment. Brady has blasted Quinn for the state of the economy and the state's finances in his ads while Quinn has criticized Brady on social issues such as gun control. Only 39 percent of voters have a favorable opinion of Quinn, whose job approval rating sits at 37 percent. Voters are split on Brady, with an equal 46 percent holding favorable and unfavorable views.

While he has faced some criticism for not offering sufficient details of his plans for the state, Brady has managed to solidify support among his base and leads among nonaffiliated voters. He earns the support of 91 percent of Republicans while Quinn garners the support of only 61 percent of Democrats. Among nonaffiliated voters, Brady leads 53-30.

The Rasmussen Reports poll was conducted October 4 among 500 likely Illinois voters. It has a margin of error of 4.5 percent.

Most analysts, including yours truly, had largely written off the GOP's chances in the Colorado governor's race.  Three things conspired against the GOP.  First, the state's unpopular Democratic governor, Bill Ritter, decided to retire rather than face the voters, so Democrats successfully recruited popular Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper to run.  Second, GOP frontrunner Scott McInnis imploded under the weight of a plagiarism scandal, and the nomination went to Dan Maes, an inexperienced candidate.  Finally, former GOP Rep. Tom Tancredo decided to cast his hat in the ring.  The general consensus was that Tancredo would split the GOP vote with Maes, handing the race over to Hickenlooper.

While a Hickenlooper loss is still very unlikely, there's an increasingly plausible scenario where it could happen.  Since August, Hickenlooper has been stuck at around 45 points in the RCP Average.  This suggests a bit of a ceiling for him -- of course 45 points is more than enough to win a 3-way race.

But lately Maes has begun the hemorrhage voters.  He's dropped from 29.3 percent in September to 17.8 percent today.  At the same time, Tancredo has begun a steady rise in the polls and now stands at 31.8 percent in the RCP Average. A Rasmussen Reports poll released Monday has him just 8 points behind Hickenlooper.

Maes' fundraising has been horrible, while Tancredo has raised quite a bit of money.  Therefore, if Republicans continue to abandon Maes, and Tancredo becomes the consensus alternative to Hickenlooper, this could become a tight race.

At the same time, there's probably a floor for Maes of people who will reflexively vote for the Republican candidate for governor, as well as people who simply don't like Tancredo.  Therefore, a Tancredo win is still a long shot. Still, as long as Maes continues to sink, this race is worth keeping an eye on.

In the state's Senate race, a new poll from Public Policy Polling (D) may give Democrats some hope. The PPP poll released Tuesday shows Bennet in front of Buck by a point, 46 percent to 45 percent.  It is worth pointing out, however, that the PPP poll is only the fifth to show Bennet leading all year; indeed it is only the third poll to show him above 45 percent all year (the other two were also PPP polls). Buck still leads by 4.4 percent in the RCP Average.

Probably the biggest polling news of the day was the Gallup generic ballot poll that showed Republicans leading Democrats 56 percent to 38 percent.  That 18-point lead is predicated upon a "low turnout" scenario, and would represent historic highs for the Republican Party -- it would probably represent the most seats won by either party since the early 70s.

Gallup also produced a model anticipating slightly higher turnout.  Under this model, the Republicans led by 13 points, which is still an historic result in the Gallup model.  Among registered voters, Republicans led by 3 points.

Rasmussen Reports, by contrast, saw the race tightening significantly, with Republicans leading Democrats by only three points, 45 percent to 42 percent.  This represented the closest ballot test in roughly a year.  Of course, the big difference between the two polls is the number of undecideds; it may well be that Democrats are truly stuck at around 40 percent, and undecideds are leaning heavily GOP.

Republican Connecticut Senate nominee Linda McMahon's campaign released a new ad today that slams Democratic opponent Richard Blumenthal for misrepresenting his military service during the Vietnam War.

The ad seeks to revive doubts about the Connecticut attorney general's credibility that have festered since the New York Times revealed in May that Blumenthal claimed repeatedly that he served in Vietnam when he actually received five deferments and served stateside in the Marine Reserve.

The ad comes hours before the candidates are slated to meet in their first debate at the Bushnell Center for the Performing Arts in Hartford. Fox News Channel anchor Bret Baier will moderate the debate, which begins at 7 p.m Eastern.

The ad begins with an announcer asking, "Would you lie about serving in a war?" over a picture of a soldier and sounds of gunfire. A clip of Blumenthal follows, in which he says: "We have learned something important since the days that I served in Vietnam."

The announcer charges that "Dick Blumenthal lied again and again," and ends the ad by asking, "If he lied about Vietnam, what else is he lying about?"

Blumenthal, who earlier this year appeared poised to coast into retiring Sen. Chris Dodd's seat, has seen the big-spending former WWE CEO close to within single digits of him in recent polls. A recent poll from Quinnipiac University showed Blumenthal leading McMahon by just three points, and the latest poll from Rasmussen Reports shows his lead dwindling to five points. However, a Public Policy Polling survey released Monday shows him ahead by 12 percent. He holds a 6.7 point lead in the RCP Average.

McMahon's hard hitting ad comes on the heels of a new DSCC ad hitting McMahon for being a "bad CEO," accusing her of laying off workers and supporting corporate tax breaks.

Blumenthal and McMahon will meet again Thursday at a business forum and next Tuesday for a debate at the Garde Arts Center in New London.

With a month to go until Election Day, Republican Ken Buck has begun to separate himself from incumbent Democrat Michael Bennet in the Colorado Senate race.

The latest Denver Post/SurveyUSA poll, which shows Buck ahead by five points, 48 to 43, comes on the heels of two polls released in the last week by McClatchy/Marist and Rasmussen Reports each showing the Weld County District Attorney ahead by eight points. Buck currently tops Bennet in the RCP Average by 6.5 percent.

Though Bennet and the national Democratic Party have worked to paint Buck as an extremist, Buck enjoys a 5-to-3 advantage among unaffiliated voters. He also has managed to maintain a higher favorability rating than the incumbent. Thirty-seven percent of voters view Buck favorably while 30 percent have a favorable view of Bennet. An equal number of voters (44 percent) have an unfavorable view of both candidates.

In the Colorado governor's race, the Denver Post poll shows Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper maintaining his double-digit advantage over American Constitution Party candidate Tom Tancredo and embattled Republican nominee Dan Maes. Hickenlooper leads with 46 percent, Tancredo wins 34 percent and Maes trails with 15 percent.

The Denver Post/Survey USA poll of 647 likely Colorado voters was conducted September 28-30 and has an error margin of +/- 3.9 percent.

Illinois Democratic Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias has taken a two-point lead over Republican Congressman Mark Kirk in the race for President Obama's old Senate seat, according to the latest Chicago Tribune/WGN-TV poll.

Giannoulias leads Kirk 38 percent to 36 percent. Third-party candidates LeAlan Jones (Green Party) and Mike Labno (Libertarian) attract a combined 8 percent support, and 17 percent of voters remain undecided. Kirk leads in the RCP Average by less than 1 percent.

Both Giannoulias and Kirk have struggled to break away in a race that has been marked by questions about both candidates' character. Giannoulias served as a senior loan officer for his family's Broadway Bank, which gave $20 million in loans to convicted felons and was shut down earlier this year by the FDIC. He denies any involvement in the questionable loans.

Kirk has admitted embellishing his military record, and, a month from Election Day, finds his favorability ratings headed in the wrong direction. Thirty-two percent of voters now have an unfavorable view of the congressman, an increase of 13 percent since the last Tribune/WGN poll released last month. Twenty-three percent have a favorable opinion of Kirk. Thirty-one percent view Giannoulias favorably, and the same amount view him unfavorably. Thirty-five percent of voters say Giannoulias is the more trustworthy of the two while 30 percent say the same for Kirk.

The survey of 600 likely voters was conducted from September 24 through 28. It has a margin of error of +/- 4 percent.

During the late summer, it seemed that Florida CFO Alex Sink was poised to be the state's next governor, giving the Democrats a valuable pick-up in one of the most important swing states in the country. She led handily in most polls, and her opponent, Rick Scott, had emerged battered from a fierce primary against Attorney General Bill McCollum. At one point in mid-September, Sink led by 6 points in the RCP Average.

But the worm seems to have turned, and now Scott leads by 1.6 points in the RCP Average. What changed?

Two things: First, pollsters started imposing a likely voter screen. Of the five polls in the present RCP Average, two are using likely voter screens for the first time. In an environment like this where Republicans are quite a bit more likely to respond that they are going to vote than are Democrats, such a switch will make the polling average appear to move rightward, even if the mood of the electorate is essentially unchanged.

The second thing that has changed is that Scott has probably solidified his base. Sink's numbers have actually been quite stable. Likely voter polls have had her around the mid-40s percent since mid-August. Scott's numbers, on the other hand, have moved from the low 40s to where they are now, approaching 50.

I suspect that since Sink did not have major primary opposition, as Scott did, she did not have any problems consolidating the support of her base at the outset. Scott, however, probably had to win over some McCollum voters. The latest Quinnipiac poll suggests that both candidates are now at parity, with about 87 percent of their respective parties voting for them. This stands in contrast with a mid-August PPP (D) poll showing Scott receiving only 57 percent of the Republican vote, while Sink received 72 percent of the Democratic vote. The comparison isn't perfect, since independent Bud Chiles was in the race at the time, but Chiles seems to have drawn Republicans and Democrats to his cause almost equally.

So this isn't really so much a story of Sink sinking as it is Scott rising.

It's been a rough year for Democrats, but there has been one recent ray of sunshine for the party: Barbara Boxer's polling numbers.  Boxer spent most of the cycle around 45 percent in the RCP Average, and by mid-August had dropped to 43.8 percent.  Her numbers recovered in September but so did her opponent's -- at one point Fiorina was within .3 points of Boxer in the RCP Average.  This is very, very dangerous territory for any incumbent.

But around that time, the trend in the race reversed itself, and Boxer began to pull away.  Her lead has now grown to 6.9 points in the RCP Average.  Most polls are even showing her lead outside the error margin.

But even this bit of good news for Democrats comes with a caveat.  Boxer's lead coincides with her going up on the airwaves in mid-September -- and her numbers haven't improved so much as Fiorina's have declined.  A similar phenomenon occurred in Washington State, where Dino Rossi's numbers now seem to have turned around a bit now that he is also on the air.  Fiorina went on the air last week; it remains to be seen whether the same phenomenon manifests itself in California.