With Democratic candidates falling behind in Nevada and West Virginia, all eyes are turning to Washington State, where control for the Senate could well be decided on November 2.  Patty Murray is presently clinging to a 0.5 percent lead in the polls - but even that understates the precariousness of her situation.

Shortly after Labor Day, Murray went up on the air, and went negative on her opponent, Dino Rossi.  She jumped out to a substantial lead.  But that lead was largely a result of driving Rossi's numbers downward.

Rossi is now counterpunching, and the race has closed.  Every poll since mid-May has been within the error margin, and three straight samples  - two from Rasmussen and one from the Republican firm of Fabrizio, McLaughlin & Associates - have now showed her trailing Rossi.  In the meantime, Rossi reported that he raised $4.4 million in the last quarter, ensuring that he will have sufficient cash to spend on advertising down the stretch.

At the end of the day, Murray is an incumbent polling well below 50 percent with some 25 days to go until Election Day - which is an extremely dangerous position to be in. The fact that it's happening in Washington State - which gave Barack Obama 58% in 2008 - and that it may be the decisive race for the control of the Senate shows just how dramatically the landscape has shifted against the Democrats in the past twenty two months.

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