Most analysts, including yours truly, had largely written off the GOP's chances in the Colorado governor's race.  Three things conspired against the GOP.  First, the state's unpopular Democratic governor, Bill Ritter, decided to retire rather than face the voters, so Democrats successfully recruited popular Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper to run.  Second, GOP frontrunner Scott McInnis imploded under the weight of a plagiarism scandal, and the nomination went to Dan Maes, an inexperienced candidate.  Finally, former GOP Rep. Tom Tancredo decided to cast his hat in the ring.  The general consensus was that Tancredo would split the GOP vote with Maes, handing the race over to Hickenlooper.

While a Hickenlooper loss is still very unlikely, there's an increasingly plausible scenario where it could happen.  Since August, Hickenlooper has been stuck at around 45 points in the RCP Average.  This suggests a bit of a ceiling for him -- of course 45 points is more than enough to win a 3-way race.

But lately Maes has begun the hemorrhage voters.  He's dropped from 29.3 percent in September to 17.8 percent today.  At the same time, Tancredo has begun a steady rise in the polls and now stands at 31.8 percent in the RCP Average. A Rasmussen Reports poll released Monday has him just 8 points behind Hickenlooper.

Maes' fundraising has been horrible, while Tancredo has raised quite a bit of money.  Therefore, if Republicans continue to abandon Maes, and Tancredo becomes the consensus alternative to Hickenlooper, this could become a tight race.

At the same time, there's probably a floor for Maes of people who will reflexively vote for the Republican candidate for governor, as well as people who simply don't like Tancredo.  Therefore, a Tancredo win is still a long shot. Still, as long as Maes continues to sink, this race is worth keeping an eye on.

In the state's Senate race, a new poll from Public Policy Polling (D) may give Democrats some hope. The PPP poll released Tuesday shows Bennet in front of Buck by a point, 46 percent to 45 percent.  It is worth pointing out, however, that the PPP poll is only the fifth to show Bennet leading all year; indeed it is only the third poll to show him above 45 percent all year (the other two were also PPP polls). Buck still leads by 4.4 percent in the RCP Average.

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