This morning, RCW announced they will begin publishing an Early Morning Update Monday through Friday as well as a "Best of Blogs" section every afternoon to give readers an even more comprehensive look at world affairs.

Also on RCW this morning, Todd Crowell writes about Naoto Kan and Ichiro Ozawa's battle for supremacy in the Democratic Party of Japan.

On RCP, Thomas Sowell writes that while President Obama blames President Bush for the budget deficit he inherited, Congress, which has been controlled by the Democrats since 2006, is actually more to blame.

On RCP's Election 2010 page, Scott Conroy reports that Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal declined to endorse Republican Sen. David Vitter over the weekend. Also, Erin McPike writes that some Republicans are concerned about the governing agenda House Republicans plan to release later this month. Also, Sean Trende digs into some recent polls.

And on RCS, Jeff Neuman takes a fresh look at baseball's Triple Crown.

This post resumes a series we were running in the spring. We'll keep a running commentary on the most recent polls, digging down into their internals, keeping an eye on the big picture, and helping to sort out what these polls are really telling us about November.

Senate

Ohio - The big news over the weekend was the Columbus Dispatch poll showing Republicans overwhelmingly ahead in Ohio. The Columbus Dispatch poll is a mail-in poll and therefore something of a S.L.O.P., but it usually manages to get pretty close to the right number. This is a poll of registered voters, but the enthusiasm gap, which would normally cause Republicans to respond in greater numbers than Democrats, probably offsets this. There are slightly more Republicans than Democrats, which sounds about right for a year like this.

Republican Rob Portman leads Democrat Lee Fisher 50 percent to 37 percent. Among those with no party affiliation, Portman leads 52 percent to 23 percent. He's even winning 25 percent of those voters who voted for Ted Strickland in his landslide win over Kenneth Blackwell in 2006. He's carrying all regions of the state, including the heavily Democratic northwest (Cleveland, Youngstown, Akron).

Portman leads by 8.3 points in the RCP Average. Fisher needs to change the dynamics of this race quickly, as it is really starting to get away from him.

Kentucky - SurveyUSA shows Republican Rand Paul leading Attorney General Jack Conway 55 percent to 40 percent - an ever-increasing lead in SurveyUSA's polls. What's interesting here is that Conway's numbers are stable, coming in at around 40 percent in almost every poll taken this cycle. Paul's numbers jump around depending on the pollster, which typically suggests that undecideds are leaning his way.

Idaho - There's not a whole lot of suspense here, but Republican Senator Mike Crapo leads financial consultant Tom Sullivan 63 percent to 24 percent, according to Rasmussen Reports. Crapo's numbers have fallen off a bit from previous polling, but this can't really be called a tightening race in any meaningful sense of the word at this point.

Governor

Ohio - The second half of the Columbus Dispatch poll tested Democratic Governor Ted Strickland against former Congressman John Kasich. It finds Kasich leading 49 percent to 37 percent. The numbers mirror the Senate race numbers, with Strickland only receiving the votes of 2/3 of those who voted for him in 2006.

The rest of the Democratic ticket is in similar danger of being dragged under, with Republicans leading most of the statewide offices, although some of the leads are slim. This has important consequences for the 2010 redistricting, when Ohio will probably lose two House seats. Of course with numbers like these, the Democratic numbers in the Ohio delegation will probably be severely reduced; six of the states ten Democrats are in territory that is marginally Democratic or worse.

Kasich leads Strickland 49.8 percent to 39 percent in the RCP Average. It would be a comeback rivaling Lazarus if Strickland were to win.

Nebraska - Barring some type of massive scandal, Republican Dave Heineman will still be governor of Nebraska in 2011. He leads Mike Meister 61 percent to 28 percent, according to Rasmussen Reports.

This 33 point lead is down from a 55 point lead from July, but Meister was pretty much guaranteed to get most of the 33 percent who approve of the job the President is doing.

Let's just say Andrew Ferguson doesn't have the warm and cuddlies for Peter Beinart and leave it at that, shall we?

Chris Rovzar of New York Magazine on his interview with Arianna Huffington:

An assistant brings us coffee. Huffington asks for a Stevia, which begins a lengthy search of drawers. “We don't have a hierarchy in our operation,” Huffington continues. “I see everything as a team, and I love empowering people.” The assistant is now on her hands and knees, rooting through Huffington's bag. She finds a Stevia.

In one of the most competitive Senate races this year, Democrat Alexi Giannoulias and Republican Mark Kirk remain locked in a heated battle for President Barack Obama's old Senate seat in Illinois.

Giannoulias and Kirk, both of whom have been dogged throughout the campaign by controversy, are tied at 34 percent in a new Chicago Tribune/WGN-TV poll, while more than one in five voters remain undecided. Green Party candidate LeAlan Jones earns the support of 6 percent of voters, and Libertarian Party candidate Mike Labno earns 3 percent.

Giannoulias, the state's treasurer, continues to suffer politically as a result of his association with his family's failed Broadway Bank, which was shut down by the FDIC earlier this year and made $20 million in loans to convicted felons. Giannoulias served as senior loan officer for the bank but denies involvement in the controversial loans, some of which occurred after he departed the bank to run for treasurer. Still, he faces an uphill battle with voters. Twenty-eight percent of voters have an unfavorable opinion of him while only 22 percent have a favorable opinion.

Kirk, a five term Congressman from the 10th district, has work of his own to do. A moderate Republican who supported the "cap and trade" energy bill, Kirk has yet to shore up support among conservative voters - 36 percent of whom say they have no opinion on the candidate. Additionally, Kirk has faced a wave of criticism for embellishing his military record and biography. Still, bolstered in a favorable year for Republicans, Kirk leads Giannoulias 34-23 among independent voters. He also benefits from a four-to-one cash-on-hand advantage over Giannoulias.

An interesting quirk of this race is that the winner will likely be headed to Washington immediately following election day. A court ruled that the state should have held a special election to fill Obama's seat (then-Gov. Rod Blagojevich instead appointed Roland Burris). Therefore, voters will vote for the same candidates twice on the November ballot -- once to fill the remainder of Burris' term and again for the full six-year Senate term. A Kirk win would provide Republicans with a bulwark against any actions a rumored lame-duck session of Congress may try to take.

The Chicago Tribune/WGN-TV survey of 600 registered likely voters was conducted August 28 through Wednesday. It has a margin of error of 4 percentage points.

Two weeks ago, SurveyUSA caused a stir when it released a post-primary poll finding Washington Republican Senate candidate Dino Rossi up seven points over incumbent Democratic Senator Patty Murray. Rasmussen Reports now weighs in with a poll confirming that result. Its most recent survey of the race (8/31, 500 LVs, MOE +/- 4.5%) finds Rossi leading Murray 48 percent to 46 percent. As something of an ominous sign for Murray, when leaners are included, Rossi's lead grows to a three-point, 50 percent to 47 percent advantage.

While Washington voters have a generally favorable view of Murray (about 50 percent view her favorably), President Obama has an upside-down approval rating of 48 percent approve to 50 percent disapprove. Democratic Governor Christine Gregoire fares a bit worse, with a 42 percent/54 percent approve/disapprove split. while 59 percent report being angry with Washington's policies, and a hair raising 44 percent do not believe that their current representative is doing a good job.

In this environment, Murray is doing quite well by keeping it close. But the Rasmussen poll nevertheless moves Rossi in the lead in the RCP average. Republicans now lead in the races for all of their Senate seats, and lead in eight Senate seats presently held by Democrats. Republicans need to capture 10 Senate seats to take the majority.

I've tried not to wade too far into the Ground Zero Mosque debate, but let me just go out on a limb right here and now and say that one particular protest tactic seems... misguided. Here's the Gawker headline:

Mosque Protesters Now Pointing Old, Rented Missiles at Park51

Granted, it's been decommissioned, but Come On, people. Surely you can protest a mosque without dragging explosives into it.

The Republican-oriented American Action Forum has been polling across the country, in an attempt to gauge where certain competitive House races stand. Their latest round covers districts in the West. The results:

-AZ-01: Republican Paul Gosar leads Democratic incumbent Ann Kirkpatrick 47 percent to 41 percent.

-AZ-05: Republican Dave Schweikert leads Democratic incumbent Harry Mitchell 50 percent to 44 percent.

-AZ-08: Republican Jesse Kelly ties Democratic incumbent Gabby Giffords at 46 percent.

-CA-11: Repbulican David Harmer leads Democratic incumbent Jerry McNerney 45 percent to 44 percent.

-CA-47: Republican Van Tran trails Democratic incumbent Loretta Sanchez 45 percent to 43 percent.

-CO-03: Republican Scott Tipton leads Democratic incumbent John Salazar 51 percent to 43 percent.

-CO-04: Republican Cory Gardner leads Democratic incumbent Betsy Markey 50 percent to 39 percent.

-NM-01: Republican Jon Barela trails Democratic incumbent Martin Heinrich 49 to 42 percent.

-NV-03: Republican Joe Heck leads Democratic incumbent Dina Titus 48 percent to 45 percent.

-OR-05: Republican Scott Bruun trails Democratic incumbent Kurt Schrader 44 percent to 36 percent.

If these numbers were to come from an independent source, the safe conclusion would be that all of these Democrats except for Heinrich were likely to lose. All are below 50 percent against largely unknown competition. But we do have to account for the fact that AAF is a Republican-oriented polling outfit, and the ballot test question is asked after a bunch of favorable/unfavorable questions that could bias the results somewhat. On the other hand, we have independent polls in NV-03 and NM-01 that are consistent with the AAF findings, and AAF's poll of VA-05 showed a much closer race than SurveyUSA is showing there. I'd evaluate these polls with some skepticism, but I wouldn't outright dismiss them as partisan polling either.

What a difference two years makes.

2008:

2010:

A pair of polls today suggest that incumbent Ohio Democratic Governor Ted Strickland finds himself in deep trouble.

This morning, Rasmussen Reports released a survey finding former Republican Congressman John Kasich leading Strickland 52 percent to 40 percent. A 53 percent majority disapprove of the way Strickland is handling his job as governor, and an even more stark 59 percent of Ohioans disapprove of the job President Obama is doing while only 39 percent approve.

Also today, the Democratic polling firm PPP released a survey of Ohio voters showing nearly identical numbers. Kasich leads Strickland by 10 points, 50 percent to 40 percent, representing a noticeable shift in Kasich's favor from PPP's last survey in late June which had him leading Strickland by just three points, 45 to 42. PPP shows 52 percent of Ohioans disapprove of the job Strickland is doing as governor.

While PPP didn't ask what President Obama's job approval was, it asked a variant that produced a particularly jarring result. When asked whether they would rather have George W. Bush or Barack Obama as president, Ohio voters preferred President Bush over Obama by an eight point margin, 50 percent to 42 percent.

Needless to say, this finding undercuts what was going to be a major line of attack for Democrats in Ohio and around the country: tying Republican candidate to President Bush.

Overall, Kasich now leads Strickland by 10.3 percent in the RCP Average.