Republican businessman John Raese has pulled to within five points of Democratic West Virginia Governor Joe Manchin in the race for the late Robert Byrd's Senate seat, according to a new poll from Rasmussen Reports.

Rasmussen surveyed 500 likely West Virginia voters on Wednesday and found Manchin leading Raese 50 percent to 45 percent. He led by six points, 48-42, in a Rasmussen Reports poll taken on August 29.

Once considered an easy hold for the Democrats, Manchin suddenly faces a competitive race that could decide which party controls the Senate. Raese, who has lost two previous runs for the Senate, has worked to tie Manchin to President Obama, who is viewed unfavorably by 62 percent of West Virginia voters, according to the survey.

Still, 67 percent of voters approve of the job Manchin is doing as governor. Therefore, despite the closing of the polls, Raese faces an uphill climb against the popular, socially conservative governor.

The Rasmussen poll has a margin of error of +/- 4.5 percentage points.

Most people have probably come across stories this morning detailing how health care costs are projected to keep rising, despite the passage of the reform package earlier this year.  But here's one story you may not have seen, from this morning's Des Moines Register:

New high-risk insurance pool draws only a few applicants

Few Iowans are showing interest in a new state health insurance program for people with medical conditions, such as cancer, diabetes or high blood pressure.

Such high-risk pools are among the first programs to take effect under the federal health reform law. When the Iowa pool opened early last month, there was some concern that it would be unable to meet demand. Federal experts estimated that 34,500 Iowans would qualify, but the federal government provided enough money to cover only about 975 of them.

However, the program has received just 32 applications so far.

Cecil Bykerk, executive director of the effort, said he was surprised by the lack of interest. "We thought it would take off a little bit faster," he said.

The article reports that the lack of interest can be explained, in part, by uncertainty and confusion. Instead of expanding Iowa's existing high risk pool, the federal health care reform law requires people to sign up for new high risk pools.

The DM Register also reports:

Twenty-two states, most of which have Republican governors, declined to set up new high-risk pools under the federal health-reform law pushed by President Barack Obama. Hall said their biggest concern about the idea seemed to be that states could wind up on the hook if the federal money failed to be sufficient for everyone who would sign up.

On RCP's Election 2010 page, Sean Trende offers some insight into yesterday's Senate, Governor and House polls.

On RCM, Diana Furchtgott-Roth assesses President Obama's economic proposals, and John Tamny argues that they won't work.

Finally, on RCS, Jeff Neuman makes 10 predictions for the NFL season, which kicks off tonight in New Orleans.

Daniel Malloy of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette gets a bit out in front of the news with this lede on Rick Santorum:

Senate

Florida - CNN/Time parachuted in with five polls of registered voters yesterday. The first poll was of the Florida Senate race, and it finds Republican Marco Rubio leading Independent Charlie Crist and Democrat Kendrick Meek 36 percent to 34 percent to 24 percent. How this plays out in the general election is anyone's guess: While a switch from registered voters to likely voters typically benefits a Republican vis-à-vis a Democrat, the dynamics of a three-way race are less well established. Still, Rubio has to feel good that he's now led in three polls in a row. None of these polls offers more than a topline, so there's not too much more to do with them. Rubio leads by 2.3 points in the RCP Average.

California - CNN/Time also finds Democratic Senator Barbara Boxer leading Carly Fiorina by 4 points. If you assume that a likely voter screen would improve the Republicans' numbers by 2 or 3 points, this poll is perfectly consistent with the previous Rasmussen Reports and SurveyUSA polls showing Fiorina with a narrow lead. Boxer leads by 2.5 points in the RCP Average.

Kentucky - Rasmussen Reports, consistent with SurveyUSA, shows a 15-point lead for Republican Rand Paul over Democratic Attorney General Jack Conway, 54 percent to 39 percent. CNN/Time, on the other hand, shows a 46-46 tie. The 46 percent for Conway in CNN/Time is his best showing of the entire campaign - this looks like an outlier, even among registered voter polls. Paul leads by 8.8 points in the RCP Average.

Governor

Arizona - There had been some speculation that Arizona could move toward the Democrats in the wake of Jan Brewer's debate meltdown. Rasmussen Reports finds nothing of the sort, putting Brewer, the Republican, up by 22 points over Attorney General Terry Goddard. This is actually the largest lead she has posted this cycle. She leads by 13 points in the RCP Average.

Florida - CNN/Time finds Democrat Alex Sink leading Republican Rick Scott 49 percent to 42 percent. Again, given that this is a poll of registered voters, this isn't a huge comfort for Sink, and the race is probably pretty close to tied in the electorate CNN/Time is sampling. Sink leads by 4.8 points in the RCP Average, although most of those polls were taken before Bud Chiles dropped out of the race and endorsed Sink.

California - Oddly enough, the two polls of the California Governor's race - CNN/Time and Rasmussen - see almost identical results, even though one poll is of registered voters and one is of likely voters. Rasmussen sees a 48/45 lead for Meg Whitman over Gerry Brown, while CNN/Time sees a 48/46 lead for Whitman. Mind you, Brown has held elected office in California since the Nixon Administration, so it isn't really clear that he has much room for growth. Whitman leads by 1.5 points in the RCP Average.

House

Several more campaign polls (and a few straightforward House polls) were released. But first, Democratic polling firm Democracy Corps shows Republicans with a 7-point lead among likely voters, 49 percent to 42 percent. This is consistent with 1994, when Republicans won by seven points. The big question is going to be, where does that ten percent undecided vote go?

We Ask America - a previously obscure polling outfit that has been doing the heavy lifting on House races this year (and which was one of the few polling outfits to get the PA-12 special election right) - polled Illinois' 17th Congressional District. To summarize: liberal Democrat Lane Evans won the blue collar district in 1982, and managed to hold on for two decades. In 2002, he received an oddly-shaped, Democratic-leaning district. He retired in 2006, and Phil Hare won the district. It is Democratic, but not overwhelmingly so: Obama received 57 percent of the vote, while George Bush almost carried it in 2004.

Hare pretty much voted the Democratic line since coming to Congress, which isn't a particularly popular thing to do in this blue collar, swing district. It isn't entirely surprising therefore that he's trailing his opponent 38 percent to 41 percent; what is surprising is that he's trailing a relatively unknown pizza restaurant owner who finished the second quarter with $200,000 in the bank. It's just that kind of year for Democrats.

Here's a rundown of the campaign polls that were released:

NC-08 (POS (R)): Kissell (D) 39 percent, Johnson (R) 34 percent;

NC-04 (Action Solutions (R)): Price (D) 46 percent, Lawson (R) 47 percent;

WV-01 (POS (R)): Oliverio (D) 41 percent, McKinley (R) 36 percent;

MI-01 (TargetPoint (R)): Gary McDowell (D) 31 percent, Dan Benishek (R) 54 percent.

The NC-04 poll is especially jarring. Price was one of the surprise losers in 1994, but the district was redrawn by Democrats in 2002, and it gave John Kerry 55 percent of the vote and Barack Obama 62 percent of the vote. Again, campaign polls tend to show candidates at their best, so Price is probably somewhere right above 50 percent. But he should really be close to 60 percent, even in this environment.

Interestingly, the MI-01 poll is pretty consistent with a We Ask America poll from a few weeks back. This one looks like it could be getting away from the Democrats.

Former eBay CEO Meg Whitman holds a three-point lead over Democrat Jerry Brown in the race for the California governorship, according to a new poll from Rasmussen Reports.

After relying largely on union supporters to keep Whitman at bay through the summer, Brown, who served as the state's governor from 1975-1983, has taken a more active role in campaigning as the fall election approaches. He launched his first TV ad this week and held a rally in Oakland last week.

California Working Families, a union-backed independent expenditure committee, spent $8.7 million hammering Whitman over the summer in an attempt to keep Brown close in the polls as Whitman continued to saturate the airwaves. She has spent $104 million of her own money on the campaign so far.

Brown's supporters succeeded in keeping him within striking distance. Whitman leads Brown 48 percent to 45 percent in the Rasmussen poll, which is down from her 51-43 advantage in the previous Rasmussen poll taken August 24. She leads by a mere 1.3 percentage points in the RCP Average.

While the race remains tight, Whitman's big spending summer seems to have helped her put a dent in Brown's favorability ratings. Thirty-six percent of voters surveyed said they have a very unfavorable view of the former governor. Twenty-eight percent said they view Whitman very unfavorably. Additionally, 55 percent of voters view Whitman either very or somewhat favorably, but only 45 percent say the same for Brown.

For this poll, Rasmussen Reports surveyed 750 likely California voters on Monday. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 4 percent.

On RCP's Election 2010 page, Scott Conroy writes that Democratic House candidates are hesitant to embrace President Obama's proposed $50 billion infrastructure plan. Erin McPike reports that Republican Governors Association Chairman Haley Barbour effectively conceded the Colorado governor's race Wednesday in an appearance at a Christian Science Monitor breakfast. She also writes about the Democrats' attempt to capitalize on a recent Gallup generic ballot poll that showed the parties tied among registered voters.

On RCM, Steven Malanga writes about the fact that nine years after 9/11, commerce has yet to resume at Ground Zero.

And on RCS, Art Spander writes that Tiger Woods may be motivated to prove himself on the Ryder Cup team.

Senate

Colorado -- A new poll, conducted jointly by a Republican polling firm and a Democratic polling firm, has Democratic Senator Michael Bennet up 43 percent to 40 percent over Ken Buck. This is still pretty grim news for Bennet, who has been below 46 percent in every poll conducted by someone other than PPP (D). The undecideds in this poll are mostly Independents, who have tended to break toward Republicans in polls this year; this could explain the difference between this poll and, say, Rasmussen, which shows a 49 percent to 40 percent advantage for Buck.

Delaware - Rasmussen Reports shows Republican Mike Castle still under 50 percent, leading Chris Coons 48 percent to 37 percent. This is worrisome for a longtime incumbent, facing off against an unknown opponent in a state that isn't exactly favorably inclined toward his party. Still, he fares much better than his primary challenger, Christine O'Donnell, who trails Coons 36 percent to 47 percent.

Washington - Democratic polling firm Fairbanks Maslin, polling for the Murray campaign, shows Senator Patty Murray leading Dino Rossi 50 percent to 45 percent. On its face, this is inconsistent with most recent polling, which tends to show a Rossi lead. But reading between the lines it makes sense -- campaign polls tend to show the candidates at the extremes of the error margin in their "best case scenario" - mentally subtracting 3 points from Murray and adding 3 points to Rossi gives a result perfectly consistent with what other polls are showing. Rossi leads by 2.3 points in the RCP Average.

California - Rasmussen Reports shows Carly Fiornia leading Democratic Senator Barbara Boxer 48 percent to 47 percent. This represents an improvement for Fiorina from earlier Rasmussen polling, which has shown Boxer leading by five or so. Still, this is California, and 55 percent of voters at least somewhat approve of the job the President is doing. It's also worth noting that for the second poll in a row, "leaners" have broken toward Boxer when pushed; the undecideds may break her way. Boxer leads by two in the RCP Average.

House

Yesterday was a big day for House race polls (I discussed the generic ballot findings here). SurveyUSA showed Republican Dave Reichert with the first big lead of his career (54 percent to 41 percent); this is consistent with the recent open primary results, where Republicans combined for almost 60 percent of the vote.

It was also poll dump day for House campaigns. Democratic campaigns signaled the start of election season by releasing the following polls, en masse. I'm not linking all of these, since campaign polls should be taken with a grain of salt, and since there aren't any internals or discussion for most of these. The incumbent is listed first; open seats are appropriately noted:

IL-10 (Open, Kirk (R)): Seals (D) 49%, Dold (R) 36%;
KS-04 (Open, Tiahrt (R)): Goyle (D) 47%, Pompeo (R) 50%;
MS-1: Childers (D) 46%, Nunnelee (R) 41%;
VA-5: Perriello (D) 44%, Hurt (R) 46%;
NY-24: Arcuri (D) 50%, Hanna (R) 37%;
SD-AL: Herseth-Sandlin (D) 50%, Noem (R) 39%;
AL-02: Bright (D) 52%, Roby (R) 43%;
NC-08: Kissell (D) 48%, Johnson (R) 36%;
PA-04: Altmire (D) 51%, Rothfus (R) 24%;

These polls are really not particularly good news for Democratic incumbents. Remember, campaign polls tend to represent the best case scenario for the candidate. If the best case scenario for these incumbent candidates is being at or below 50 percent of the vote against relative unknowns, it is not a good sign. Especially at risk is Tom Perriello, whose own polling apparently shows him losing.

As to the open races, Goyle is trailing his opponent in a heavily Republican district, even in the best case scenario. Things look better for Seals, but he's run twice before in this district; if we assume his "real" number is around 45, that's still not spectacular (but not awful, either). He's still the favorite at this point, but this should tighten.

A pair of Republican campaigns also released polls. State Rep. Sandy Adams' campaigns shows her leading Rep. Suzanne Kosmas 49 percent to 37 percent. Even assuming this is a best case scenario, it paints a pretty bleak picture for Kosmas, who is surely under 50 percent. In Connecticut's 5th District, represented by Nancy Johnson until 2006, challenger Sam Caliguri shows himself a point behind Chris Murphy, 40 percent to 39 percent. Again, this is a campaign poll, so caveat lector, but it seems that Murphy is also below 50 percent.

Four generic polls have come in over the past few days which generally contained bad news for Democrats. Rasmussen Reports showed Republicans with a 12 point lead, 48 percent to 36 percent, tying their previous best showing. CNN showed Republicans up by seven, an improvement from their earlier 48 percent/45 percent lead. Since Rasmussen polls likely voters, while CNN polls registered voters, these polls are actually rather consistent. Republicans typically fare a couple points better among the actual electorate than registered voter polls would suggest.

Perhaps the biggest shock came from the ABC News/Washington Post poll, which showed Republicans leading 47 percent to 45 percent among registered voters, a swing of five points in the Republicans' direction since June. But among likely voters, Republicans led by 13 points, 53 percent to 40 percent. This is an improvement of nine net points from July. Though this is a slightly better swing from a registered voter sample to a likely voter sample than we might expect, it is certainly consistent with Gallup's measurement of the enthusiasm gap.

In its poll, Gallup showed the parties tied among registered voters, which is relatively good news for Democrats. But even this is consistent with a 1994-style result since the Republicans are probably up by about five points in the actual electorate thanks to their 25-point edge in enthusiasm.

In the California Senate race, Republican Carly Fiorina has pulled ahead of incumbent Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer, according to the latest poll from Rasmussen Reports. Fiorina leads Boxer by a mere 1 percentage point in the survey of 750 likely California voters. The 48-47 lead is the first for the former Hewlett-Packard CEO in Rasmussen's polling of the race.

This poll comes on the heels of a SurveyUSA poll released last week that showed Fiorina ahead by 2 percent. However, Boxer still leads in the RCP Average by two points.

The candidates faced each other for the first time in a debate last week, sparring over a wide range of issues -- from the economy to the environment. While Fiorina attempted to paint Boxer as the embodiment of an out-of-touch Washington political class, Boxer hammered Fiorina for her tenure at HP, where she was forced out in 2005.

Boxer, who was first elected in 1992, faces her toughest opponent yet in Fiorina as well as the most challenging political environment for Democrats in decades. Forty-one percent of voters polled by Rasmussen have a very unfavorable view of Boxer, and only 20 percent view her very favorably. Still, California remains a solidly Democratic state and, according to the Rasmussen poll, 55 percent of voters approve of President Obama's job performance.

The poll was conducted Monday and has a margin of error of +/- 4 percentage points.