The latest Public Policy Polling (D) results suggest that Christine O'Donnell faces an uphill battle in her race for Vice President Joe Biden's old Senate seat in Delaware. In a poll of 958 likely Delaware voters conducted this weekend, PPP found that Democrat Chris Coons leads O'Donnell 50 percent to 34 percent.

The poll also found that Rep. Mike Castle, whom O'Donnell defeated yesterday in the primary, would have begun the general election effort with only a 10 point lead, 45 percent to 35 percent. RCP had rated the race as Leaning Republican because Castle was struggling to garner more than 50 percent support in earlier surveys against Coons.

The principle challenge O'Donnell faces is convincing Delaware voters that she is qualified to be a U.S. senator. According to the PPP survey, 49 percent of the electorate doesn't believe that O'Donnell is fit to hold public office. In head-to-head matchups, Castle would have garnered 30 percent of Democrats, 64 percent of Republicans, and 45 percent of Independents, compared to 54/16/27 for Coons. We see very different numbers for the O'Donnell/Coons race, with O'Donnell getting just 13 percent of Democrats and 36 percent of Independents, with 61 percent of Republicans backing her. Even if she manages to get Republicans to come home, she'll still trail Coons (who will presumably get a number of undecided Independents and Demcorats).

Altogether, this race moves from leaning toward a Republican pickup to a likely Democratic hold.

Just released statement from John Cornyn, head of the National Republican Senatorial Committee:

“Let there be no mistake: The National Republican Senatorial Committee – and I personally as the committee's chairman – strongly stand by all of our Republican nominees, including Christine O'Donnell in Delaware.

“I reached out to Christine this morning, and as I have conveyed to all of our nominees, I offered her my personal congratulations and let her know that she has our support. This support includes a check for $42,000 – the maximum allowable donation that we have provided to all of our nominees – which the NRSC will send to her campaign today.

“We remain committed to holding Democrat nominee New Castle County Executive Chris Coons accountable this November, as we inform voters about his record of driving his county to the brink of bankruptcy and supporting his party's reckless spending policies in Washington.

“In the weeks ahead, we will decide where to best allocate additional financial resources among the large number of competitive races at stake this November. While it's not in Republicans' interest to advertise our spending strategy to our opponents, it's worth noting that just yesterday, the NRSC's first independent expenditure ad aired in support of Dr. Rand Paul's campaign in Kentucky, where we firmly believe that he will win in November.

“It remains to be seen whether national Democrats will provide a similar level of support for many of their nominees, including in key battleground states like Indiana, Ohio, Florida, Arkansas, Illinois, and New Hampshire, among others. The Democrats' indecision reflects the fact that Republicans are on offense in at least 12 Democrat-held states and we are leading in the polls in seven of those 12 states.

“Finally, on the matter of the New Hampshire Senate race, while the results remain outstanding, we continue to monitor the Republican primary race, and we stand ready to fully support whichever candidate is chosen as the nominee.”

On RCP's Election 2010 page, Scott Conroy talks with Delaware Republican Senate candidate Christine O'Donnell, and Sean Trende digs into the latest polls.

On RCP, Thomas Sowell writes about the futile pursuit of "social justice" using government policies.

On RCM, Josh Barro argues in favor of some of Peter Orszag's fiscal proposals, and John Tamny reviews "The Monetary Conservative" by Christopher Chivvis.

And on RCS, Tim Joyce recaps Rafael Nadal's win at the U.S. Open.

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell hit the Buckeye State on Thursday to raise money for GOP Senate nominee Rob Portman and the National Republican Senatorial Committee in North Canton, Ohio.

McConnell's event came just a day after President Obama made a high-profile speech just north of North Canton, in Cleveland and not long after his counterpart in the House, Minority Leader John Boehner, delivered an address on the economy.

But even as McConnell awaits a potential promotion to majority leader should his party pick up the necessary 10 seats this November, he's kept a lower profile than Boehner, who has been previewing a potential speakership.

McConnell appeared on CNN's “John King USA” on Thursday and noted that he met with Obama before the August congressional recess. “I thought he had the feeling he was going to be talk to me a lot more often in the future, and I think the reason he thinks that is because he thinks I'm going to be the leader of the larger group,” McConnell said.

McConnell also indicated in the interview that he has the votes within the Republican conference to be the leader, whether he's leading a minority or a majority. And that may be the reason he has been less visible than Boehner – who could receive a leadership challenge – even as he has held nearly the same amount of campaign events.

According to statistics provided from McConnell's staff, the minority leader from Kentucky has attended 239 campaign events for GOP candidates and committees this cycle and has traveled to 18 states. On Wednesday, he headlined an event for Florida Republican Senate nominee Marco Rubio.

On RCP's Election 2010 page, Erin McPike previews Tuesday's Republican primary elections in Delaware and New Hampshire, Sean Trende writes about some good news for Democrats in recent polls and Scott Conroy recaps a poll showing Christine O'Donnell leading Rep. Mike Castle in the GOP Senate primary in Delaware.

On RCM, Bill Frezza writes about the "tragic" business model of monotheistic religion.

And on RCS, Jeff Neuman writes about the competitive pennant race in the National League.

Conservative activist Christine O'Donnell holds a 47 percent to 44 percent lead over establishment favorite Rep. Mike Castle in Tuesday's Delaware GOP Senate primary, according to a new Public Policy Polling (PPP) survey released on Sunday.

O'Donnell's lead among 668 likely Delaware Republican primary voters was within the poll's margin of error, but if she were able to defeat Castle on Tuesday, it would mark another extraordinary upset for a tea party-backed candidate in a GOP Senate primary.

On Thursday, O'Donnell picked up former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin's endorsement, and Palin has recorded a robocall on O'Donnell's behalf. The new PPP poll was conducted after Palin endorsed O'Donnell.

Palin's last-minute push on behalf of Fairbanks attorney Joe Miller proved critical in Miller's shocking victory over incumbent Sen. Lisa Murkowski in last month's Republican primary in Alaska.

Just 35 percent of Delaware Republicans said that they were more likely to vote for someone who had Palin's support, while 24 percent viewed Palin's endorsement as a negative factor, and 41 percent had no opinion.

But among those who saw Palin's support as a positive, O'Donnell led Castle by an enormous margin of 83 percent to 13 percent.

While Palin's endorsement of O'Connell appears to have made an impact on the race, Castle has also suffered from declining popularity among Republican voters.

In an August PPP poll, 60 percent of Republicans viewed Castle favorably and 25 percent viewed him unfavorably. But in the new poll, Castle's favorability plummeted to 43 percent, while 47 percent viewed him unfavorably.

Although O'Donnell held a three-point lead over Castle in the new poll, only 50 percent of likely primary voters said that they thought she was fit for public office.

O'Donnell's advantage over Castle seems to be based largely upon ideology, as 53 percent of voters said that her ideology was about right, while only 37 percent said that Castle, a longtime moderate congressman, was about right ideologically.

PPP said that it would release new general election polling data in Delaware later in the week. The winner of the Republican primary will face Democrat Chris Coons in November to fill Vice President Biden's old Senate seat.

In hypothetic general election polls conducted over the past month, Coons was trailing Castle but leading O'Donnell.

If O'Donnell defeats Castle on Tuesday, it could signal an opportunity for Democrats to hold onto a Senate seat that they had appeared likely to lose.

A new poll from Rasmussen Reports shows North Carolina incumbent Republican Sen. Richard Burr with his largest lead over Democratic Secretary of State Elaine Marshall since April. He leads 54 percent to 38 percent in the survey of 500 likely North Carolina voters taken Wednesday.

Despite running in a favorable year for Republicans and despite the fact that 56 percent of voters say they have a favorable view of Burr, he has struggled to shake Marshall. He only led by 5 percentage points in a PPP (D) poll released in late August and currently leads in the RCP Average by 9.5 percent.

Given his high favorability ratings, this may partly be a result of the nature of the state. Historically, North Carolina voters tend to punish incumbents. In fact, no senator has been re-elected in the state since Jesse Helms in 1996. As a result, Democrats have targeted the seat as one of their few pick-up opportunities in the Senate this November.

The poll has a margin of error of +/- 4.5 percentage points.

Senate

West Virginia - Probably the biggest news of the day yesterday was that John Raese continued to close the gap on Governor Joe Manchin. Manchin leads Raese by only a 50 percent to 45 percent margin. This is going to come down to whether Manchin's popularity (67/32 approve/disapprove) can outweigh Obama's unpopularity (36/62). Raese will argue that Manchin will be pressured into supporting the President's agenda, while he will not, and that if voters really like Manchin that much, they should keep him in West Virginia (the "best of both worlds" argument).

Illinois Senate - Rasmussen Reports checks in with the first likely voter poll to show a more than a three-point lead for either candidate since April. It finds Republican Mark Kirk leading Alexi Giannoulias 41 percent to 37 percent. This is changed from a 45-45 tie in late August. This could represent real movement, but really it represents movement within the margin of error. Oddly, for all the mud that has been slung, neither candidate is particularly unpopular. Kirk's favorable/unfavorable is 45/39, while Giannoulias' is 42/44. Kirk leads by two in the RCP Average.

Missouri - The Missouri Senate race really looks to be getting away from Robin Carnahan. The latest Rasmussen Reports poll finds Roy Blunt leading Robin Carnahan by a 10-point margin, 53 percent to 43 percent. Although this represents a slight tightening from Rasmussen's earlier polling, it also shows Blunt edging further over 50 percent.

President Obama is at 40 percent approval, suggesting that Carnahan is having difficulty expanding her appeal to voters who don't approve of the President. Making matters worse for Carnahan, Blunt has a 52 percent to 42 percent favorable/unfavorable, while Carnahan suffers from a 43 percent/54 percent split. Blunt leads by six points in the RCP Average.

Florida - The theme for the day seems to be races getting away from Democrats, though a large part of this is just polling firms finally switching over to likely voter models. Sunshine State/VSS polled 1016 likely Florida voters and found Marco Rubio receiving 43 percent of the vote, to 29 percent for Charlie Crist and 23 percent for Kendrick Meek. Interestingly, Crist's 30 percent of the vote is pretty much the same number he's been receiving for most of the campaign. Rubio and Meek have both gone up, suggesting that undecideds are choosing the lesser-known, major party-affiliated candidates, which isn't all that surprising. Rubio leads by 5.4 points in the RCP Average.

Governor

Maine - I discussed Maine's gubernatorial and House polls in detail here.

Massachusetts - The State House News and Rasmussen Reports found similar results in Massachusetts. The State House News poll of registered voters finds Democratic Governor Deval Patrick leading Republican Charlie Baker by six points, 34 percent to 28 percent. Patrick receives an assist from state Treasurer Tim Cahill, who takes 18 percent of the vote, and probably splits the anti-Patrick vote with Baker. There are a ton of undecideds out there, so Patrick isn't in the clear yet; the fact that 56 percent of voters think he's doing a poor or below average job isn't a great sign for him.

Rasmussen Reports polled likely voters, and finds a much closer race with fewer undecideds. In this iteration, Patrick receives 44 percent of the vote to Baker's 42 percent. Cahill is reduced to 8 percent of the vote here. Rasmussen Reports finds that 46 percent of the populace approve of the job he's doing, and 56 percent approve of the job the President is doing. This is the closest Rasmussen Reports has found the poll since March. Patrick leads by 5 points in the RCP Average.

Michigan - Venture capitalist Rick Snyder wasn't necessarily the logical choice for Republicans to make in this blue collar, recession-riven state. But he seems to be getting the job done against Virg Bernero. Mitchell Research finds Snyder leading Bernero 53 percent to 26 percent. No one really expects Bernero to receive 26 percent of the vote, and Democrats will almost certainly come home. But it is a huge gap for him to overcome in 60 days. Snyder leads by 20 points in the RCP Average.

House

Quinnipiac polled registered voters nationwide, and found a 5-point, 42 percent to 37 percent lead for Republicans. I'm probably going to sound like a broken record here, but the imposition of a likely voter screen over this sample in this environment would probably result in roughly a 10-point lead for Republicans. Republicans won by seven points in 1994.

And, finally, here's a rundown of campaign polls:

AZ-05 (National Research (R)) - Mitchell (D) 38 percent, Schweikert (R) 46 percent;

AZ-08 (Moore (R)) - Kirkpatrick (D) 43 percent, Gosar (R) 43 percent;

CO-04 (Bennett Petts (D)) - Markey (D) 38 percent, Gardner (R) 38 percent, Waszkiewicz (I) 5 percent, Aden (I) 2 percent.

The Chamber of Commerce has a record in elections of spending heavily on Republican candidates, but they have another kind of campaign this year that's designed to have a longer term impact on political dialogue and ingrained allegiances.

The Chamber's “Campaign for Free Enterprise” is an effort the organization is taking to the states to reshape how voters think about their issues. They're even organizing events on college campuses as students begin to plan for their entry into the workforce, and they have a partnership with Junior Achievement.

The crux of the effort is to encourage voters to ask five questions of candidates for office over the next two months, but the Chamber has no feedback mechanism or scoring system for their answers. That's largely due to the nature of the questions, which are very basic and will likely produce identical answers from both Democrats and Republicans.

One of those questions is: “Do you believe that tax increases hurt job creation?” and another is “Would you deal with the debt and deficit issues through increasing government revenue or decreasing government spending?” Some of the questions are open-ended, but they are mostly designed to generate responses that will force politicians and their voters to think more on the Chamber's turf.

At a briefing Thursday to detail the campaign, managing director Stan Anderson emphasized the bipartisan nature of the effort and noted that governors from both parties have participated in the Chamber's forums.

Maine is a quirky state. Although it typically votes Democratic for president, at the state level its politics are, well, all over the place. It has two moderate Republican senators, and the state Senate is very nearly split between the parties; as late as 2004 both chambers had Democratic edges of only a few seats. Democrats have a relatively narrow six-point registration advantage over Republicans, but the dominant political affiliation is Independent. In fact, voting for Independent candidates for governor is so common that no major party candidate has won a majority of the vote since 1982 (the state actually elected an Independent governor in 1994 and 1998).

So it isn't totally shocking to see horrendous numbers for Maine Democrats in PPP's latest round of polling. In the governor's race, Republican tea party candidate Paul LePage leads Democrat Libby Mitchell 43 percent to 29 percent, with Independent Eliot Cutler coming in at 11 percent. What makes this somewhat surprising is that LePage is an across-the-board conservative, on both social and fiscal issues. DGA spending might be able to turn this race around, but it will be tougher than you might expect in a state where the president's approval rating is 44 percent approve/51 percent disapprove (and where outgoing Democratic Governor John Baldacci is at 31/57).

With these numbers, it isn't all that surprising that the Democratic representatives in the 1st and 2nd Districts are also showing signs of weakness. The 1st District is the southern portion of the state. It's the more urban of the two districts (50 percent) and it gave President Obama 61 percent of the vote in 2008. But Representative Chellie Pingree only managed 55 percent of the vote in her inaugural run in 2008, despite outspending her opponent by roughly 4:1. PPP finds her with a favorable rating that barely outweighs her unfavorable rating. She leads her opponent, businessman Dean Scontras, 47 percent to 38 percent. Scontras raised a decent amount of cash, especially for this relatively inexpensive district. It's disconcerting for Pingree to be below 50 percent, and she is in at least some jeopardy.

The 2nd District is another story. It is the sprawling Northern Tier of the state. As the Almanac of American Politics reminds us, it is the largest district east of the Mississippi River, and is overwhelmingly rural. It is an economically troubled region of the country, and is populist in nature. George W. Bush came within shooting distance of its electoral votes both times he ran for President, and H. Ross Perot almost ran ahead of Bill Clinton here in 1992.

Michael Michaud is a socially moderate, fiscally liberal member, who has supported most of the President's agenda in what is essentially a swing district. It isn't really that surprising to see him leading his opponent by only a 45 percent to 38 percent margin, with the greatest number of undecided voters being Republican. Only 39 percent of the district's voters approve of the job he's doing, while 41 percent disapprove. His Republican opponent, Jason Levesque, has raised a quarter of a million dollars, which goes a long way in Bangor. We'll be keeping a close eye on this one.