North Carolina's Wilmington-based 7th District is less Republican than its R+5 PVI implies. True, at the presidential levels it prefers Republicans -- it gave John McCain 52 percent of the vote and George W. Bush 56 percent of the vote in 2004.

But, like most eastern Carolina districts, it will still prefer a conservative, non-national party Democrat to a Republican. In 2008, it gave Elizabeth Dole only 45 percent of the vote in her re-election bid, and gave the Republican gubernatorial candidate only 44 percent of the vote.

This has been the tightrope Democratic Congressman Mike McIntyre has had to walk. He's managed to get re-elected with more than 65 percent of the vote since his first bid in 1996. And he's done so by compiling a relatively conservative voting record. He's consistently rated at the center of the House Democratic caucus, and he even receives the endorsement of the religious conservative organization Focus on the Family.

But Republicans believe that his 2009 votes for Nancy Pelosi for speaker and the stimulus bill, combined with the national budget, make him more vulnerable this year than he has been in the past.

A new poll of the 7th from SurveyUSA seems to confirm this suspicion. The poll of 450 registered voters finds that Ilario Pantano leads McIntyre by a point, 46 percent to 45 percent. Among those who state that they are absolutely certain to vote, Pantano leads by a 57 percent to 38 percent margin. Pantano trails only in New Hanover (Wilmington), Robeson and Pender Counties; Robeson County, where Pantano trails 13-71 is a 30 percent white county with a substantial Native American population.

At any rate, this is what that enthusiasm gap commentators are talking about is all about. If the Democrats can't convince marginal voters (people who rate themselves as a 5-9 on the likelihood to vote scale) to turn out, then this race will be a Republican blowout. If they can convince them to turn out, it will be close and hard fought. That is what this election comes down to with a little more than 30 days to go.

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