This post resumes a series we were running in the spring. We'll keep a running commentary on the most recent polls, digging down into their internals, keeping an eye on the big picture, and helping to sort out what these polls are really telling us about November.

Senate

Ohio - The big news over the weekend was the Columbus Dispatch poll showing Republicans overwhelmingly ahead in Ohio. The Columbus Dispatch poll is a mail-in poll and therefore something of a S.L.O.P., but it usually manages to get pretty close to the right number. This is a poll of registered voters, but the enthusiasm gap, which would normally cause Republicans to respond in greater numbers than Democrats, probably offsets this. There are slightly more Republicans than Democrats, which sounds about right for a year like this.

Republican Rob Portman leads Democrat Lee Fisher 50 percent to 37 percent. Among those with no party affiliation, Portman leads 52 percent to 23 percent. He's even winning 25 percent of those voters who voted for Ted Strickland in his landslide win over Kenneth Blackwell in 2006. He's carrying all regions of the state, including the heavily Democratic northwest (Cleveland, Youngstown, Akron).

Portman leads by 8.3 points in the RCP Average. Fisher needs to change the dynamics of this race quickly, as it is really starting to get away from him.

Kentucky - SurveyUSA shows Republican Rand Paul leading Attorney General Jack Conway 55 percent to 40 percent - an ever-increasing lead in SurveyUSA's polls. What's interesting here is that Conway's numbers are stable, coming in at around 40 percent in almost every poll taken this cycle. Paul's numbers jump around depending on the pollster, which typically suggests that undecideds are leaning his way.

Idaho - There's not a whole lot of suspense here, but Republican Senator Mike Crapo leads financial consultant Tom Sullivan 63 percent to 24 percent, according to Rasmussen Reports. Crapo's numbers have fallen off a bit from previous polling, but this can't really be called a tightening race in any meaningful sense of the word at this point.

Governor

Ohio - The second half of the Columbus Dispatch poll tested Democratic Governor Ted Strickland against former Congressman John Kasich. It finds Kasich leading 49 percent to 37 percent. The numbers mirror the Senate race numbers, with Strickland only receiving the votes of 2/3 of those who voted for him in 2006.

The rest of the Democratic ticket is in similar danger of being dragged under, with Republicans leading most of the statewide offices, although some of the leads are slim. This has important consequences for the 2010 redistricting, when Ohio will probably lose two House seats. Of course with numbers like these, the Democratic numbers in the Ohio delegation will probably be severely reduced; six of the states ten Democrats are in territory that is marginally Democratic or worse.

Kasich leads Strickland 49.8 percent to 39 percent in the RCP Average. It would be a comeback rivaling Lazarus if Strickland were to win.

Nebraska - Barring some type of massive scandal, Republican Dave Heineman will still be governor of Nebraska in 2011. He leads Mike Meister 61 percent to 28 percent, according to Rasmussen Reports.

This 33 point lead is down from a 55 point lead from July, but Meister was pretty much guaranteed to get most of the 33 percent who approve of the job the President is doing.

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