There are a number of Senate races where the GOP likely hurt its chances by nominating controversial candidates. The Nevada and Kentucky Senate races are the most obvious, and some would lump Connecticut and Colorado in there as well.

For a while, it looked as if Missouri belonged in that category. After all, Republican nominee Roy Blunt has been in Washington D.C. for decades, and, in 2008, his son Matt retired rather than run for re-election as Missouri's governor. The early polling showed Blunt in a tight race with Secretary of State Robin Carnahan, and typically showed a narrow Carnahan lead, driven by over $2 million in outside expenditures on her behalf.

But the race has begun to turn toward Blunt in recent months. As we entered the new year, Rasmussen Reports began to show a mid-single digit Blunt lead. The August PPP (D) poll showed Blunt leading by seven. Today, Rasmussen Reports shows Blunt up by 13 points, leading 54 percent to 41 percent.

Interestingly, Carnahan's numbers have been very stable since November of last year, when PPP showed her ahead 43 percent to 42 percent. In the 15 samples drawn since then, she has been at 41, 42, or 43 percent in 11 of them. Most of the variance has been in Blunt's numbers. When we see this pattern, it typically indicates that undecideds are leaning toward the candidate with the greater variance. In other words, these polls are beginning to point toward a very comfortable Blunt win. Blunt leads by 8.7 points in the RCP Average.

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