The latest Mason-Dixon poll for the Orlando Sentinel confirms a bit of conventional wisdom floating around out there about the race. If financier and Mike Tyson/Heidi Fleiss friend Jeff Greene is the Democratic nominee for Senate, Republican-turned-Independent Charlie Crist leads Republican Marco Rubio 39 percent to 38 percent, with 12 percent for Greene.

But if Congressman Kendrick Meek - who has never run a competitive election in his life - holds on, the Democrats' share of the vote improves to 18 percent of the vote, coming almost exclusively from Crist's vote share. In this instance, Rubio leads Crist 38 percent to 33 percent.

This probably indicates that the African American vote is in play for Crist if Meek - who is himself African American - is not the nominee. The same pollster found that Crist's job approval rating has sunk to 44 percent, the worst rating for any Florida Governor in 16 years. If the trend continues - or if Republicans abandon him in droves as he edges closer to the Democratic Party - it may not matter who wins the primary.

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