Former Manchester, New Hampshire, Mayor Frank Guinta has been accused of “granstanding” of late, but maybe “kegstanding” or at least “flip-flopping” might be more to the point.

Guinta is one of several candidates running in the Republican primary to take on Rep. Carol Shea-Porter in New Hampshire's 1st. He is running as a rock-ribbed conservative candidate, but his actual record complicates the picture. As the Huffington Post reported:

Frank Guinta has made opposition to the stimulus a central plank in his run to unseat endangered incumbent Democratic Rep. Carol Shea-Porter. On his own website, Guinta has insisted that the package has "yet to bring us jobs." In attacking Shea-Porter, he's called it a "disaster" that was rushed through Congress "without planning or proper forethought."

But now, new evidence has emerged showing Guinta occupying a slightly different political role than that of an anti-stimulus crusader. Emails released last week by the New Hampshire Attorney General's office show that the sitting AG (and current Republican Senate candidate) Kelly Ayotte, mocked Guinta for his complaints that the state wasn't getting its stimulus funds fast enough.

But wait, there's more! Candidate Guinta is also making a big deal out of his opposition to cap-and-trade and the like. As for Mayor Guinta, well, scroll down this list. He signed onto the U.S. Mayors Climate Protection Agreement (pdf), which endorsed the Kyoto protocol emissions targets.

Guinta also signed on (pdf) to the Sierra Club's Cool Cities Agreement. That's sure to play well in a Republican primary in New Hampshire.

Democrats won't take much comfort in the latest data from the Gallup Economic Confidence Index. The polling firm found that "immediately following the sharp drop in the U.S. stock market that occurred on June 29," American confidence in the economy took a nosedive.  In fact, we are on track to register the largest single one-month drop since Black October 2008, which arguably cost Senator John McCain the election. The only silver lining that the ruling party can look to here is that it's still a few months until November.

Sen. Russ Feingold was the lone "No" Democratic vote on Wall Street reform, which passed the Senate today after barely overcoming a Republican filibuster. However, Feingold is not alone on another front -- he's among several Democratic incumbents in serious electoral trouble.

A new Rasmussen poll (July 13, 500 LV, MoE +/- 4%) finds the three-term incumbent trailing Republican Ron Johnson by 1 point, a statistical tie that amplifies Feingold's difficulties heading into November. Feingold has taken just 46% in the last three months of polling, while Johnson has slowly crept up from 44% in May to 45% in June, and now 47% in July.

He continues to lead Republican Dave Westlake by double digits.

Johnson 47 - Feingold 46 - Und 6

Westlake 37 - Feingold 51 - Und 6

RCP rates this race a Toss Up.

Maybe now Dino Rossi can afford some yard signs. Evergreen State Republican Senatorial hopeful Rossi this week announced that his campaign has raised $1.4 million in about a month to take on Senator Patty Murray. That's serious money for such a short period of time.

Even if a good chunk of these funds are low hanging fruit, it looks like Rossi wasn't joking when he told RCP he would be "competitive with Patty Murray" on the money front. Murray has nearly $7 million in funds, which recently earned her this raspberry of a story from the Seattle Times. The Times reporters revealed:

Among the top six Democrats in the Senate leadership, only Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid has collected more money than Murray from lobbyists and their firms since 2005, according to the Center for Responsive Politics, a Washington, D.C., nonprofit that tracks money and politics. Yet even Reid receives a smaller share of his overall donations from lobbyists than Murray does.

Rossi's campaign is by no means the only concern that will be spending money against Murray. Now that the Supreme Court has cleared away the legal basis to challenge most expenditures near an election, just about anybody can play.

Something called the American Action Network fired the first shot across the senator's bow this week with a four-day-long $750,000 media blitz called "Make Murray Worry." Judging by the Murray campaign's angry reaction to the ads, she is.

Texas Gov. Rick Perry holds a 9-point lead over former Houston Mayor Bill White in his race for a third full term in office, a new Rasmussen poll finds (July 13, 500 LV, MoE +/- 4.5%). This result shows no statistical movement since last month, though Perry did return to the 50% mark after dropping just below in June.

Perry 50 (+2 vs. last poll, June 16)
White 41 (+1)
Und 7

RCP currently rates this race Leans Republican.

On RCP, Sen. Tom Coburn (R-Okla.) argues that the financial reform bill is ineffective and will create uncertainty for business.

On RCM, Diana Furchtgott-Roth discusses the White House's push to apply Title IX to college courses in science, technology, engineering and mathematics. Also on RCM, John Tamny reviews Sebastian Mallaby's "More Money Than God."

On RCS, Jeff Neuman reminisces about his experiences playing the Old Course at St. Andrews, the site of this year's British Open.

In the race for governor of Connecticut, Democrats Dan Malloy and Ned Lamont hold large leads against three Republican candidates, including a double-digit lead over GOP favorite Tom Foley, a new Quinnipiac poll finds (July 7-13, 1367 RV, MoE +/- 2.7%). No Democrat has held this office in 20 years.

"The Democratic candidates benefit from the state's Democratic registration advantage and they are better known than the Republican contenders,” said Quinnipiac poll director Douglas Schwartz. "Democrats also could be helped by the divisiveness of the Republican primary battle, which seems nastier than the Democratic campaign, an unusual twist."

Foley, a former ambassador, wins nearly 50% in the three-way Republican primary against Lt. Gov. Mike Fidele and businessman Oz Griebel. Foley leads with 48% to 13% for Fidele and 7% for Griebel, with 32% undecided.

In the Democratic primary, likely voters favor Lamont, who won the 2006 Democratic Senate nomination, by a 46%-37% margin over Malloy, mayor of Stamford. 16 percent remain undecided. Only half of voters say their mind is made up, though Lamont has led in every Q poll conducted during the primary campaign.

General Election
Lamont 45
Foley 33
Und 17

Malloy 44
Foley 33
Und 19

Lamont and Malloy both lead Fidele and Griebel by more than 20 points.

You can almost hear the gritted, clenched teeth through which this statement on Levi Johnston and Bristol Palin's engagement was dictated:

Bristol at 19 is now a young adult. As parents, we obviously want what is best for our children, but Bristol is ultimately in charge of determining what is best for her and her beautiful son. Bristol believes in redemption and forgiveness to a degree most of us struggle to put in practice in our daily lives.

We pray that, as a couple, Bristol and Levi's relationship matures into one that will allow Tripp to grow up graced with two loving parents in his life.

The latest Quinnipiac poll from Pennsylvania (7/6-7/11, 1367 RVs, MOE +/- 2.7%), has Democrat Joe Sestak moving into a tie with Pat Toomey.  This represents an improvement for Sestak in Quinnipiac's polling; he trailed by two in May, and by eight in April.  One interesting facet of Toomey's poll numbers is their stability.  They've been within a couple points of his current 43% average since January (except from a couple of pollsters who show an unusually high number of undecideds).  Whether this represents a ceiling for Toomey -- this could be the case if Toomey has firmed up his Republican and Republican-leaning -Independent base but has difficulty with the rest -- remains to be seen.  Toomey leads by two in the RCP Average, 43%-41%.

One difficulty Sestak may encounter is the President's unpopularity:  He's 46%-49% approve/disapprove among registered voters.  48% believe the President does not deserve re-election, and he loses to a generic Republican 41%-40%.  These are difficult fundamentals for Sestak to rise above, without even getting to the fact that he pushed himself pretty far to the left to win the Democratic primary, which may neutralize Toomey's conservatism.

Not Sarah, Bristol. We give teenagers a lot of leeway for making stupid decisions (having been dumb teenagers ourselves, once upon a time), but what nineteen year old thinks it's a good idea to tell their mother they are getting married by announcing it via the cover story of a tabloid magazine? That is astonishingly bad judgment even by the most lenient standards of teenage stupidity, not to mention a signature exhibition of disrespect toward her parents.