Yet another poll shows former Georgia Secretary of State Karen Handel increasing her lead in tomorrow's Republican primary for governor. The new Magellan Strategies (R) survey (July 18, 1181 LV) comes one week after Sarah Palin announced her support for Handel.

Handel 38 (+6 vs. last poll, July 8 )
Deal 20 (+2)
Oxendine 12 (-6)
Johnson 17 (+5)

Absent a surge in support by tomorrow, Handel will likely need a runoff to win the nomination, as she remains well below the 50 percent needed. Nathan Deal, who resigned his seat earlier this year to focus on a run for governor, is currently in second and, if polling holds, would face Handel in the Aug. 10 runoff.

Since tying for the lead in a poll conducted Tuesday, the day after Palin's endorsement, Handel has led in the last three polls. State Insurance Commissioner John Oxendine had been considered the frontrunner until last week, after leading all but two polls since February.

It appears Handel picked up much of her increase in support from Oxendine voters, who switched over following Palin's endorsement. Palin has put her touch on other races around the country as well, including the neighboring South Carolina GOP gubernatorial primary, which Nikki Haley won after a runoff.

The eventual Republican nominee will likely take on former Gov. Roy Barnes. RCP rates the general election race Leans Republican.

A new Rasmussen poll finds Republican Pat Toomey up 7 points in the race for Pennsylvania's open Senate seat. Leading Democrat Joe Sestak 45%-38%, little has changed since last month when Toomey led by 6 points.

With less than four months to go, 12% of voters remain undecided. The survey of 750 likely voters was conducted July 14 with a margin of error of +/- 4%.

Toomey, a former congressman from Allentown, and Sestak, a current Congressman from Philly's southwestern suburbs, are evenly well-known among the state's voters. Just 15% are unsure how they feel about each candidate. Both also have favorable ratings 50% or above, with Toomey holding a 6-point lead in that category.

Toomey also has a lead in fundraising after a strong second quarter. He brought in $3.1 million from April through June, leaving him with $4.65 million to spend. Sestak had a successful fundraising quarter as well, raising nearly $2 million -- $1.6 million of which was brought in after the May 18 primary, in which he knocked off the party-switching incumbent, Arlen Specter.

While Rasmussen continues to find Toomey with leads just outside the margin of error, Quinnipiac's last two surveys have shown the race to be even closer. A poll released last week had the race tied, and its May survey, released just before the primaries, found Toomey up 2 points.

RCP currently rates this race a Toss Up.

The e-mail from Mike Biundo reminded me of his bit part in Michael Lewis's Trail Fever, Lewis's book-length account of the 1996 presidential election season that grew out of his coverage for The New Republic. Here's the relevant story, from Lewis's New Hampshire dispatches:

[Pat] Buchanan's press director, Mike Biundo, jokingly asks [Alan] Keyes what it would take for him to quit the race and endorse Pat. Keyes flips out, yelling and screaming and accusing Buchanan of racism. A week or so ago Buchanan included in one of his speeches a story from the Nixon years about John Dean, John Mitchell, and the Hopi Indians. (The gist of it was that Dean plea-bargained with the court to stay out of jail with charitable work for the Hopi Indians. After Dean cut his deal Mitchell's lawyer followed. But before he spoke to the judge, Mitchell leaned over to him and whispered in a voice loud enough that the whole courtroom heard, "If they offer you the Indians, turn them down.")

"Why is this funny?" screams Keyes at Biundo, so loudly that all of a sudden our table is the focus of attention for half the ballroom. "Will someone please explain to me why this is funny?"

Certainly, the way Keyes tells the story, it isn't funny at all, but who knows? With a little less indignation and a little more wallop in the punch line, it could work. You can't help but pity poor Biundo. He is sitting there with a kind of nervous nausea on his face, staring up at a black man raving on like a lunatic about the importance of Indians to the Republican Party. If you saw this scene unfold on the street you would cross over to avoid the man who is shouting and wonder why they ever let those people out of the mental institutions in the first place. But here it is a major media event, the temporary centerpiece of the Republican primary. Reporters with notepads and bearded guys with TV cameras come racing to capture the moment. The New Hampshire primary is passing before Mike Biundo's eyes. You could see him thinking: I'm going to be remembered as the guy who hates Indians.

How I wish somebody would put Lewis on the campaign trail this year to cover the midterms.

On RCP, Sean Trende writes that the Democrats could face historic losses in governor races this November. Also, Kyle Trygstad reports on the fundraising luncheon in Philadelphia today for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and Bryan Lentz, who's running for the House seat in the 7th district. Vice President Joe Biden and Speaker Nancy Pelosi will headline the event.

On RCW, Todd Crowell writes about Yasith Chhun, an American citizen who led a failed coup attempt against the Cambodian government and now faces life in prison for violating the Neutrality Act.

Writing on Forbes.com, RCM Editor John Tamny argues that despite President Bush and President Obama's poor economic policies, the United States is not doomed.

Finally, on RCS, Jeff Neuman writes about Louis Oosthuizen's impressive seven-shot win at the British Open.

New Hampshire congressional district 1 hopeful Frank Guinta's spokesmen really ought to watch what they say. On Thursday, I put a post up charging the former Manchester mayor with “flip-flopping” on global warming legislation and gave readers links to back up the accusation.

Guinta had signed onto the U.S. Mayors Climate Protection Agreement, which endorsed the Kyoto protocol emissions targets. He had also signed on to the Sierra Club's Cool Cities Agreement. Now, he is running hard against cap-and-trade legislation.

Within hours of posting that, Guinta campaign consultant and old New Hampshire political hand Mike Biundo wrote to me alleging that the post was “wrong.” He explained, “We never signed on to either the initiatives you mentioned in your article. The Board of Alderman voted for these initiatives but as the chief executive Frank had to sign it. He was not for either proposal.”

That was a stretch, but it least it was plausible that Guinta would sign onto both initiatives unenthusiastically to placate the aldermen. I would have let the matter drop. But the the Nashua Telegraph reported Sunday that Guinta spokesman Sean Thomas was denying that Guinta signed the Mayors agreement at all: “As for the Conference of Mayors, Thomas said the group probably got support from predecessor Mayor Robert Baines, a Democrat, and substitute[d] Guinta's name after the fact.”

Wrong! We know this is wrong because Guinta signed the agreement during an energy summit in Manchester that he convened. According to this story in the newspaper The Hippo, from June 14, 2007, “community leaders signed the U.S. Mayors' Climate Protection Agreement during an energy summit hosted by the Sierra Club last week in Manchester. Joining Manchester Mayor Frank Guinta in that commitment were mayors Bernard Streeter of Nashua” and a bunch of other mayors and officials.

Thomas did admit that Guinta signed the Sierra Club agreement in December 2006 but argued that Guinta's hands were tied and that he was never really in favor of it. He told the Telegraph that “the Manchester Board of Aldermen initiated the Sierra Club arrangement and the mayor signed on as the city's chief executive.”

To which one can only reply, Oh really? Then why did Guinta say (pdf) to local members of the Sierra Club, “As you know I think at the last Aldermanic meeting the Board of Alderman unanimously supported this agreement so we are going to [mark it] with a signing. So, we're very pleased to do this and be an energy friendly and environmentally friendly city.”

And if he was just blowing smoke at that meeting then why did he convene the above-mentioned green summit with the same Sierra Club half-a-year later, where he signed the Mayors agreement?

Of the 50 states and nation's capital, the two locales with the smallest populations are polar opposites when it comes to judging the job President Obama has done in office over the first half of 2010. At 85 percent, Washington, D.C., is the most approving of Obama's job performance, while at 29% Wyoming is easily the lowest, according to a new report from Gallup.

Not surprisingly, the two states (neither of which has changed its presidential vote since 1968) also were at opposite ends in the 2008 presidential election. With 92% of the vote, D.C. was Obama's top-performing state; at 33%, Wyoming was his worst and 1 point lower than in Utah.

Following D.C., Hawaii (68%), Delaware (62%) and Maryland (60%) finish in the top four of most-approving states, followed by New York and Connecticut at 57% apiece, and California, Rhode Island and Massachusetts all at 56%. Obama's home state of Illinois gives him a 54% approval rating, the 10th highest.

The states with the lowest approval rating for Obama are equally as unsurprising: Utah, West Virginia and Idaho (all 34%); Oklahoma (37%); Alaska and Montana (38%); Arkansas and Kentucky (40%).

The results, based on interviews with 90,000 adults over the first six months of the year, showed little change from 2009. As Gallup reports, "Obama's greatest support is concentrated in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic," while "Many of his lower approval ratings come from Mountain West and Southern states."

His approval rating in battleground states could play a significant role in the 2010 midterm elections, as Democratic candidates around the country weigh how closely they want to be tied to the president's agenda, as well as the positives and negatives of having the him in town to campaign for them.

After averaging a 57% approval rating in Gallup's 2009 polling, Obama's average rating for the first six months of 2010 is down to 49%. He currently has a 47.6% RCP Average approval rating, 1 point higher than his disapproval rating.

Delaware Republican Mike Castle has dropped below 50% support for the first time in Rasmussen's polling of the Senate race. The new survey (July 14, 500 LV, MoE +/- 4.5%), released today, found Castle leading Democrat Chris Coons by 11 points in the race for Vice President Biden's former Senate seat.

Castle 47
Coons 36
Und 11

Castle's lead decreased since April by more than half, as his support dipped 8 points while Coons notched up 4 points. The new poll indicates the race may end closer than many expected, with Castle considered the heavy favorite since Attorney General Beau Biden (D) opted against running.

New fundraising reports due yesterday showed Castle holding a large cash-on-hand advantage ($2.6 million to $950,000), though Castle outraised Coons by just $140,000 in the second quarter.

RCP rates this race Likely Republican.

On RCP, Larry Kudlow argues that the Obama administration needs to start heeding the advice of business leaders.

On RCS, Art Spander writes that John Daly and Tiger Woods are right at home at St. Andrews.

Finally, check out RCP for new 2010 polls from California, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, Wisconsin and more.

Democrat Richard Blumenthal continues to hold a strong lead over Republican Linda McMahon in the Connecticut Senate race, a new Quinnipiac poll finds (July 7-13, 1367 RV, MoE +/- 2.7%).

Blumenthal 54 (-1 vs. last poll, June 8 )
McMahon 37 (+2)
Und 7

"Connecticut voters still trust Attorney General Richard Blumenthal despite the Vietnam controversy," said Quinnipiac polling director Douglas Schwartz. "Ms. McMahon, however, has the momentum, even if the latest movement is only a small three-point change. ... She still has a long way to go, but she has a lot of time and a lot of money."

McMahon has dumped more than $21 million of her own money into the race and reported having $3.2 million in the bank. Blumenthal raised $1.6 million in the second quarter and now has $2.1 million in the bank.

McMahon is heavily favored to win the primary, leading former Rep. Rob Simmons, who suspended his campaign earlier this year, and Peter Schiff by taking 52% in the GOP primary. Simmons takes 25% and Schiff 13%.

RCP rates this race Likely Democrat.

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (July 12-14, 625 LV, MoE +/- 4%) has taken a significant lead of Sharron Angle for the first time this year in Mason-Dixon polling, reports the Las Vegas Review-Journal, which sponsored the poll.

Reid 44 (+3 vs. last poll, June 3)
Angle 37 (-7)
None 5
Und 10

Reid has opened up a 7-point lead -- while it's his most promising poll yet, he's still well under 50% and pollster Brad Coker tells the paper the race is still anyone's to win. Reid's lead is no doubt in part thanks to his aggressive media campaign, using TV and radio ads to portray Angle as an extreme, right-wing candidate.

"I wouldn't write her obituary just yet," Coker said. "Three and a half months is a lifetime, and at some point she's going to be able to start fighting back."

The LVRJ also reports Angle is coming off a strong fundraising quarter, nearly matching Reid's three-month haul. Angle reported raising $2.3 million to Reid's $2.4 million from April through June, though Reid still holds a significant cash-on-hand advantage ($9 million to $1.8 million).

RCP rates this race a Toss Up.