One of the most frustrating aspects of this battle for Congress, especially compared with the 2006 variant, is the dearth of non-campaign polling.  So analysts are left going off of hunches on who is vulnerable, or trying to infer things from PVI, fundraising, and voting records.

The party committees, on the other hand, poll constantly.  Thus, you can get a good idea for what is going on by watching what they're actually doing?

So what is the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee doing these days?  It is securing $28 million dollars worth of advertisements in Democratic districts.  There are some "usual suspects" in there -- everyone knew Bobby Bright was vulnerable.  But there are veterans on the list that people had only theorized were vulnerable, such as John Spratt, Allen Boyd and Ike Skelton.  There are also some surprising second-tier or even third-tier races on the list, like Betty Sutton, Ciro Rodriguez, and Gerry Connolly.  All of this paints a picture of a Democratic majority in danger -- but perhaps as imporant, one that knows that it is in danger and is fighting back early.

Nevada Republican Sharron Angle has released a new 30-second TV ad that aims to put the spotlight back on Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, whose Senate campaign has focused its efforts on defining Angle as too extreme.

"Harry Reid says he does more for Nevada," Angle says, before noting Nevada's 14 percent unemployment rate and that it has the highest rates of foreclosures and bankruptcy. "Harry Reid has done more, and it's time for us to say, 'Stop doing it, we can't stand any more.'"

As the party's leader in the upper chamber, Reid is at the top of Republicans' target list of Democratic incumbents. Angle, who won a competitive primary, has led Reid in all but a handful of polls since December, but the last two public polls show Reid's heavy media buys may be paying off.

A recent Mason-Dixon survey found Reid up 7 points, and he now leads by 2 points in the RCP Average. Still, Reid has yet to hit the 50 percent mark in any polling this cycle, and any incumbent -- especially one running for a fifth term -- polling below that should be considered vulnerable.

Much to the Reid campaign's delight, Angle has provided some off-message distractions of her own. Before this ad was released, the latest picture of Angle was her quickly leaving her own press conference without answering any questions, even as the press followed Angle to her car. It played neatly into Democrats' argument that Angle isn't fit for the Senate.

After a robust second quarter of fundraising, however, Angle will likely be able to launch more tone-setting ads like this one for the general election.

A House ethics investigative subcommittee has charged Rep. Charles Rangel (D-N.Y.) with ethics violations, and a separate group of members on the Committee on Standards of Official Conduct will meet to judge the evidence.

The members of the adjudicatory panel, who by rule cannot have served on the investigative subcommittee, will "determine whether any counts in the Statement of Alleged Violation have been proved by clear and convincing evidence and to make findings of the fact," the committee announced this afternoon.

There will be an equal number of Democrats and Republicans on the panel.

Rangel stepped down in March as chairman of the tax-writing Ways and Means Committee, shortly after the ethics committee admonished him for accepting free travel to the Caribbean. He was also under investigation by the committee for failing to disclose accurate financial information and other related matters.

The AP, reporting this afternoon, cited sources claiming that the "committee and Rangel's attorney attempted unsuccessfully to negotiate a settlement to end the case," which "would have required Rangel to agree that he violated ethics rules."

"It appears that Charlie Rangel will finally be judged by a jury of his peers," said Ken Spain, spokesman at the National Republican Congressional Committee, "but unfortunately for the Speaker, the verdict is already out on what she promised would be the 'most ethical congress in history.'"

A Democratic source told RCP that Republicans should hold off on using the issue as an attack line.

"If Washington Republicans want to have a debate on ethics, bring it on. Thanks to Jack Abramoff, there's a long line of Washington Republicans that are already in or soon will be in orange jump suits," the source said.

Charles Murray offers a fascinating take on why Tiger Woods' "freakish" psychological strength will never be the same.

Here's Bob Shrum, God bless him, proving once again why his keen political insight and masterful speech writing skills have been responsible for sending eight Democratic presidential candidates down to defeat:

The moral bankruptcy of the Republican Party, which returned to power 40 years ago with a vengeance called the “Southern strategy,” has been extended and deepened. Then, the source of grievance was an African-American seated at the lunch counter. Now it is an African-American seated in the Oval Office.

Sounds like Mr. Shrum might be a member of a certain left-leaning email listserv...

The Senate battle in Florida may be the most difficult race to prognosticate, as Republican Marco Rubio and independent Charlie Crist remain ahead of the pack and it's still unclear who will be the Democratic nominee.

A new Rasmussen poll released this afternoon finds little has changed over the last month. Rubio holds a slight lead with 35%, followed by Crist with 33% and Democrat Kendrick Meek with 20%. If Jeff Greene were to be the Democratic nominee, the breakdown would be Rubio 36%, Crist 34%, Greene 19%.

Crist now leads by 3.6 points in the RCP Average with Meek as the nominee, and by 5.3 points in the RCP Average with Greene in the race.

Rubio is hoping to build some momentum on the questions about conversations between Crist and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid. At this point, Crist is taking nearly a quarter of the GOP vote along with independents and Democrats. So whether Crist plans to caucus with the Democrats or Republicans should he enter the Senate could be a game-changer in the race.

Of course, Crist is not likely to announce those plans before the election. And Reid has said he firmly backs Meek, a congressman from Miami, who's facing a far more difficult primary challenge than many expected.

Another new poll released today from the Democratic firm Public Policy Polling finds Meek leading Greene in the primary by just 3 points (28% to 25%) with 37% undecided.

The Competitive Enterprise Institute* has just issued its regular report (pdf, but here's a non-pdf summary) on The Nation's Worst Attorneys General, and it could be at least a minor political football because of the identity of the "winners."

AGs are designated as the "worst" based on four criteria: 1) ethical breaches and selective application of the law; 2) fabricating law; 3) usurping legislative powers; and 4) predatory practices. The top three "worst" attorneys general, in order, also happen to be running for higher office from their respective states: California's Jerry Brown, Connecticut's Richard Blumenthal, and  Oklahoma's Drew Edmondson.

The ranking of those three AGs on the list comes down to basically a judgment call. Report author Hans Bader awarded AGs grades based on how well they did on his four criteria. Brown, Blumenthal, and Edmondson all got straight Fs.

*Full disclosure: I used to work at CEI, though not in the legal department.

On RCP, Kyle Trygstad delivers an update on the West Virginia special election for Robert Byrd's Senate seat.

On RCW, Jaime Daremblum writes that while many Latin American economies are on the right path, there is still work to be done.

RCM Editor John Tamny, writing on Forbes.com, argues that unstable currencies destroy trust across the world. On RCM, Diana Furchtgott-Roth writes that despite passing an extension of unemployment benefits, Democrats have done nothing to make American workers better off in the long-term. Nick Schulz takes issue with investor Jeremy Grantham's recent letter on global warming.

Finally, on RCS, Jeff Neuman argues that 1968, not 2010, was the "Year of the Pitcher."

"I'm Rob Simmons, I'm still on the ballot, and I approved this message."

That's a quote from an ad the former congressman is getting set to air in Connecticut, less than three weeks before the Republican Senate primary and two months after he suspended his campaign. With a severe monetary disadvantage to Linda McMahon, Simmons dismissed his staff and suspended his campaign May 25 -- just days after the state party endorsed McMahon -- though his name remained on the Aug. 10 primary ballot and Simmons declined to endorse McMahon.

The Simmons campaign spent months before the May convention knocking McMahon's record as chief executive of World Wrestling Entertainment, so his lack of endorsement was no surprise. But after two months of campaign dormancy, Simmons is turning some heads as he simply "reminds voters about my placement on the Republican Primary ballot," as he wrote in an e-mail to supporters.

The McMahon campaign accused Simmons of, once again, going back on his word not to continue his campaign if he lost the state party's endorsement.

"Rob Simmons has said many times he's a man of his word, and we take him at his word. Should he decide to officially un-curtail his campaign, we're prepared for that, as we have been since September 2009," said McMahon spokesman Ed Patru. “Until that happens, following Rob Simmons' on-again, off-again campaign is a little like trying to keep up with an Abbott and Costello routine… Who's on first?”

Because he remains on the ballot, Quinnipiac University has continued to include Simmons in its polls. Its latest poll, released Friday, found McMahon taking 52 percent and Simmons 25 percent. Only a plurality is needed to win the nomination.

The winner will likely take on Attorney General Richard Blumenthal, who led McMahon by 17 points in Friday's poll and Simmons by 20 points.

We've moved the Arkansas Governor's race to Likely Democrat from Safe Democrat.  The two likely voter polls that have come out over the last couple of weeks have shown Governor Beebe hovering around 50%, which is probably consistent in this environment with the registered voter poll showing him at 57.  The RCP Average has him at 52.3%.  Beebe is still strongly favored to former state Senator Jim Keet, but there's some signs of a path to victory for Keet now.