On RCP's Election 2010 page, Kyle Trygstad writes about a new Gallup poll that reveals that the number of Americans identifying themselves as Democrats has declined over the past two years.

RCM Editor John Tamny, writing on Forbes.com, argues that the emergence of non-traditional lenders such as Sam's Club proves that the bank bailouts were unnecessary. Bill Frezza writes that the American experiment is "tottering on the brink." Alfred Tella writes about the difference between "payroll" and "household" employment data.

Finally, on RCS, Jeff Neuman argues that baseball should let steroid-era players into the Hall of Fame.

A new poll finds Arizona Sen. John McCain way out in front of his primary challenger in his bid for re-election. Rasmussen finds the former presidential nominee up 20 points over former Rep. J.D. Hayworth -- proof that McCain has ably handled what appeared to be a serious challenge to his candidacy.

McCain leads with 54% to 34% for Hayworth and 6% undecided. McCain enjoys a 62% favorable rating among Republicans, while 41% view Hayworth favorably.

With three straight polls showing McCain up more than 20 points, he now leads in the RCP Average by 29.4 points.

Rasmussen polling had the race down to 7 points in March and 5 points in April, but since then the polling firm (and all other pollsters) have shown the race to be a double-digit lead for McCain. The senator is also back above 50% -- a key mark for incumbents -- after dropping 3 points below in June.

The survey of 595 likely primary voters was conducted July 21 with a 4% margin of error.

The number of Americans identifying themselves as Democrats has been on the decline for the past two years, Gallup reports. With that, far fewer states in 2010 are dominated by Democrats as were in 2008, when the party won the White House and extended its majorities in both chambers of Congress.

Now, just 44% of Americans identify themselves as Democratic or leaning Democratic, an 8-point drop since 2008. The number of independents has concurrently increased by 8 points to 16%, while Republican identification has remained stable at 40%.

The results were taken from 175,000 interviews with American adults over the first six months of the year. While party identification doesn't necessarily predict how one will vote or voter turnout -- especially when these results are of adults, not necessarily registered or likely voters -- the trend line still shows a more politically competitive country this year.

The number of states where Democrats hold at least a 10-point lead in party ID has declined by more than half over the last two years, going from 30 in 2008, to 24 in 2009, to 14 in 2010. Meanwhile, solidly Republican states have increased from four in 2008 to seven in 2010, and toss-up states have increased from 10 to 16 over the past two years.

"The key finding at this juncture is that Democrats, not Republicans, have been the net losers as Americans shift away from the major parties," writes Gallup's Frank Newport. "The overall result is a more competitive partisan environment this year than has been the case in the last two years, underscoring the potential for Republicans to do well and pick up seats in this year's midterm elections."

Missouri Republican Roy Blunt has taken his largest lead in a poll since May, leading Democrat Robin Carnahan by 6 points in the race for the state's open Senate seat. Blunt takes 48% to 42% for Carnahan and 10% undecided.

Blunt now leads by 4 points in the RCP Average.

According to the Mason-Dixon poll conducted for the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, both challengers should cruise easily through next week's primaries to officially begin what's expected to be a competitive general election. However, President Obama's standing in the state could portend trouble ahead for Carnahan in a state Obama came 4,000 votes shy of carrying in 2008.

Just 34% approve of the job Obama is doing as president, 12 points below the national average. Even as the president's job approval rating has hovered below 50% for months, his favorable rating -- which takes note of how voters see him personally -- has often remained much higher. But not in Missouri, where just 33% hold a favorable view of Obama.

Blunt will likely open the general election race with more money than Carnahan. As of July 1, Blunt had more than $4.5 million in the bank compared with Carnahan's more than $3.6 million.

The survey of 625 registered voters was conducted July 19-21 with a 4% margin of error.

"There's plenty of money out there, the only question is how to spend it" - former energy czar Van Jones, speaking today at the Netroots Nation conference in Las Vegas.

Ari Paul begins this American Prospect article on the chances of New York gubernatorial hopeful Andrew Cuomo with five fighting words for stat heads:

If you believe the polls, New York's Democratic attorney general, Andrew Cuomo, the son of three-term Gov. Mario Cuomo, is a shoo-in as the state's next governor.

He goes on to make the case for why we might not believe the polls. What it boils down to is, this would not be your father's Governor Cuomo. Why Andrew Cuomo

has been alienating organized labor, a major part of the state Democratic Party's base. In June he broke with tradition among progressives by not seeking the endorsement of the union-backed Working Families Party. And his tough approach to public-employee pensions was cribbed from right-wing talking points. Using his platform as attorney general, he criticized pension-padding -- a legal method whereby workers pile on overtime in their final years of employment to increase their annual retirement payments -- saying it is "chronic and is very, very expensive."

I don't think that Paul's case is very convincing, but he is right that traditionally New York Democrats have relied on unions to get out the vote. Cuomo isn't doing that now, at least in part, because unions are not so popular with taxpayers these days.

Republican Senator John Barrasso of Wyoming, competing for the title of national spoilsport, has held up legislation that would have the federal government acquire the Billy Carter Service Station Museum. The tribute to former President Carter's late, wacky brother, which the Daily Caller helpfully explains "has old gasoline pumps, stacked tires outside, colorful articles from Carter's closet, commendations from around the world and 'Billy Beer' paraphernalia," is surrounded by a 30 acre lot that the government would have bought for $17 million. Semi-serious question for more seasoned RCP readers: Was Billy Beer any good?

Rasmussen released a new survey this afternoon that finds Arkansas Sen. Blanch Lincoln polling far behind her Republican challenger, Rep. John Boozman. It's the fourth poll released this week to show Lincoln back double-digits, with 19 points the smallest margin of the four polls.

This poll has Boozman taking 60% of the vote and Lincoln 35%, with just 3% undecided as the calendar closes in on 100 days until the election. Lincoln has not led one poll this year, and this 25-point gap is not even close to being the largest margin of the year (38 points, May 19).

The survey of 500 likely voters was conducted July 20 with a 4.5% margin of error.

Boozman has some catching up to do in the money race, as Lincoln ended the second quarter with nearly three times as much money as him ($1.8 million to $620,000). So far, however, that money gap has mattered little.

West Virginia Gov. Joe Manchin begins the special election race for West Virginia's vacant Senate seat with a 16-point advantage over Republican John Raese, a new Rasmussen poll finds. Manchin leads with 51% to 35% for Raese.

Hindering his prospects, Raese takes just 56% of the Republican vote, while Manchin wins 78% of the Democratic vote and 29% of Republicans.

Raese, a businessman, is one of five Republicans vying for the nomination in the Aug. 28 primary, but with Rep. Shelley Moore Capito opting against running he's the most prominent name in the field. Raese has two unsuccessful Senate races under his belt: a close 1984 match against now-Sen. Jay Rockefeller; and a far less competitive race against the now-late Sen. Robert Byrd, who died June 28.

Manchin has primary challengers as well but is expected to win the nomination with little trouble. He and the legislature completed a bill Monday night that allowed for a special election this year, rather than have the seat held by an appointee until 2012.

The survey of 500 likely voters was conducted July 22 with a 4.5% margin of error.

On RCP, Jay Cost offers a primer on the 2010 House midterm elections. On RCP's Election 2010 page, Kyle Trygstad writes about Sharron Angle's new ad in the Nevada Senate race, and Sean Trende previews the competitive race in Florida's 22nd district.

On RCM, Larry Kudlow argues that easier tax rates, rather than easier money, will boost the economy. Louis Woodhill writes that Republicans should acknowledge the economic errors of the Bush administration.

Finally, on RCS, Art Spander defends high salaries in sports, arguing that they are simply a result of supply and demand.