On RCP, Sean Trende uses the example of California and the effect of its immigration measures on its political make-up to detail why the Arizona illegal immigration law will not necessarily damage the Republican Party in that state.

On RCW, Daniel McGroarty writes that the Russian spy case may be more serious than most reports suggest.

On RCM, John Tamny praises Thomas Woods' book, "Meltdown." Diana Furchtgott-Roth highlights the problems with a provision in the financial reform legislation that says race and gender employment ratios must be observed by financial institutions that do business with the government.

Finally, on RCS, Jeff Neuman says he's ready for the LeBron James free agency saga to end.

SC Sen Candidate Alvin Greene (D):

Another thing we can do for jobs is make toys of me, especially for the holidays. Little dolls. Me. Like maybe little action dolls. Me in an army uniform, air force uniform, and me in my suit. They can make toys of me and my vehicle, especially for the holidays and Christmas for the kids. That's something that would create jobs. So you see I think out of the box like that. It's not something a typical person would bring up. That's something that could happen, that makes sense. It's not a joke.

The new Field poll in the California Senate race shows Democrat Barbara Boxer leading Republican challenger Carly Fiorina by just three points, 47 to 44. And if those numbers weren't worrying enough for the 3 term incumbent, there's more:

Boxer's slight numerical lead masks potentially serious problems for the senator, starting with how 52 percent of the respondents hold an unfavorable view of her.

At the same time, her job approval rating is among the lowest that Field has measured for her since she was first elected to the Senate in 1992: 43 percent of registered voters disapprove of her performance while 42 percent approve. Among likely voters, 48 percent disapprove and 42 percent approve.

Field Poll director Mark DiCamillo called the results "very ominous" for Boxer.

The Field Poll is just one of four such polls taken in the last six weeks showing the same thing: Boxer is at just 46.0% in the RCP Average, leading Fiorina by an average of just 4.5 points.

Late last night Sarah Palin endorsed her latest "Mama Grizzly" - CeCe Heil, running in Tennessee's fifth Congressional district. Palin wrote:

As a small business owner, attorney, constitutional scholar, and proud mother of two, she will fight tirelessly to protect our freedoms and rein in the excesses of an out-of-control federal government that seems set on spending away our children's future. CeCe brings the business sense and the constitutional understanding that is so needed in DC right now. (And those of you who follow the music scene in Nashville will recognize the name of CeCe's husband, Rick Heil, from his band Sonicflood.)

Please join me in supporting CeCe Heil's campaign by visiting her website at www.ceceforcongress.com and following her on Facebook and Twitter.

Heil is one of a dozen Republican candidates battling it out in the party's primary, which will take place three weeks from today on Thursday, August 5. The winner will take on Democrat Jim Cooper who, after serving 6 terms representing Tennessee's 4th district from 1982-1994, was elected to the heavily Democratic fifth district in 2002 with 66% of the vote and hasn't been seriously challenged since.

On RCP, Tony Blankley writes that President Obama's confusing public words about a withdrawal date have hindered America's ability to succeed in Afghanistan. Also, in case you missed it yesterday, Jay Cost wonders whether it's time to reorganize the Republican Party in the wake of the latest Michael Steele controversy.

On RCM, Steven Malanga describes the political challenges facing New Jersey Governor Chris Christie.

Finally, on RCS, Art Spander writes that Tiger Woods will face a far less friendly and deferential media at the British Open. Finally, visit "The Cup Running Over" blog for a preview of today's Spain-Germany semifinal match.

Meg Whitman and Jerry Brown enter the general election season in a near tie, according to the latest Field Poll (6/22-7/5, 1005 LVs, MOE +/- 3.2%).   Whitman trails Brown by just a point, 44%-43%.  This is represents slight movement toward Brown, well within the error margin, from the poll's last iteration in March.  The classic North/South split in California politics emerges in this poll, with Brown running well in the San Francisco Bay area and "Other Northern California," while Whitman's stronghold is in Orange County/San Diego.

What an interesting contrast. Here's Mike Barnicle this morning saying Sharron Angle, the Republican nominee in the Nevada senate race, "sounds like a mental patient." Joe Scarborough follows by declaring that Angle's "2nd amendment solution" crack means the Nevada Senate race is "over" and that they should move on to talk about a race that will at least "be close."

Meanwhile, thousands of miles outside the Morning Joe bubble, the Las Vegas Review-Journal reports the following today:

NOV. 2 ELECTION: Parties firing up voters
Far more Republicans than Democrats voted in primary
By LAURA MYERS

Two out of three voters in the Clark County primary were age 46 to 75.

The college crowd stayed home: 18- to 25-year-olds made up only 2.25 percent of voters.

And Republicans turned out in far greater numbers than Democrats -- 93,125 compared with 73,122 -- in the state's biggest population center and biggest election-year battleground.

The June 8 primary may be behind us, but a closer reading of who cast ballots offers insight into what each political party must do to turn out the most voters to win on Nov. 2.

The article also provides a more sober appraisal of the race from a Republican operative:

Ryan Erwin, a Republican operative, agreed that in the end, the election will likely come down to the bread and butter issue of the economy, as it does just about every November.

In Nevada, 14 percent of workers are unemployed and there are record home foreclosure and bankruptcy rates.

"For all the noise there's been about whether Sharron Angle's too conservative to win, a valid question is whether Washington is too liberal for Harry Reid to win," said Erwin. "Will Reid be blamed for Washington's problems? The answer right now is yes. But if he can turn that around, he can win."

George Will traveled to Las Vegas and got almost the exact same impression, which he related in his column on Sunday.

As Sean mentioned previously, Reid was going to be in trouble regardless of who won the Republican primary. Looking just at polling against Angle, Harry Reid hasn't polled above 43 percent this entire year - despite having spent some serious money on ads.

That could change, course. But it highlights the point that more than anything else this race is a referendum on the incumbent. Sharron Angle may "sound like a mental patient" to Mike Barnicle and the East Coast chattering class, but to voters in Nevada the biggest thing she has going for her is that she isn't Harry Reid.

It's inarguable that Obama had the thinnest overall resume of any President ever elected, but Mark Halperin goes out of his way to lower the curve for our 44th President on foreign policy with this:

"Obama came into office with very little personal familiarity with his foreign counterparts, and during these first 18 months, he has had to spend much of his time in getting-to-know-you mode. This has hampered his ability to realize tangible progress on many international fronts, and without close bonds to his colleagues around the world, he remains in many ways less influential abroad than perhaps every post–Cold War President before him."

The fact is, every president has to spend time getting to know foreign leaders. Outside of George H.W. Bush, whose eight years of experience as Vice President provided him with a wealth of contacts and relationships abroad, no president in the modern era had much, if any, "personal familiarity with his foreign counterparts" before taking office. The best Jimmy Carter, Ronald Reagan, and Bill Clinton could claim was limited personal interaction with foreign leaders based mostly on trade missions in their capacity as chief executives of the states the represented as Governors.

As Governor of Texas, George W. Bush did claim a personal relationship with the President of Mexico, even though he was mocked by the media for suggesting this represented real world foreign policy experience - and his inability to name some obscure foreign leaders received far more attention in the press.

Yet I can't recall any member of the media giving past presidents such a gracious exception as Halperin offers Obama, arguing that the reason his foreign policy has been so ineffective thus far is because he's had to spend the last year and a half in the "getting to know you mode."

In case you missed it, over the weekend we ran a piece by Chris Brady of the Troops First Foundation on Operation Proper Exit, an initiative that gives wounded Army veterans the chance to return to Iraq. Brady explains the dual purpose of the mission:

1) allow the veterans to bring closure to their service and 2) show troops in the war zone that injuries sustained in battle were surmountable. These soldiers, and others on similar trips, chose to return because they wanted to walk out of Iraq, as opposed to having been carried out. Equally as important, they wanted to visit comrades and see the significant progress in Iraq so they would know that their sacrifices and those of so many others were not in vain.

Read the rest of the story about these eight remarkable soldiers. And also consider making a donation to Troops First so they can continue their important work. Visit www.troopsfirstfoundation.org.

On RCM, Louis Woodhill writes that America is entering the second dip of a double-dip recession. John Tamny argues that a default would be a positive for New York City since it would force the city to downsize its bloated political bureaucracy.

On RCS, Tim Joyce writes that it's impossible to determine the "greatest of all time" in tennis. Still, he argues that a compelling argument can be made that Rafael Nadal is the greatest player of this generation thanks to a 5-2 head-to-head record with Roger Federer in Grand Slam finals.

With NBA free agency in full swing, RCS ranks the "Top 10 Free Agents With the Biggest Impact." Finally, check out "The Cup Running Over" blog for a preview of today's Uruguay-Netherlands semifinal match.