Gallup: Dem Dominance Declining In 2010
Posted by Kyle Trygstad | Email This | Permalink | Email Author
The number of Americans identifying themselves as Democrats has been on the decline for the past two years, Gallup reports. With that, far fewer states in 2010 are dominated by Democrats as were in 2008, when the party won the White House and extended its majorities in both chambers of Congress.
Now, just 44% of Americans identify themselves as Democratic or leaning Democratic, an 8-point drop since 2008. The number of independents has concurrently increased by 8 points to 16%, while Republican identification has remained stable at 40%.
The results were taken from 175,000 interviews with American adults over the first six months of the year. While party identification doesn't necessarily predict how one will vote or voter turnout -- especially when these results are of adults, not necessarily registered or likely voters -- the trend line still shows a more politically competitive country this year.
The number of states where Democrats hold at least a 10-point lead in party ID has declined by more than half over the last two years, going from 30 in 2008, to 24 in 2009, to 14 in 2010. Meanwhile, solidly Republican states have increased from four in 2008 to seven in 2010, and toss-up states have increased from 10 to 16 over the past two years.
"The key finding at this juncture is that Democrats, not Republicans, have been the net losers as Americans shift away from the major parties," writes Gallup's Frank Newport. "The overall result is a more competitive partisan environment this year than has been the case in the last two years, underscoring the potential for Republicans to do well and pick up seats in this year's midterm elections."
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