After a disheartening NPR poll out yesterday, Democrats received much better news today from the latest AP-GfK Poll, which finds the public far more open to keeping the party in power in 2011.

The health of the economy often shapes elections, and we won't know what that will be for several more months, but by a 47%-42% margin, more people trust Democrats to guide the economy. Also, nearly two-thirds said their household budgets are in good shape. Meanwhile, by a 46%-39% margin, people want Democrats to keep control of Congress.

Still, it's not all good news for Dems:

Even so, there's plenty in the poll to encourage Republicans, and nothing that contradicts many analysts' views that the GOP has a solid shot of capturing majorities of one or both chambers of Congress.

The public's anti-Washington mood remains robust, with 55 percent saying they want a new member of Congress — bad news for Democrats with more incumbents to defend. A low 24 percent approve of how Congress is doing its job, a hefty 72 percent still say the nation's economy is in poor condition, and 77 percent consider huge federal budget deficits a top concern.

The poll was conducted of 1,044 adults from June 9-14 with a 4.3% margin of error.

In the open race for governor of Colorado, former Rep. Scott McInnis (R) holds a 5-point lead over Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper (D), a new Rasmussen poll finds (June 14, 500 LV, MoE +/- 4.5%). The two are running to replace outgoing Gov. Bill Ritter (D), who announced he was not seeking re-election after one term. Before the general election can begin, McInnis must first get past businessman Dan Maes, who ties Hickenlooper in the poll.

McInnis 46 (-1 vs. last poll, May 11)
Hickenlooper 41 (nc)
Und 9

Hickenlooper 41
Maes 41
Und 13

RCP rates this race a Toss Up.

On RCP, Tony Blankley argues that due to the schism between the Karzai government and the Obama administration, failure in Afghanistan is "virtually inevitable."

On Politics Nation, Kyle Trygstad reports on the Utah Republican Senate primary.

Doug Clawson, writing on the Media Watch blog, argues that the biggest problem with MSNBC's upcoming documentary, "The Rise of the New Right," is Chris Matthews.

On RCM, Steven Malanga writes that the work of the president's deficit reduction commission will be difficult in the face of a public that is disillusioned with government's ability to keep its promises.

On RCS, Art Spander writes that Tiger Woods is ready to challenge for the U.S. Open title this week.

Finally, visit RCS for continuing coverage of the World Cup.

A new Rasmussen poll of the Iowa governor's race finds Democratic Gov. Chet Culver down 26 points to former Republican Gov. Terry Branstad. Anything under 50% means an incumbent has the potential to be vulnerable, and Culver is barely polling in the 30s.

A Des Moines Register poll conducted in early February had a similar result, and just one poll this year has found Culver with at least 40% support. This survey of 500 likely voters was conducted June 14 with a margin of error of +/- 4.5%.

Branstad 57
Culver 31
Und 6

RCP rates this race Likely Republican.

The Nevada Senate race got a little more interesting this week as Republican nominee Sharron Angle began her visit in Washington. She spoke at the weekly Republican Senate luncheon, then met with NRSC Chairman John Cornyn and later with staffers at the NRSC.

The Las Vegas Sun's Jon Ralston notes in a column this morning that the fact that Angle made this trip is a negative for Reid:

I may have been wrong about Sharron Angle. And that may be very bad news for Harry Reid.

I assumed Angle would resist attempts by skittish national Republicans to moderate her views, or at least frame them more palatably for a general election. Strong tea is fine for a primary, but decaf is much preferred for the general. [snip]

But judging by what is wafting back from the much-hyped Ms.-Angle-Goes-to-Washington trip, she is submitting to a makeover that, if not Capraesque, is at least Scott Brown-like (indeed, she has some of the Massachusetts Miracle's handlers). And if she can feint toward the middle on issues that might have alienated her from independent voters — or at least massage them in a non-L. Ron Hubbard way — Reid, despite his Angle Marginalization Plan, may be the one consigned to the fringe.

Still, Angle is in Washington partly to get her campaign up to general election form after running on a small budget in the primary. Cornyn told reporters last night that it will take "a few weeks."

Meanwhile, it was reported this week that President Obama will be making his second trip to Nevada this year, this time to help pad Reid's expanding coffers. He also attended a fundraiser for Reid in Las Vegas last year.

As the Salt Lake Tribune reports this morning, the GOP primary race to replace outgoing Sen. Bob Bennett is getting a tad nasty with just days to go before the election.

The familiarity of weeks on the campaign trail and more than a dozen debates appears to have bred contempt between Mike Lee and Tim Bridgewater.

With less than a week remaining in the race, the two Republican Senate candidates have turned up the heat on the campaign, each taking shots at the other's experience and track record and questioning if he is the type of senator Utah needs.

The Lee campaign began airing a new television ad on Tuesday, which accuses Bridgewater of a business career built on jockeying for federal funds for his business ventures.

As I report over on Politics Nation, Tuesday is expected to be close, though that's mostly the belief because no one can really tell if either candidate is connecting with the primary electorate more than the other.

But with less than a week to go, there is no clear favorite in the race. At least one survey from a well-known local pollster is expected to be released over the weekend, which may provide the clearest sense of a frontrunner -- if there is one -- since the convention.

"A lot of people believe had more of the Bennett supporters stuck around to vote in that last round at the convention, Bridgewater would have won the 60 percent needed to take the nomination," said LaVarr Webb, a political consultant and former journalist in Salt Lake City. "But since the convention, Lee has picked up a little more of the momentum. And it's hard to know what's going to happen."

Lee and Bridgewater will spend the next few days continuing to attempt to distinguish themselves from the other, as many people see little daylight on the issues between the two.

PPP (D) polled North Carolina's Eighth District, where freshman Democrat Larry Kissell finds himself in a tough race for re-election.  According to PPP, Kissell leads businessman Tim D'Annunzio 48%-26% and leads Sportscaster Harold Johnson 41%-35%.  Johnson is the establishment pick while D'Annunzio . . . isn't.  D'Annunzio won 37% of the vote in the primary to Johnson's 33%; they will meet in a runoff next week.

Kissell's situation is precarious against either candidate.  D'Annunzio has raised $1.4M to date ($1.2M of which comes from the candidate), while Johnson has pulled together $362,652 ($240,000 of which is from the candidate).  Kissell has raised $600,000.

Kissell's district is also somewhat more Republican than Bob Etheridge's, which I examined yesterday.  While both district perform nearly identically at the Presidential level and both are R+2 districts, at the local level Democratic candidates typically run a point or two worse here than they do in the Second.  If the Second has a slight preference for local Democrats, this is truly a swing district.

One difference between Kissell and Etheridge is that Kissell has compiled a fairly conservative voting record.  This seems to have resulted in a dropoff in support among Democrats in the district.  Moreover, there are rumors of a forthcoming third-party challenge from the left.

RCP will probably wait until the primary shakes out to re-evaluate this race, which we presently rate as Leans Democrat.  Kissell isn't quite in Travis Childers territory -- trailing his opponent -- but he's right around 40% against Johnson.  Against Johnson it looks like a tossup with a thumb on the scale for the Republican; it's more complicated with D'Annunzio, but we would probably keep a thumb on the scale for Kissell until D'Annunzio proves that he can keep himself together for the campaign.

A new national Public Policy Polling survey (June 4-7, 401 GOP RV, MoE +/- 4.9%) finds that no presumed Republican presidential candidate has yet to pull away from the crowd to become a clear front-runner in the race to take on President Obama.

Mitt Romney continues to lead the field, but takes no more than a quarter of the vote against Mike Huckabee, Sarah Palin, Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul. Others are considering bids as well but were not included in this survey. Palin has the highest favorable rating (67%) and a relatively low unfavorable rating (18%), but finishes third against two other former governors, Romney and Huckabee.

Romney 25
Huckabee 22
Palin 19
Gingrich 15
Paul 6
Other 5
Und 6

On Politics Nation, Kyle Trygstad writes that after a slew of retirements, Democrats are adopting a defensive posture in an attempt to hold ground in a difficult election year.

On RCP, Thomas Sowell criticizes the White House for focusing on politics instead of governance. Also on RCP, Jed Babbin documents the Bush Administration's failure to pursue people leaking classified information to the press and wonders whether the Obama Justice Department will compound the errors made by the previous administration.

On RCM, Josh Barro recaps New Jersey's history of ineffective property tax reform and argues that Gov. Chris Christie's "Cap 2.5" proposal is different. Also, John Tamny writes about four decades of stock market history, arguing for a stable dollar defined in terms of gold.

Finally, RCS ranks the Top 10 Biggest Conference Shake-Ups.

Today Stuart Rothenberg writes:

The post-Nevada primary chorus was loud and clear last week after former state Assemblywoman Sharron Angle won the GOP Senate primary and the right to face Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D) in November.

Everyone seems to think that Reid is measurably better off now than he was before the primary and that he now has a 50/50 chance of winning another term. Everyone but me.

Well, not quite everyone. Here's RCP's Sean Trende from a week ago - on the morning of the GOP primary in Nevada:

The conventional wisdom is that Republicans are primed to blow the best opportunity they've had in decades to oust Harry Reid by nominating Sharron Angle, a Christian conservative with backing from the Club for Growth. She leads by 8.3 points in the RCP Average. But the truth of the matter is that that Harry Reid is in deep, deep trouble, no matter who wins today's GOP primary.

Sean lists four reasons Reid remains vulnerable. Read them in detail here.