On Politics Nation, Kyle Trygstad previews the week ahead in politics, including Tuesday's votes in Utah, North Carolina and South Carolina.
On RCP, Cathy Young writes that feminism would be better off if its proponents embraced debate rather than strict orthodoxy.
On RCM, Bill Frezza writes that though BP should and will face serious consequences for its missteps in the Gulf, environmentalists aren't held accountable for the deaths they cause in Africa by restricting production of DDT that could protect against malaria.
RCM Editor John Tamny, writing on Forbes.com, attributes the Dow's inability to sustain increases over 10,000 over the past decade to bad government policy.
On RCS, Jeff Neuman recaps the error-filled final round at the U.S. Open.
ND House Poll: Pomeroy In Trouble
Posted by Kyle Trygstad | Email This | Permalink | Email Author
North Dakota Rep. Earl Pomeroy (D) is in tough shape, according to a new Rasmussen poll (June 15-16, 500 LV, MoE +/- 4.5%). Not only is he polling below 50% -- a clear sign of an incumbent's vulnerability -- but his Republican opponent, Rick Berg, has eclipsed the 50% mark for a second straight month. This is the fifth straight month Berg has led the race.
Berg 51 (-1 vs. last poll, May 21)
Pomeroy 44 (+1)
Und 5
RCP rates this race Leans Republican.
WA-3: Top House Race
Posted by Kyle Trygstad | Email This | Permalink | Email Author
The Seattle Times this morning takes a close look at the race for Washington state's 3rd district, an open seat contest that the national Republican Party is aiming for in November. Democratic Rep. Brian Baird, who's represented the swing district for six terms, announced his retirement in December.
Baird has endorsed Denny Heck of Olympia to replace him. The former state representative and chief of staff for Gov. Booth Gardner is the clear Democratic front-runner, with more than $500,000 in the bank. Federal records show he's loaned his campaign $250,000.
Republicans, though, see opportunity.
Voters are restless as the economy struggles. The new national health-care law remains unpopular with many. And Democrats in the state Legislature just approved $800 million in unpopular taxes, including those on beer, soda and candy.
The National Republican Congressional Committee considers the 3rd District a key race and already has made targeted phone calls there. It plans to devote more resources to the race later.
The primary is Aug. 17, and the frontrunners for the GOP nomination are state Rep. Jaime Herrera and financial adviser David Castillo, who worked in the Bush administration. Herrera is in the first tier of the NRCC's Young Guns program, and through the end of March Herrerra had nearly three times as much money on hand.
Either Republican will be at a financial disadvantage in the general election, but on their side is the mood of the country. The GOP is targeting districts with a larger Democratic advantage than this, and if the party is to win back the House this year, WA-3 is the kind of district it will need to pick up.
RCP rates this race a Toss Up.
Dems' Political Landscape Not Improving
Posted by Sean Trende | Email This | Permalink | Email Author
Last week, Nancy Pelosi assured analysts that they could “take it to the bank” that the Democrats would hold onto the House. But after a series of polls that came out on Monday and Tuesday, I would seriously think twice before making a trip to Wachovia. These polls have only reinforced the view I have held from April of this year that a 50-seat loss or so is the midpoint scenario for Democrats this fall, rather than the 25-40 seat range that most analysts seem to be talking about.
This week's generic ballot tracking poll from Gallup shows Republicans with a 5-point lead, tying their previous best showing from 1994. The previous two weeks revealed a 6-point lead (the largest in 50 years of Gallup tracking) and a tie. Three datapoints do not a trend make. But it is hard to ignore that two of the best three generic ballot showings for Republicans ever in Gallup occurred in the last two weeks.
Rasmussen's tracking poll showed Republicans opening up a 10-point lead in the generic ballot. This is significantly larger than the .4 average that RCP currently shows. But Rasmussen is the only pollster who has imposed a likely voter screen since mid-May. Other pollsters will add likely voter screens later in the year, and that usually moves the ballot toward Republicans.
Even the polls with better news for Democrats come with asterisks - they were either polls of adults (which typically skew even more heavily toward Democrats compared to the actual electorate than do registered voter polls) or actually showed some improvement for Republicans from their previous iterations.
But the worst news for the Democrats comes from NPR's recent polling. Using a top-notch Republican and a top-notch Democratic polling firm, NPR polled 60 districts represented by Democrats that it considered the most competitive. It isn't a simple generic ballot - it named the actual candidates where incumbents were running. It further broke these down into two "tiers:" Tier I (the 30 Democratic districts it considered "most competitive") and Tier II, (the next most competitive 30 Democratic districts). NPR also polled the ten districts represented by Republicans that it considered the most competitive.
Obama's approval is horrible in both "tiers" of districts represented by Democrats. 53% of voters disapprove of him in the "Tier I" districts, while 56% disapprove in the "Tier II" districts, including a near-majority who strongly disapproves of the President. He's 50-50 in the districts held by Republicans, but Obama averaged a 16.15% victory in these districts in 2008 (the districts polled that are held by Democrats were carried by McCain by a point or so on average in 2008).
Against this landscape, it should not be surprising that NPR finds a Democratic debacle in the making in these districts. Voters prefer, on average, a Republican to the Democrat by 9 points in "Tier I" districts and by a 2 point margin in the "Tier II" districts. Among the most enthusiastic voters, it is even more ominous for Democrats: Republicans lead by 14 points in the 60 districts represented by Democrats. In the districts held by Republicans, by contrast, the Republican lead by 16 points over all, and by 21 points among the most enthusiastic voters.
Three conclusions follow from this. First, very few Republicans seem likely to lose in 2010. Second, if we use a spitball estimate that Republicans will win 2/3 of the competitive Democratic districts, which seems reasonable if the President is averaging a 40% approval rating there and Democrats are behind by 5 points on average in these districts, that nets the Republicans 40 seats right there.
But perhaps most importantly, what does this say about the next 30 or 60 Democratic districts, which were not polled? If the Republicans are winning handily overall in both the seats commonly thought to be highly competitive and in the seats thought to be less competitive, that seems to imply that there are probably a lot of races that aren't on anyone's radar screen that are competitive. I'm not saying that Republicans would win 2/3 of these districts or that they are winning there by ten points, but even a 30% win rate in the next tier of seats gets the Republicans to 50 seats overall. And I'm guessing their win rate would be higher, given how poorly Democrats are faring in their Tier I and Tier II seats.
This is consistent with some of the house polling we've seen this week, with Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin trailing her opponent by twelve points, Travis Childers trailing his opponent (in Republican polling) by eight points, and Larry Kissell polling around 40% against one of his GOP opponents. All three incumbents are clearly in quite a bit of trouble, but the NPR poll classifies Childers as a "Tier I" candidate, Kissell as a "Tier II" candidate, and did not consider Herseth-Sandlin vulnerable.
What is perhaps the worst piece of information for Democrats is that they are not likely to march into November with a message that they will be able to rally voters around. NPR tested Republican and Democratic themes, and found the Republican theme winning in almost every instance. Near-majorities of voters in both tiers of districts represented by Democrats "strongly" believe that Obama's economic policies have done nothing to stop the recession, and have only run up the deficit. The Republican message on spending beats the Democratic message by twelve points, on the economy by about ten points, on health care by about ten points, and on Wall Street reform by about ten points.
In other words, the messages that the Democrats are counting on to get themselves out of their hole are not resonating with the electorate in their battleground districts. In fact, they are losing overall in the districts that NPR polled that are represented by Republicans - which again, Obama won with about 58% of the vote on average in 2008.
The bottom line is that Democrats are on pace for an ugly November. They're increasingly running out of time to change the dynamic, and it looks about as likely that things will get worse as that they will get better. If the elections were held today, the balance of the evidence suggests they would lose 50-60 seats. If you think the political environment will improve for Democrats, you can adjust your expectations accordingly, but if you think they will get worse, you can do the same.
NY Sen Poll: Republicans Cut Gillibrand Lead
Posted by Kyle Trygstad | Email This | Permalink | Email Author
A new Rasmussen poll (June 16, 500 LV, MoE +/- 4.5%) finds New York Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand still up double digits and right at the 50% mark against her three potential Republican opponents, but her lead has slimmed against all three since last month. Former Rep. Joe DioGuardi, attorney Bruce Blakeman and economist David Malpass are all now polling in the 30s.
Gillibrand 49 (-2 vs. last poll, May 12)
DioGuardi 38 (+10)
Und 12
Gillibrand 49 (+3)
Malpass 34 (+7)
Und 13
Gillibrand 50 (-1)
Blakeman 38 (+7)
Und 10
RCP rates this race Likely Democrat.
AR Gov Poll: Beebe +24
Posted by Kyle Trygstad | Email This | Permalink | Email Author
Arkansas Gov. Mike Beebe (D) is running well ahead of Republican Jim Keet in his bid for a second term, a new Rasmussen poll finds (June 15, 500 LV, MoE +/- 4.5%). It's similar numbers to Rasmussen's polling in the state's Senate race, except Republican John Boozman is the one with the huge lead over Sen. Blanche Lincoln.
Beebe 57 (+4 vs. last poll, May 19)
Keet 33 (-5)
Und 9
RCP rates this race Safe Democrat.
Etheridge's District Moved To Leans Democrat
Posted by Sean Trende | Email This | Permalink | Email Author
In the wake of yesterday's SurveyUSA poll showing Bob Etheridge down a point against Renee Ellmers, RealClearPolitics has decided to move the race from Likely Democrat to Leans Democrat. While it is horrible news for an incumbent to poll at 38%, we proceed cautiously when we only have one poll with which to evaluate a race. Moreover, there is something to Tom Jensen's post over at PPP (D) reminding us of the poll they did immediately after Joe Wilson's famous “you lie” outburst, showing Wilson trailing his potential Democratic challenger by a point.
Of course, there are some critical differences here as well: Wilson is a conservative Republican running in an R+9 district. Etheridge, on the other hand, is a generally centrist Democrat running in an R+2 district (though it is more Democratic at the state and local level), who has compiled a voting record in this Congress that is much more in line with the national Democrats. This incident is also occurring much closer to the November elections than the Joe Wilson incident. We will continue to monitor this race, and will revise it as appropriate as we receive more polling.
TX Gov Poll: Perry +8
Posted by Kyle Trygstad | Email This | Permalink | Email Author
After eclipsing 50% for the first time last month, Texas Gov. Rick Perry (R) has again dipped below that mark but remains within the four-point range Rasmussen has found him in since the beginning of the year. The new poll (June 16, 500 LV, MoE +/- 4.5%) finds former Houston Mayor Bill White inched back up to 40% after falling to 38% last month.
Perry 48 (-3 vs. last poll, May 13)
White 40 (+2)
Und 8
RCP rates this race Leans Republican.
On RCP, Tom Bevan digs into the polls and argues that though the president's approval ratings have remained steady throughout the Gulf oil crisis, ratings of his leadership and handling of the crisis have sharply declined.
Ralph Peters contends that succumbing to pressure from Afghan President Hamid Karzai to stop night raids by special operations forces would be disastrous for the American war effort. Also on RCP, Thomas Sowell argues that government action is not the answer to an economic crisis.
On Politics Nation, Kyle Trygstad reports on the decision by South Carolina Democrats to uphold Alvin Greene's Senate primary victory.
Writing on Forbes.com, RCM Editor John Tamny argues that Bill and Melinda Gates and Warren Buffett would help more people by holding onto their wealth since money saved and invested provides capital to entrepreneurs and, in turn, stimulates job creation.
On RCS, Art Spander writes about Tiger Woods' disappointing first round at the U.S. Open.
Finally, the U.S. plays its second game at the World Cup this morning. Check out The Cup Running Over blog for a preview of all of today's action.
Florida Senate/Gov Candidates Meet
Posted by Kyle Trygstad | Email This | Permalink | Email Author
Along with three top gubernatorial candidates, the four major Senate candidates in Florida -- Marco Rubio (R), Charlie Crist (I), Kendrick Meek (D) and Jeff Greene (D) -- appeared together yesterday at a Sarasota forum in front of 100 members of the media.
The general election race seemed to be a three-way contest until the billionaire Greene stepped up to challenge Meek in the primary. He's launched several ads on TV, including one yesterday in the Washington, D.C., media market. Greene said he's running because he's "angry and frustrated about what's going on in Washington," according to the Naples Daily News.
Rubio said he'd "like to see radical tax simplification where Americans could fill out their taxes on a post card." He also joked: "I can assure you that a year ago at this time when I got into this race, running against the incumbent governor of your own party was not the next logical step up the political ladder."
Meanwhile, Crist was the only candidate to show up not wearing a suit and tie, and instead adorned "jeans and a safari-style shirt" after coming from a meeting with marine scientists about the oil spill.
Meek confirmed his support for the health care reform bill Congress passed earlier this year, noting: "I'm glad we took the step, and I know there will be many steps after that."
The Miami Herald broke down all the "political fireworks" that occurred yesterday at "the largest single gathering of major statewide candidates to date in this hectic political year. It produced some striking moments."
