My how things have changed. One year ago, almost to the day, President Obama was swatting flies with Jedi-like precision in the middle of interviews:

Today he has flies landing on his face in the middle of speeches. How strange that two random incidents with flies have become a metaphor for Obama's struggling presidency.

When former Gov. Tommy Thompson opted against running, many observers downgraded the possibility of Republicans picking up Russ Feingold's Wisconsin Senate seat. But the state GOP-endorsed candidate, businessman Ron Johnson, is now statistically tied with Feingold in a new Rasmussen poll (June 21, 500 LV, MoE +/- 4.5%).

Feingold 46 (nc vs. last poll, May 27)
Johnson 45 (+1)
Und 7

Feingold leads the other Republican in the race, Dave Westlake, by a 47%-41% margin. But with the state party firmly behind Johnson after endorsing him May 23 at the state party convention, Westlake will have trouble defeating Johnson in the Sept. 14 primary. Two other Republicans, Dick Leinenkugel and Terrence Wall, dropped out.

The result is virtually unchanged since last month, just after the convention, which is unwelcome news for Feingold. As a three-term incumbent, polling under 50% at this point in the race often portends vulnerability in November. And Johnson is already on the air with TV ads introducing himself to the state.

RCP currently rates this race Leans Democrat.

Texas Gov. Rick Perry's lead in his re-election bid has vanished, with Democratic nominee Bill White now tying Perry in a new Public Policy Polling survey (June 19-21, 500 RV, MoE +/- 4.4%). This is the first poll to show Perry without a lead, and the reason is that independents now favor White, the former Houston mayor, by a 42%-36% margin.

Perry 43
White 43
Und 14

"Bill White has the potential to give Democrats their biggest bright spot on what will probably overall be a bad election night in November,” said PPP president Dean Debnam.

RCP rates this race Leans Republican.

Arizona Sen. John McCain still leads by more than 10 points in his competitive primary race against former Rep. J.D. Hayworth, a new Rasmussen poll finds (June 16, 707 LV, MoE +/- 4%). But he dropped back below 50%, a sign of vulnerability for the four-term senator and former presidential nominee. The entrance of Tea Party activist Jim Deakin brought both McCain and Hayworth down from last month.

McCain 47 (-5 vs. last poll, May 19)
Hayworth 36 (-4)
Deakin 7
Und 8

The Aug. 24 primary is now just two months away. At this point, RCP rates the general election race Likely Republican.

On Politics Nation, Kyle Trygstad breaks down today's Senate primary in Utah and the runoffs in North Carolina and South Carolina.

On the Media Watch blog, Doug Clawson writes about how social media sites have become many people's go-to sources of news.

On RCM, John Tamny argues that Nouriel Roubini's ideas, if implemented, would lead to further economic hardship. Josh Barro writes about Illinois' budget woes.

Tim Joyce recaps Roger Federer's close call in his first round match at Wimbledon on RCS. Also, RCS ranks the Top 10 Most Stunning First-Round World Cup Exits. And finally, check out RCS Sidelines for live updates on second round match-ups as the group stage of the World Cup comes to a close.

Although voters still want to hear more about how he plans to solve the state's budget problems, New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo leads Republican Rick Lazio by 32 points, according to a new Quinnipiac poll (June 15-20, 1592 RV, MoE +/- 2.5%). Cuomo also leads Carl Paladino by 36 points, and Lazio leads Paladino in the GOP primary by a 46-17% margin, with 28% undecided.

"Except for those reservations, you'd almost have to ask why we should bother with an election," said Quinnipiac polling director Maurice Carroll. "Cuomo trounces both of the Republican would-be governors, who haven't gained an inch in two months."

Cuomo 58 (+3 vs. last poll, April 13)
Lazio 26 (nc)
Und 13

Cuomo 59 (-1 vs. last poll, April 13)
Paladino 23 (-1)
Und 15

RCP rates this race Safe Democrat.

In the Senate special election race, Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand is slowly becoming more well known after taking over for Hillary Clinton 18 months ago. She has a 37% favorable rating, with 23% viewing her unfavorably and 39% still haven't heard enough about her. Her Republican opponents, however, are nearly completely unknown. In the GOP primary, Bruce Blakeman leads David Malpass 14-11%, with 67% undecided.

Gillibrand 46 (-1 vs. last poll, April 13)
Blakeman 26 (+1)
Und 26

Gillibrand 45
Malpass 23
Und 31

RCP rates this race Likely Democrat.

The Senate Judiciary Committee will begin hearings next week on the Supreme Court nomination of Elena Kagan. The committee announced this afternoon the hearings will start Monday June 28 at 12:30 p.m. in the Hart Senate Office Building.

Informal debate over Kagan's nomination has already been going on for weeks, of course, and Kagan has already completed her tour of visits with senators. Judiciary Chairman Patrick Leahy has been vigorously defending Kagan's record in the lead-up to next week's hearings, including a statement from the Senate floor last week in defense of her policies as dean of Harvard Law School.

"Those intent on opposing this nomination, just as they are intent on undercutting President Obama at every turn, have searched high and low for a basis to oppose this intelligent and accomplished nominee," Leahy said Wednesday. "I understand their partisanship, but disagree with it. I do not think it is good for the country."

Florida Gov. Charlie Crist has widened his lead in the three-way race for the state's next senator, a new poll conducted for the state Chamber of Commerce finds (June 9-13, 607 LV, MoE +/- 4%). Crist, running as an independent, leads Republican Marco Rubio by 11 points with Democrat Kendrick Meek treading in the low teens.

Crist 42
Rubio 31
Meek 14

RCP rates this race for the open Republican seat a Toss Up.

In the governor's race, wealthy former hospital executive Rick Scott leads the former frontrunner for the GOP nomination, Attorney General Bill McCollum, by a 35%-30% margin. In the general, both hold modest leads over Democrat Alex Sink, with independent Lawton Chiles trailing with 15%.

RCP rates the governor's race Leans Republican.

Pundits continue to describe this year's battle for control of the House as a tossup.  I see things differently -- I think the House distinctly leans Republican, with the midpoint something along the lines of a 1994-ish result.  We saw a similar effect in reverse in 2006, where pundits were so wedded to the idea of Republican control of the House and the steep hill that Democrats had to climb to get to *15 seats* that they dismissed all the signs pointing toward the Democrats easily taking control of the House until fairly late in the game.  Popular arguments advanced that year: not enough GOP open seats, not enough vulnerable GOP incumbents, and quality Democratic challengers lost in primaries to no-names like Carol Shea-Porter, John Hall, and Jerry McNerney.  Sound familiar?

Anyway, Gallup's latest poll shows a massive enthusiasm gap between the Republicans and the Democrats, with Republicans leading by 15 points on the question of whether they are more or less enthusiastic to vote than in previous elections.  This is the largest GOP gap since 1994, when they led by ten points, and is larger than a similar gap favoring the Democrats in 2006.  Again, why analysts have a hard time believing the GOP will perform at least as well as it did in 1994 is, quite frankly, beyond me.

Don't get me wrong: Things may change between now and election day, and the Democrats are investing heavily in turning this around.  But if the election were held today, I see few signs that the Democrats would come close to holding the House.

With tomorrow's Republican primary likely to decide the next senator from Utah, Tim Bridgewater will head into the day with a 9-point lead in the polls, according to a survey conducted last week by local pollster Dan Jones & Associates for KSL TV and the Deseret News.

Bridgewater 42
Lee 33
Und 25

"This is going to be very, very difficult to call," Jones told DN. "In the old vernacular, this is a horse race."

With a quarter of voters undecided, KSL quoted Jones saying: "No, this election is not over...It's very volatile and could go either way, and it depends on who gets out the vote."

The survey of 581 likely Republican voters was conducted June 12-17 with a margin of error of +/- 4%.