Public Policy Polling released new surveys from Pennsylvania on the competitive governor and Senate races. In the governor's race (June 19-21, 609 RV, MoE +/- 4.0%), Republican Tom Corbett holds a 10-point lead over Democrat Dan Onorato, thanks in large part to Democrats' reluctance to get behind Onorato.

Just 57% of his party's voters currently back Onorato, while Corbett pulls 21% of Democrats. Onorato may be growing his support among his own party after a competitive primary process, but Corbett's favorability rating has grown among Republicans, Democrats and independents.

"If Dan Onorato can haul his own party members back into the fold over the next four months, he could still win," said PPP president Dean Debnam. "If not, it looks like the governorship will continue its 40-year back-and-forth trend between the two parties."

Corbett 45
Onorato 35
Und 20

RCP rates this race Leans Republican.

In the Senate race, Democrat Joe Sestak is running even with Republican Pat Toomey. In the three polls released since Sestak defeated Sen. Arlen Specter in the May 18 primary, including this one, Sestak has led, trailed and now tied Toomey.

After a divisive primary, Sestak now has the support of 70% of Democrats, while Toomey does about the same with Republcans -- 73%.

"Joe Sestak is tied with Pat Toomey even though we see a Pennsylvania electorate for this fall that is much more Republican friendly than the one that turned out two years ago," said Debnam. "If Democrats can get their voters more engaged they'll be favored here."

Sestak 41
Toomey 41
Und 18

RCP rates this race a Toss Up.

Oregon Sen. Ron Wyden is back below the dreaded 50% mark in a new Rasmussen poll (June 17, 500 LV, MoE +/- 4.5%) but continues to lead Republican Jim Huffman by double digits. Huffman, a law professor, is still unknown to much of the state, and four-in-10 voters still don't have an opinion of him one way or the other. As for Wyden, who's finishing up his second full term in office, 52% hold a favorable opinion of him. Still, even in this Democratic-leaning state, he's below 50%.

Wyden 47 (-4 vs. last poll, May 24)
Huffman 37 (-1)
Und 10 (+3)

RCP rates this race Likely Democrat.

Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick now holds a 7-point lead in his re-election bid, according to a new Rasmussen poll (June 21, 500 LV, MoE +/- 4.5%), a drop from 14 points last month. In the three-way race, Patrick leads Republican Charlie Baker and independent Tim Cahill, both of whom saw a positive move in the poll since May.

Patrick 41 (-4 vs. last poll, May 10)
Baker 34 (+3)
Cahill 16 (+2)
Und 9

Patrick still remains above 40%, however -- a number he didn't eclipse until last month. RCP currently rates this race Leans Democrat.

For a senator up for re-election, polling under 50% and still overcoming his connection to the 2007 D.C. Madam case, this report from ABC News certainly won't help Louisiana Republican David Vitter:

A longtime aide to Louisiana Sen. David Vitter, who has been assigned by the senator to oversee women's issues, pleaded guilty in 2008 to charges stemming from a knife-wielding altercation with an ex-girlfriend.

The aide, Brent Furer, has had repeated brushes with the law dating back to the 1990s, an ABC News investigation has found. Yet Furer has continued to receive his taxpayer-financed senate staff salary in Washington, even as court records show he remains wanted on an open warrant in Baton Rouge stemming from an unresolved misdemeanor DWI charge.

Those who have had encounters with Furer say his presence on Vitter's payroll raises serious questions about the senator's judgment. Melanie Sloan, executive director of Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington, said it concerns her that the senator has talked so forcefully as an advocate for women and an opponent of drunk driving, and yet would keep someone with Furer's background on his staff.

"It says something terrible about Senator Vitter's judgment that this is the kind of guy he wants to keep in his office," said Sloan, who first alerted ABC News to the assault case. "The people of Louisiana should be asking, 'What does this guy do for Senator Vitter to keep him around?'"

The story breaks down further details of Furer's crime, as well as other past incidents.

In a fundraising solicitation for the Democratic Governors Association, Howard Dean brings back to life the specter of George W. Bush in charge of government, adding that the new field of up-and-coming Republicans could "actually be worse."

Dean explains to supporters why this year's governor's races are the most important: redistricting. If Republicans win a majority of the 37 governor's races up for grabs this year, the party could craft itself several more House seats in the following election, he argues.

Dean writes:

Not only do we all remember how bad the Bush-Cheney years were, we're still trying to dig out of the economic, foreign policy, and environmental holes they dumped us in.

Lately, I've been wondering -- could this new crop of Republicans actually be worse? I don't think even George W. Bush would be caught saying some of the nonsense we've heard from some of the folks winning GOP primaries and vying for nominations.

We have to draw a line in the sand. With 37 governors' races currently underway, there's a very real possibility that these "new" Republicans could gerrymander their way to majority control of Congress.
...
And if they win these 37 governors' races, they'll be able to engineer a gerrymandered redistricting process that redraws congressional boundaries and rewrites the definition of 'fair elections' to the Republicans' benefit.

The e-mail is part of the DGA's "Redistricting Fund," with a goal of raising $150,000 by the June 30 campaign finance report deadline.

On Politics Nation, Kyle Trygstad writes about Elaine Marshall's convincing win in the North Carolina Democratic Senate primary.

On RCP, Alvaro Vargas Llosa chronicles the troubles facing Hugo Chavez's Venezuela and the government's attempt to shut down Guillermo Zuloaga's independent TV station. Also on RCP, John Stossel argues that crime decreases when gun laws are relaxed.

Steven Malanga, writing on RCM, argues that former New York Governor Eliot Spitzer is vastly overrated by the press. Also on RCM, Sven Behrendt writes that global leaders can learn a lot from the experience of sovereign wealth funds as they work to create policies that protect the global economy at the G20 meeting this weekend.

Finally, the U.S. has a huge match with Algeria this morning. There are a few scenarios in play, but, simply put, a win means advancement to the knockout round of 16. The RCS staff will be live-blogging the game (and the simultaneous England-Slovenia match) on the Sidelines blog (you can also find it on the RCW Compass blog). It all begins at 9:30 a.m. ET. Stop by and join in.

Tuesday's elections had several notable highlights: Elaine Marshall's big win in North Carolina, Mike Lee's comeback win in Utah, Nikki Haley's history-making night in South Carolina and Bob Inglis becoming the fifth incumbent defeated in 2010.

Here are the final, though still unofficial, results from last night's top races:

North Carolina:

Dem Senate Runoff: Elaine Marshall 60%, Cal Cunningham 40%
GOP NC-8 Runoff: Harold Johnson 61%, Tim D'Annunzio 39%
GOP NC-12 Runoff: Greg Dority 52%, Scott Cumbie 58%
GOP NC-13 Runoff: Bill Randall 59%, Bernie Reeves 41%

Utah:

GOP Senate Primary: Mike Lee 51%, Tim Bridgewater 49%
Dem UT-3 Primary: Jim Matheson* 68%, Claudia Wright 32%

South Carolina:

GOP Governor Runoff: Nikki Haley 65%, Gresham Barrett 35%
GOP SC-1 Runoff: Tim Scott 68%, Paul Thurmond 32%
GOP SC-3 Runoff: Jeff Duncan 51%, Richard Cash 49%
GOP SC-4 Runoff: Trey Gowdy 71%, Bob Inglis* 29%
GOP SC-6 Runoff: Jim Pratt 50.2%, Nancy Harrelson 49.8%

* Denotes incumbent

The field is also set in Mississippi's 2nd district. With nearly 60 percent of the vote in last night's Republican runoff, Bill Marcy defeated Richard Cook and now faces incumbent Democrat Bennie Thompson, now serving his eighth full term in office. This is a strong Democratic district that voted 66% for Barack Obama in 2008.

As a somewhat stark reminder of just how difficult a year this is going to be for Democrats, look at how many Democratic incumbents are polling under 50% in the RCP Average at the moment:

Blanche Lincoln (AR) is at 35.0% against John Boozman.
Harry Reid (NV) is at 41.0% against Sharron Angle.
Michael Bennet (CO) is at 42.7% when matched up against Jane Norton and 43.0% against Ken Buck.
Patty Murray (WA) is at 46.3% against unknowns Clint Didier and Paul Akers and she's at 45.7% against Dino Rossi.
Barbara Boxer (CA) is at 46.6% against Carly Fiorina.
Kirsten Gillibrand (NY) is at 48.0%, 48.3%, and 48.7%, respectively, against three no-name Republicans.
Russ Feingold (WI) is at 49.7% against Dave Westlake. Feingold was at an even lower 48.5% in the RCP Average against Terrence Wall before he dropped his bid at the beginning of the month, and a new Rasmussen poll shows Feingold at a mere 46% and in a statistical tie with Republican newcomer Ron Johnson.

Outside of Bennet and Gillibrand, these are exceedingly well-established members of the Democratic Senate caucus. As you can see, in Arkansas (which votes Republican at the Presidential level but heavily Democratic at the state level) and in the swing states of Nevada and Colorado, Democratic incumbents aren't even within spitting distance of 50%, while those in deep blue states (NY, CA, WA and to a lesser degree WI) are also falling short of majority support. (Note: Two recent polls show Ron Wyden at 51%, which is also pretty soft, but given the quality of Wyden's opposition his seat looks safe at the moment.)

By contrast, Republicans have just two incumbents hovering below the 50% mark in the RCP Averages right now:

David Vitter (LA) is at 49.5% against Charlie Melancon.
Richard Burr (NC) is at 50.0% against Elaine Marshall, who won the Democratic runoff tonight in North Carolina.

Burr and Vitter's numbers are soft for incumbents, especially in a good year for Republicans running in red states, but they also currently hold comfortable leads over top tier Democratic challengers: Vitter is up by 15.7% over Melancon, and Burr is up 15.3% over Marshall.

Obviously, not all of the Democrats under 50% are going to lose, and it remains a real long shot for Republicans to pick up the eleven seats they would need to retake control of the Senate. But the weakness displayed by Democratic incumbents just four months before voters go to the polls has to have the party bosses wondering and worrying just how bad the bloodbath might be on Election Day.

President Obama, speaking just after a cabinet meeting:

Q Mr. President, are you going to fire Mr. McChrystal?

THE PRESIDENT: General McChrystal is on his way here and I am going to meet with him. Secretary Gates will be meeting with him, as well. I think it's clear that the article in which he and his team appeared showed a poor -- showed poor judgment. And -- but I also want to make sure that I talk to him directly before I make any final decisions.

All right. Let me -- actually, let me make one last point about this. Even as General McChrystal is on his way here, I want everybody to keep in mind what our central focus is, and that is success in making sure that al Qaeda and its affiliates cannot attack the United States and its allies. And we've got young men and women there who are making enormous sacrifices, families back home who are making enormous sacrifices. And so whatever decision that I make with respect to General McChrystal or any other aspect of Afghan policy is determined entirely on how I can make sure that we have a strategy that justifies the enormous courage and sacrifice that those men and women are making over there, and that ultimately makes this country safer. I know Secretary Gates feels the exact same way.

All right. Thank you.

Democratic Congressman Charlie Melancon (LA-03) just released the following statement in response to the news of federal Judge Martin Feldman's order lifting the six month deep water drilling moratorium imposed by the Obama administration:

“Today's court ruling is encouraging news for the tens of thousands of Louisianians whose jobs depend on the oil and gas industry. But as long as the Administration is appealing the decision, the future of energy production in the Gulf remains unclear. I hope the President will stand with the thousands of Louisiana families who have spoken loudly with one voice about the dangers this moratorium poses to our economy and order his Administration not to appeal today's decision.”