It appears that the West Virginia Secretary of State is preparing to call a special election for 2012 to replace former Senator Robert Byrd.  This is presumably done on the basis of Code Section 3-10-3, which provides that "the appointment is until a successor to the office has timely filed a certificate of candidacy, has been nominated at the primary election next following such timely filing and has thereafter been elected and qualified to fill the unexpired term."

Since the primary election was held last May, the thinking goes, the next primary would be May 11, 2012, with the election that November.

But intrepid reader Judy White points out that the filing deadline for third parties isn't until July 30, 2010, and the filing deadline for write-ins isn't until September 21, 2010.  Could some enterprising Libertarian/Green collect enough signatures to get his or her name on the ballot, and force a November election?  I'm guessing not, since there's no "primary next," but what if the Libertarians hastily put together a primary in August?  Again, this is pretty theoretical, but given the horrendous wording of the law, I'm not certain this wouldn't work.

Also, regarding my hypothesized Seventeenth Amendment challenge, also-intrepid reader Tom Shriner, Jr., points out a recent Seventh Circuit decision that isn't entirely on point, but which suggests in a footnote that the Second Circuit/Supreme Court decisions aren't necessarily as controlling as I had thought.  I'll confess that the idea that a "temporary" appointee could serve almost half of an unexpired term seems to me to pretty directly contravene the Seventeenth Amendment's clear preference for elected Senators, but what do I know?  Maybe that's why I don't have an Article III commission.

Nikki Haley, highly favored to win the South Carolina governor's race, is out to a 12-point lead in a new Rasmussen poll (June 23, 500 LV, MoE +/- 4.5%). After winning the Republican nomination in a runoff Tuesday, Haley now faces Democrat Vincent Sheheen, a state senator. The margin has closed since just after the June 8 primaries.

Haley 52 (-3 vs. last poll, June 10)
Sheheen 40 (+6)
Und 5

RCP rates this race Likely Republican.

On Politics Nation, Kyle Trygstad previews the week ahead, including the confirmation hearings for Supreme Court nominee Elena Kagan and Gen. David Petraeus.

On RCP, Jed Babbin writes that Gen. Petraeus needs to answer five questions about the strategy in Afghanistan at his confirmation hearing. Also on RCP, Patrick Caddell and Kendra Stewart write about the political upheaval taking place in South Carolina and wonder whether or not it is a prelude to a larger national rejection of the political establishment.

On RCM, Bill Frezza details how e-books will transform the publishing industry. RCM Editor John Tamny, writing on Forbes.com, argues that politicians discredit themselves by only holding big corporations and the rich accountable.

On RCS, Jeff Neuman writes that bad officiating at the World Cup has made it difficult for him to embrace soccer.

Finally, if you want more RCP, check us out on Facebook and Twitter (RCPArticles and RCPBlog).

Nine-term Democratic Senator Robert Byrd of West Virginia died this morning. While the cause of death has not been officially announced, it is thought to be from complications related to heat exhaustion and dehydration.

West Virginia has a quirky special election law.  W.V. Code Section 3-10-3 provides that "the appointment is until a successor to the office has timely filed a certificate of candidacy, has been nominated at the primary election next following such timely filing and has thereafter been elected and qualified to fill the unexpired term."  Since the next primary is in 2012 (West Virginia held its primary over a month ago), presumably the special election will be held in 2012 as well.

Obviously Republicans would love for the special election to be held in 2010, when the political environment is extremely favorable to them (although running in West Virginia with Barack Obama at the top of the ticket for the Democrats wouldn't be terrible for them either).  Presumably, there could be a legal challenge to the law, possibly under the Seventeenth Amendment, which mandates that open Senate seats by filled by special elections, but which also provides that Governors may make "temporary" appointments until the election is held.  Query whether a 2 1/2 year term is "temporary." (Update:  I've done some digging around, and it looks like the answer here is probably "yes," see Valenti v. Rockefeller, 292 F. Supp. 851, which was affirmed by the Supreme Court in a per curiam opinion).

Regardless of the outcome, all eyes now turn to Governor Joe Manchin.  Manchin is term-limited in 2012, and is thought to want the seat.   Manchin is pro-life, an NRA member, and is the type of Democrat who travels to Iraq and signs a missile "Sending you to hell, from Almost Heaven, West Virginia."  In other words, he's a pretty good fit for the state, which is still quite Democratic at the state and local level.  The trick is that he is Governor, and Governors who appoint themselves to Senate seats don't have great track records.

So look to Manchin to (probably) pass over Nick Rahall and other statewide officeholders for a placeholder candidate, to warm the seat until he can run for it, either in 2010 or 2012.  The Republican bench in the state is still pretty thin -- the only Republican holding statewide or federal office is Rep. Shelley Moore Capito.  She's thought to be interested in a promotion, but would probably find a steep hill to climb against Manchin, even in this political environment.

NOTE:  I should add that the third option, which I am guessing is the most probable, is that there would be a special election scheduled sometime in 2011, a la what happened with Scott Brown.  Regardless, the winner of that election would have to run again in 2012 to fill the remainder of the term.

As Massachusetts senators John Kerry and Scott Brown get set to introduce Supreme Court nominee Elena Kagan to the Senate Judiciary Committee today, a new Boston Globe poll finds Brown, elected just five months ago to fill the remainder of the late Ted Kennedy's term, is the most popular elected official in the state.

Brown, a Republican, out-polls both Kerry and President Obama in the blue Bay State, as 55% hold a favorable opinion of him and just 17% view him unfavorably. Broken down by party, 79% of Republicans, 55% of independents and 42% of Democrats view Brown favorably.

Kerry's favorable number, 52%, was in line with Brown's, but the fifth term senator and former presidential nominee's unfavorable rating of 37% is 20 points higher than Brown's. Obama has a 54% favorable and 42% unfavorable rating.

The survey of 558 adults was conducted by UNH from June 17-23 with a margin of error of +/- 4.2%.

Senate Judiciary Committee leaders Patrick Leahy (D-Vt.) and Jeff Sessions (R-Ala.) announced this afternoon the witnesses that will testify in the confirmation hearings of Supreme Court nominee Elena Kagan. The proceedings begin Monday at 12:30 p.m. in the Judiciary hearing room. Here is the complete list:

American Bar Association Witnesses

Kim Askew, Chair of Standing Committee
William J. Kayatta, Jr., First Circuit Representative

Majority Witnesses

Professor Robert C. Clark, Harvard University Distinguished Service Professor, Austin Wakeman Scott Professor of Law, and former Dean, Harvard Law School
Justice Fernande “Nan” Duffly, Associate Justice, Massachusetts Court of Appeals, on behalf of the National Association of Women Judges
Greg Garre, Partner, Lathan & Watkins, former Solicitor General of the United States
Jennifer Gibbins, Executive Director, Prince William Soundkeeper
Professor Jack Goldsmith, Professor of Law, Harvard University
Marcia Greenberger, Founder and Co-President, National Women's Law Center
Jack Gross, plaintiff, Gross v. FBL Financial Services Inc.
Lilly Ledbetter, plaintiff, Ledbetter v. Goodyear Tire
Professor Ronald Sullivan, Edward R. Johnston Lecturer on Law, Director of the Criminal Justice Institute, Harvard law School
Kurt White, President, Harvard Law Armed Forces Association

Minority Witnesses

Robert Alt, Senior Fellow and Deputy Director, Center for Legal and Judicial Studies, The Heritage Foundation
Lt. Gen. William “Jerry” Boykin, United States Army (ret.)
Capt. Pete Hegseth, Army National Guard
Commissioner Peter Kirsanow, Benesch Law Firm
David Kopel, Esq., Research Director, Independence Institute
Colonel Thomas N. Moe, United States Air Force (ret.)
David Norcross, Esq., Blank Rome
William J. Olson, Esq., William J. Olson, P.C.
Tony Perkins, President, Family Research Council
Stephen Presser, Raoul Berger Professor of Legal History, Northwestern University School of Law
Ronald Rotunda, The Doy & Dee Henley Chair and Distinguished Professor of Jurisprudence, Chapman University School of Law
Ed Whelan, President, Ethics and Public Policy Center
Dr. Charmaine Yoest, President & CEO, Americans United for Life
Capt. Flagg Youngblood, United States Army

The Nevada Senate race is competitive, but at this point the governor's race looks anything but, a new Rasmussen poll finds (June 22, 500 LV, MoE +/- 4.5%). Republican Brian Sandoval, a former judge and state lawmaker, leads Democrat Rory Reid, son of the Senate majority leader, by 22 points.

Sandoval 55 (+1 vs. last poll, June 11)
Reid 33 (+2)
Und 4

The Reid campaign has worked to build some separation between Rory and his father, Harry. His latest TV ad leaves out his last name entirely, which could work to his benefit if voters continue to disapprove of Congress at such a high level.

RCP rates this race Likely Republican.

A new Rasmussen poll (June 23, 500 LV, MoE +/- 4.5%) confirms Republican Mike Lee opens the general election race for Utah's open Senate seat as the overwhelming favorite. In the heavily Republican state and after a closely watched and competitive primary, Lee leads Democrat Sam Granato by 30 points.

Lee 58
Granato 28
Und 9

RCP rates this race Safe Republican.

Since 2008, the percentage of Americans identifying themselves as conservative has risen 5 percentage points to 42 percent, while the number of liberals has dropped 2 points to 20 percent, Gallup reports this morning. If that figure remains through the end of the year, "it would represent the highest annual percentage identifying as conservative in Gallup's history of measuring ideology with this wording, dating to 1992."

The number of moderates, conservatives and liberals remained fairly stable through the 1990s. In 2002, conservatives increased before dipping again after 2004. At that time, the number of liberals grew to 22 percent. Following 2008, liberals and conservatives again began moving in opposite directions.

Those who consider themselves independents increasingly view themselves as conservative. In 2008, 30 percent of independents called themselves conservative; so far in 2010, that number is 36 percent.

On RCP, Cathy Young writes that the diplomatic "reset" with Russia is nothing more than a "charade."

On RCW, Todd Crowell writes about the return of the Hayabusa space probe after a seven-year voyage and the resulting boost to the Japanese space program. Also, check out The Compass blog for the latest analysis of global affairs.

On RCS, Art Spander raves about the historic John Isner-Nicolas Mahut match, writing that the two players will be linked forever. Finally, continue to visit RCS for full coverage of the World Cup. The Cup Running Over blog has previews of the deciding Group G and H games today while the Sidelines blog sorts out all the second round match-ups.