Quinnipiac's latest on the Florida Senate race shows Charlie Crist edging Marco Rubio by four points, with Meek losing support and falling further behind:

Crist 37 (+5 vs. last poll April 15)
Rubio 32 (+2)
Meek 17 (-7)
Undecided 11 (-2)

Overall, Crist is leading by 1.2% in the RCP Average. RCP currently ranks this race as a Toss Up.

Incidentally, Democrat Jeff Greene fairs just as badly as Meek in a 3-way race:

Crist 40 (n/a)
Rubio 33
Greene 14

In the Governor's race, Democrat Alex Sink trails both Republicans in two way match ups and and also in three way races with Independent Bud Chiles:

McCollum (R) 42 (+2 vs. last poll April 19)
Sink (D) 34 (-2)
Undecided 19 (-2)

Scott (R) 42
Sink (D) 32
Undecided 21

McCollum (R) 33
Sink (D) 25
Chiles (I) 19

Scott (R) 35
Sink (D) 26
Chiles (I) 13

RCP currently race the FL Gov race a Toss Up as well.

Just ahead of the President's trip to Florida to check out the oil spill, Quinnipiac is out with a poll today showing Obama's job approval taking a dramatic turn for the worse in the Sunshine State.

Six weeks ago, 50% of Floridians approved of the job Obama was doing as President, while 45% disapproved. Today, however, Quinnipiac finds a 54% majority disapproves of how Obama is handling his job as President while just 40% approve - a net swing of 19 points against the President in the last month and a half.

Not surprisingly, those numbers are nearly identical to Floridians' view of Obama's handling of the Gulf oil spill. Just 37% approve of the job he's done on the oil spill, while 54% disapprove of the way he's handled the disaster.

A new Public Policy Polling survey (June 4-6, 601 RV, MoE +/- 3.9%) finds North Carolina Sen. Richard Burr has extended his lead since last month over Democrats Elaine Marshall and Cal Cunningham. The two are two weeks away from a primary runoff contest that remains a toss up.

Burr 46 (+2 vs. last poll, May 10)
Cunningham 35 (-4)
Und 19

Burr 46 (+3)
Marshall 39 (-3)
Und 16

The results are similar to a Rasmussen survey released earlier today. While Burr holds significant leads, he's polling under 50% -- any incumbent doing so should be considered vulnerable.

Click here for more polling on the race.

Florida Senate candidate Kendrick Meek has some magic on his campaign's side in the form of Earvin Magic Johnson. The former Lakers great will be on ABC's telecast of the NBA Finals tonight, but today he's also featured in a fundraising solicitation from Meek.

"I know what it's like to lead a team to a thrilling victory. And I know what it's like to work hard to help your family get ahead," Magic writes in a message featured on Meek's campaign Web site. "That's why no matter how often Kendrick Meek says he's one of my biggest fans, I will always say I'm a bigger fan of his."

The campaign is raffling away three basketballs autographed by Johnson, and anyone who donates at least $5 by June 13 is entered to win.

"On the court, it always takes a complete team working together to win. The campaign trail is no different," writes Magic. "Everyone has a role to play. Please get in the game today."

Meek is being challenged in the Aug. 24 Democratic primary by billionaire Jeff Greene. The winner will take part in one of the most high profile general election races in the country, along with Republican Marco Rubio and independent Charlie Crist.

On Politics Nation, Kyle Trygstad writes about five under-the-radar primary elections happening on this Super Tuesday.

On RCP, Sean Trende offers four reasons why Harry Reid will face a tough battle against any of the candidates vying for the Republican nomination. Jeremy Lott writes about Mickey Kaus' effort to encourage the Democratic Party to push back on the unrelenting demands of labor unions.

On RCM, Josh Barro writes about Senator Tom Coburn's push to make military spending more efficient. Also, RCM Editor John Tamny reviews Panic by Andrew Redleaf and Richard Vigilante.

Finally, RCS ranks the Top 10 Times Refs Trumped Sport.

California gubernatorial candidates Meg Whitman and Carly Fiorina appear to be shoe-ins for today's Republican primaries, according to a new SurveyUSA poll (June 3-6, 569 GOP LV). If they do indeed win tonight, the two former corporate CEOs will take on two of the most well-known names in California politics -- former Gov. Jerry Brown and Sen. Barbara Boxer.

Governor
Whitman 59 (+5 vs. last poll, May 23)
Poizner 30 (+3)
Six Others 6
Und 5

Senate
Fiorina 48 (+2 vs. last poll, May 23)
Campbell 22 (-1)
DeVore 16 (+2)
Two Others 4
Und 9

For more polling in these races, click here.

OK, up front, if you put a gun to my head and force me to pick the Arkansas Senate race, I don't even blink before saying "Bill Halter."  He's led in the polls, he's probably got an enthusiasm advantage given that he's running an insurgent campaign, and Lincoln is an incumbent stuck below 50%.

But is Lincoln absolutely toast?  I don't think so.  First, polling primaries is a dodgy art, as it is hard to really predict who will turn out.  There's some seeming anomalies in the Research 2000 polling -- for example, it has Halter leading Lincoln by over 30 points among African Americans.  This doesn't seem to be what happened in the first primary; we don't have exit polls, but Lincoln did well in heavily African American counties.  Misallocating the African American vote is part of what caused R2K's polling to be off the mark so badly in Alabama, so I think a word of caution is in order here.

But I think Lincoln has other reasons to be optimistic (or at least to be only cautiously pessimistic).  Her vote was spread out across the First, Second, and Third Congressional district, while Halter's is concentrated in the Fourth.  The First, Second and Third have Congressional runoffs today, while the Fourth does not.  Usually top-ticket races drive bottom-ticket races, but in a generally low-turnout affair like this one, the Congressional candidates' GOTV efforts could make a difference.  Pay particular attention to the First Congressional District, where the runoff is between a very conservative Democrat and a very, very conservative Democrat; if there's some marginal dropoff in interest among progressive voters here, it could hurt Halter.

The heavily Republican Third Congressional district in particular adds an interesting twist here.  There may be some Republicans and quite a few Independents who took a Republican ballot to vote for John Boozman a few weeks ago in the Republican Senate primary, who now take a Democratic ballot to vote in the Democratic runoff (there is no Republican Senate runoff).   I suspect that most of them will vote in the Republican Congressional runoff, but some may get to the polling place and decide that the Senate race is more interesting.  Lincoln won the Third 47%-42% in the first go 'round, so it will be interesting to see if her margin there improves. OK, a couple of readers have informed me that you can't take a ballot from a different party than you did the first time around. I checked this with a county clerk in the Third District, but apparently was misinformed. I guess this is why no one else has focused on this...

Again, I think Lincoln will lose, but I don't think her condition is as critical as many make it out to be.

With the Democratic primary still two weeks from being decided in a June 22 runoff, North Carolina Sen. Richard Burr (R) continues to hold strong leads over his two potential foes, Elaine Marshall and Cal Cunningham, a new Rasmussen survey finds (June 3, 500 LV, MoE +/- 3%). Still, Burr's support is right at the threshold of vulnerability for incumbents, as he takes 50% against Marshall and just 47% against Cunningham.

Burr 50 (+2 vs. last poll, May 5)
Marshall 36 (-4)
Und 8

Burr 47 (-3)
Cunningham 35 (-2)
Und 10

RCP currently rates this race Lean Republican.

Shorter Obama to Kalamzaoo kids: do as I say, not as I do.

Republican John Kasich leads Democratic Gov. Ted Strickland by 5 points in the Ohio governor's race, according to a new Rasmussen poll (June 3, 500 LV, MoE +/- 4.5%) and the incumbent is held to just 42%. Kasich, a longtime congressman-turned-investment banker, could be helped in November by voters' moods on hot-button policy issues: 59% favor repealing the health care bill and 58% favor an immigration law like Arizona's.

Kasich 47 (+1 vs. last poll
Strickland 42 (-3)
Und 8

RCP currently rates this race a Toss Up.

Meanwhile, the open Senate race is all tied up between Republican Rob Portman and Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher, with one-in-10 voters undecided. This is the second straight poll since the May 4 primaries to show the two tied.

Portman 43 (+1 vs. last poll, May 7)
Fisher 43 (nc)
Und 10

RCP currently rates this race a Toss Up.