Illinois Gov. Pat Quinn (D) can't seem to move his support even to the 40% mark, 10 points below where an incumbent should start getting nervous. A new Rasmussen poll (June 7, 500 LV, MoE +/- 4.5%) finds him trailing Republican Bill Brady by 11 points, with just 36% supporting him. Quinn is facing a terrible budget shortfall, as well as the trial of impeached governor Rod Blagojevich, which has him back in the headlines.

Brady 47 (+2 vs. last poll, April 30)
Quinn 36 (-2)
Und 10

RCP rates this race a Toss Up.

Political newcomer Rick Scott has surged to the GOP primary lead in the Florida governor's race, surpassing Attorney General Bill McCollum thanks to a multi-million dollar statewide ad blitz, according to a new Quinnipiac poll (June 2-8, 814 GOP LV, MoE +/- 3.4%).

Scott 44
McCollum 31
Und 24

"In addition to being a testament to the power of television, Scott's ability to take the lead so quickly is also a reflection on McCollum's lack of strong support within his own party despite his two decades in Florida politics," said Quinnipiac assistant director Peter A. Brown.

Meanwhile, another wealthy political first-timer is mixing it up in the Democratic Senate primary (June 2-8, 785 Dem LV, MoE +/- 3.5%). Billionaire Jeff Greene has now pulled into a statistical tie with Miami-area Rep. Kendrick Meek, who is polling under 30% thanks in part to the fact that nearly six-in-10 voters still don't know enough about him.

"Around the country, challengers to so-called career politicians seem to be doing well, and these showings by Scott and Greene certainly fit very well into that trend," said Brown.

Meek 29
Greene 27
Ferre 3
Und 37

Connecticut Democrat Richard Blumenthal's lead in the Senate race is down to 20 points in the latest Quinnipiac survey, mostly due to an uptick in support for Republican Linda McMahon.

Blumenthal 55 (-1 vs. last poll, May 27)
McMahon 35 (+4)
Und 8

Both candidates carry some baggage that's keeping portions of the electorate from supporting them -- Blumenthal's past exaggerations about his military record and McMahon's work as chief executive at WWE. McMahon still faces a primary challenge from Peter Schiff, while former Rep. Rob Simmons has suspended his campaign after losing the party's endorsement. If all three are on the Aug. 10 primary ballot, McMahon would lead with 45% to 29% for Simmons and 13% for Schiff.

“Three weeks after the Vietnam flap, Attorney General Richard Blumenthal has lost a little more ground to Linda McMahon, but he still has a comfortable lead," said Quinnipiac poll director Douglas Schwartz. Prior to the Vietnam controversy, Blumenthal led by 33 points. A week after the controversy, his lead was 25 points. Now it's down to 20 points.”

RCP rates this race Likely Democrat.

In the governor's race, former Senate candidate Ned Lamont holds a 17-point lead over Stamford Mayor Dan Malloy in the Democratic primary. On the GOP side, former ambassador Tom Foley remains the heavy favorite, trailed by Lt. Gov. Mike Fedele and businessman Oz Griebel, with nearly half of voters undecided.

Dems
Lamont 39 (-2 vs. last poll, May 27)
Malloy 22 (-2)
Und 36

GOP
Foley 39 (+2)
Fedele 12 (+1)
Griebel 2 (-3)
Und 44

The survey was conducted June 2-8 of 1,350 RV with a MoE of +/- 2.7%.

Alvin Greene, the man who won the South Carolina Democratic Senate nomination last night despite having no money, no web site and really no campaign at all, has a felony charge pending, the Associated Press reports.

Court records show 32-year-old Alvin Greene was arrested in November and charged with showing obscene Internet photos to a University of South Carolina student. The felony charge carries up to five years in prison.

Greene said he had no comment when asked about the charge Wednesday and hung up on a reporter.

Last night, Greene, an unemployed veteran, astonishingly beat Vic Rawl, a judge and former state legislator, with 59% of the vote. Democratic Party Chairwoman Carol Fowler told the AP that "people who didn't know either candidate and voted alphabetically may help explain Greene's win."

If he remains the nominee in November, he'll face the popular conservative incumbent Jim DeMint.

Florida Democrat Kendrick Meek scores less than half the support of fellow Senate candidates Charlie Crist (I) and Marco Rubio (R), a new Rasmussen poll finds (June 7, 500 LV, MoE +/- 4.5%). Crist and Rubio tie for the lead with 37% apiece.

Crist 37
Rubio 37
Meek 15
Und 11

When billionaire Democrat Jeff Greene replaces Meek in the three-way general election match-up, Crist's support increases by 4 points and Greene takes just 13%.

Crist 41
Rubio 37
Greene 13
Und 10

A Quinnipiac survey released this morning found Crist leading with 37% to 32% for Rubio and 17% for Meek.

Crist now leads by 3.2 points in the RCP Average, and RCP rates the race a Toss Up.

The closest Colorado Senate race would be between Lt. Gov. Jane Norton (R) and state House Speaker Andrew Romanoff (D), a new Rasmussen poll finds (June 7, 500 LV, MoE +/- 4.5%). Meanwhile, Norton leads incumbent Sen. Michael Bennet by 6 points, and tea party-backed Ken Buck (R) leads both Romanoff and Bennet by at least 5 points.

Norton 46 - Bennet 40 - Und 5

Norton 43 - Romanoff 42 - Und 8

Buck 46 - Bennet 41 - Und 8

Buck 45 - Romanoff 39 - Und 11

The nominees won't be known for another two months -- the primaries are scheduled for Aug. 10. At this point, RCP currently rates the general election race as a Toss Up.

Illinois Senate nominee Mark Kirk (R) leads by 3 points in a new Rasmussen poll (June 7, 500 LV, MoE +/- 4.5%). The five-term congressman from the North Shore has been under the microscope over the past week for misstatements about his military service, and 63% of voters say it will be important in deciding how to vote in November.

With both Kirk and Democrat Alexi Giannoulias polling well under 50% and within 3 points of each other, the race is a virtual toss-up at this point.

Kirk 42 (-4 vs. last poll, April 28)
Giannoulias 39 (+1)
Und 12

RCP currently rates this race a Toss Up.

In light of last night's primaries, RCP has moved two Governor's races. In the Nevada Governor's race, the victory of former Judge Brian Sandoval in the GOP primary makes that race a Likely Republican hold. Sandoval leads by 14 in the RCP Average.

The California Governor's race ticks a notch to the left. Former Governor Jerry Brown leads CEO Meg Whitman 45%-38.8% in the RCP Average. While it isn't good news for a politician who has held office in California for decades to be at 45%, the size of his lead probably justifies a Leans Democrat call for now.

On Politics Nation, Kyle Trygstad previews the California Senate race.

Writing on RCP, David Paul Kuhn argues that the oil spill is doing irreparable damage to Barack Obama's presidency.

On the HorseRaceBlog, Jay Cost writes that President Obama should emulate Grover Cleveland and stop injecting himself into things that don't involve him -- like Major League Baseball.

On RCM, Steven Malanga argues that despite the claims of some congressmen and administration officials, teachers don't need a bailout. Finally, Wendy Milling offers a defense of capitalism.

But how you play the game. Mickey Kaus lost to Barbara Boxer by 75.2% last night. At least we get Kausfiles back.