On RCP, Cathy Young writes about libertarian opposition to the Civil Rights Act. She argues that though the view that the law should be repealed is not racially motivated, it is "utopian and reckless."
On RCW, Todd Crowell offers three reasons why Japanese leaders have such short tenures in office.
Art Spander writes on RCS about the fall of USC.
And, of course, today marks the start of the World Cup in South Africa. RCS has full coverage, starting with an interview with Sports Illustrated soccer writer Grant Wahl. Also, Steven and Harrison Stark preview the opening match between South Africa and Mexico, and the RCS staff makes its picks on the Sidelines blog.
Nat'l Journal Insiders Poll: Economy Top Issue
Posted by Kyle Trygstad | Email This | Permalink | Email Author
According to National Journal's weekly Insiders Poll, 73% of Democratic members of Congress and 54% of Republicans said jobs and the economy was the top issue on their constituents' minds.
"It is always about jobs and the economy," one Democrat told NJ. "If the administration does not soon comprehend that, their re-election will look like dead fish floating in the Gulf."
A Republican added that the economy is "followed by budget, second, and the oil spill as a distant third."
With 3%, the least number of Democrats said the budget deficit was the most important issue among their constituents. Also below the economy was the Gulf oil spill (18%), immigration (5%) and health reform (3%).
That stands in stark contrast to Republicans, 26% of whom said the budget was the top issue. That was followed by immigration and the oil spill (8% each), and health reform at 3%.
"My constituents are most concerned about the deficit," one Republican said. "They fired Republicans for a $167 billion deficit in 2006. What do you think they think about a $1.5 trillion deficit in 2010?"
Romney, Palin, Gingrich Off To Good Starts In Iowa
Posted by Kyle Trygstad | Email This | Permalink | Email Author
Name recognition and likability are factors in presidential elections that shouldn't be undersold, and three GOP candidates are off on the right foot in the first state to hold a nominating contest -- Iowa.
In the latest Iowa Poll, Mitt Romney was viewed favorably by 62 percent; Sarah Palin by 58 percent; and Newt Gingrich by 56 percent.
In contrast, 80 percent say they don't know enough about Daniels to have a favorable or unfavorable opinion, 71 percent say they're not sure how they feel toward Thune and 53 percent are unsure about Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty.
The poll measures favorability, not preference. Lots can and will happen before serious presidential caucus campaigns launch next year that will wilt favorability and pump new candidates onto the list.
There's, of course, room for outsiders like Mike Huckabee and Barack Obama, who weren't well known in Iowa in 2006, but opened 2008 with victories there.
Brian Kennedy, Iowa's former state GOP chairman, said the favorability numbers give an indication of which possible candidates would have a good start for the 2012 races.
"I think it confirms what we all suspect, which is Sarah Palin would start off as a formidable candidate both in the Iowa caucus as well as competing for the nomination," Kennedy said. "Mitt Romney doesn't look like he's been bruised from going through this process once."
Candidates Scramble Ahead Of Utah Primary
Posted by Kyle Trygstad | Email This | Permalink | Email Author
It was more than a month ago that Utah Sen. Bob Bennett was ousted in the state GOP convention, and there's now just more than a week to go until the GOP primary between attorney Mike Lee and businessman Tim Bridgewater.
According to the Salt Lake Tribune, new FEC reports show Lee has raised $263,000 from mid-April to early June, compared with Bridgewater's $141,000.
However, Bridgewater's previous personal loans to the campaign, plus $55,000 he tossed in since the state convention, leave him with nearly $233,000 on hand, more than doubling Lee's $107,000.
...
Bridgewater has loaned his campaign $391,745 so far -- more than $300,000 of which he gave before the May 8 convention -- leaving him with a substantial cash edge but a significant debt as well. Tiffany Gunnerson, Bridgewater's spokeswoman, said her boss doesn't plan to loan his campaign any more personal funds and that fundraising efforts are continuing.
Bridgewater got another piece of good news Thursday: Bennett will endorse him in the June 22 primary. While Bennett's support wouldn't have helped at the conservative convention last month, it could help draw the more moderate Republicans to Bridgewater in the primary.
The winner of the primary will likely cruise to election in Utah, perhaps the most Republican state in the country. John McCain won 63% here in 2008, and George W. Bush took 72% four years earlier. Utah hasn't had a Democratic senator since Republican Orrin Hatch defeated Democratic incumbent Frank Moss in 1976.
Gibbs' Lame Excuse on Obama Not Talking With BP
Posted by Tom Bevan | Email This | Permalink | Email Author
Here's a just published piece in which I whack Obama for his failure of leadership over Tuesday's revelation that the President has not spoken directly to BP CEO Tony Hayward - not a single time either in person or on the phone - over the last seven weeks.
Clearly, the White House is on the defensive over this news, announcing (kinda, sorta) that there's a chance the President may meet with Hayward when he's in DC next week. And for the second consecutive day, Robert Gibbs tried to fend off questions from an increasingly skeptical press corps with the excuse that Obama hasn't spoken to Hayward because the BP CEO isn't the one in charge and Obama would have to speak to BP's Board of Directors - even though yesterday Gibbs admitted in the next breath the President hasn't spoken to any of them in the last 51 days either.
Here is Gibbs today employing the same defense again in an exchange with a few incredulous members of the press:
Q The CEO of BP, Tony Hayward, is going to be in town next week to testify. Is the White House considering inviting him to meet with the President?
MR. GIBBS: Well, Tom, as I said yesterday, while Mr. Hayward has certainly been -- is part of that ad campaign, in a corporate structure the relevant person is going to be the chairman of the board. And certainly we would -- we have, as I expressed yesterday, whether it's on claims, whether it's on vessel redundancy and directives, there certainly continue to be concerns and if there's -- I certainly wouldn't rule out that the President might see the chairman of the board at some point.
Q Not Tony?
MR. GIBBS: Again, if there are other people that are relevant to that, that's fine. Again, the corporate structure of the company makes the chairman of the board the relevant entity in approving what BP -- the obligations that BP has to live up to.
Q He may not be here. Tony's going to be here.
Q And the way it works is --
MR. GIBBS: Well, we'll see.
Q So you're no more inclined to see him today than you were yesterday?
MR. GIBBS: No, I wouldn't rule out a meeting with relevant BP officials.
Q But CEOs do lots of stuff on their own without getting approval from the board.
MR. GIBBS: Well, again, this is -- right, but we're not talking about printing new stationary, Chip. We're talking about --
Q They do a lot more than print new stationary --
MR. GIBBS: I understand, but we're --
Q -- the CEO does day-to-day management.
MR. GIBBS: -- talking about -- I just got asked about the financial survival of the company. That's the --
Q But why wouldn't the President meet with the person who is doing the day-to-day management?
MR. GIBBS: The President -- well, the day-to-day management is done with approval of the board.
Q Not day to day. They don't approve every move they make. That's not the way corporate governance works.
MR. GIBBS: Well, again, I have not ruled out a meeting and --
Q And “relevant officials” also covers Tony? Your answer?
MR. GIBBS: If that's deemed so by the chairman of the board, sure.
This is ridiculous. Either Gibbs is utterly and totally clueless or he's being willfully dishonest. And, by the way, as I point out in the aforementioned piece, I don't recall Obama saying he couldn't talk to the CEO's of Wall Street banks and health insurance companies over the last year because they didn't have day to day control over the operations of their respective businesses.
The White House's excuse for why Obama didn't talk to Hayward is transparent, lame, and won't put and end to the questions of how and why Obama has gone through this entire catastrophe without ever speaking directly to the CEO of BP.
Republicans Hold Lead In Generic Ballot
Posted by Sean Trende | Email This | Permalink | Email Author
Earlier today, Tom noted that President Obama's approval rating in the generic ballot has hit an all-time low, coming in at 44% approve, 48% disapprove. It's worth noting that the Democrats' position in the generic ballot has actually improved somewhat over the past week, and that with Gallup's generic ballot reverting to a tie (in contrast to the previous 6-point lead for Republicans), the Republicans are at a .5 lead in the RCP Average. It's also important to remember that the Democrats won the national vote in Congress by about 11 points last time around, so a slight lead in the national generic vote would still result in big gains for the GOP.
Gallup: Obama Job Approval Pops Negative
Posted by Tom Bevan | Email This | Permalink | Email Author
Yesterday Gallup's tracking poll (which is a three-day rolling average) had Obama's job approval rating at 47/45, today it's upside down at 44/48. I guess you could say Obama's job approval got an ass kicking in the last twenty-four hours.....
Overall, Obama remains in net positive territory in the RCP Average - though just barely - at 47.5% approve, 46.7% disapprove.
NV Sen Poll: Angle +11
Posted by Kyle Trygstad | Email This | Permalink | Email Author
Newly minted GOP nominee Sharron Angle has opened up an 11-point lead over longtime incumbent Nevada Sen. Harry Reid, a new Rasmussen poll finds (June 9, 500 LV, MoE +/- 4.5%).
Angle 50 - Reid 39 - Und 6
While it's widely believed that Reid hoped Angle would win the GOP primary, her dominating performance against her primary foes and initial polling of the general election race prove this may be just as difficult a race as it would have been against Sue Lowden or Danny Tarkanian.
Meanwhile, Reid just released his first TV ad of the general election campaign -- a positive spot that highlights his work bringing green energy jobs to hard-hit Nevada. In response, NRSC spokesman Brian Walsh said with unemployment above 13% in Nevada, "the arrogance of this ad is remarkable."
RCP currently rates this race a Toss Up.
On Politics Nation, Kyle Trygstad reports on the Nevada Senate battle between Harry Reid and Sharron Angle.
On RCP, Victor Davis Hanson writes about the Islamic transformation that has been taking place in Turkey for more than a decade.
Also, check out RCP's Media Watch blog, where RCP Video Editor Ian Schwartz offers the latest news from the political media world.
On RCM, Diana Furchtgott-Roth writes about provisions in the tax extenders bill that passed the House in late May that will make America less attractive to innovators and entrepreneurs. Larry Kudlow praises California GOP Senate nominee Carly Fiorina and argues that she can defeat Barbara Boxer in November.
RCM Editor John Tamny, writing on Forbes.com, points out that economic growth drives environmental awareness and argues that excessive regulations on offshore drilling in the wake of the BP oil disaster will hurt Louisiana economically.
Finally, with the start of the World Cup one day away, Steven and Harrison Stark rank all 32 teams in the competition.
CA Gov Poll: 1% Separates Brown, Whitman
Posted by Kyle Trygstad | Email This | Permalink | Email Author
Two days after the primaries, California gubernatorial nominees Jerry Brown (D) and Meg Whitman (R) are statistically tied with just 1 point separating them, a new Rasmussen poll finds (June 9, 500 LV, MoE +/- 3%). In late May, Brown led Whitman 45-41%.
Brown 45
Whitman 44
Und 7
RCP rates this race Lean Democrat.

