There's controversy in South Carolina politics, again, and it centers on the winner of last week's Democratic Senate primary -- Alvin Greene, an unemployed military veteran. His primary opponent, Charleston County Councilman Vic Rawl, has filed an official protest over the results.

But for now, the general election race is between Greene and Republican incumbent Jim DeMint. And a new Rasmussen poll shows DeMint could sleepwalk to a victory. The Republican-leaning state is expected to re-elect DeMint no matter who his opponent is, and DSCC Chairman Robert Menendez said last week South Carolina is not a state the committee is focusing its efforts on.

DeMint leads Greene 58%-21%, with 13% undecided. The poll was conducted of 500 likely voters on June 10, with a margin of error of +/- 4.5%. RCP rates this race Safe Republican.

Travis Childers (D, MS-01) has done everything that a Democrat representing an R+14 district is supposed to do.  He voted against cap and trade legislation, he voted against health care reform, and he even voted against raising the debt limit.  Nevertheless, he finds himself in trouble.  The Republican polling outfit Tarrance Group polled the race, and found that Childers trails the Republican nominee, state Senator Alan Nunnelee, by a 50%-42% margin.  There's a huge error margin here (+/- 5.6%), and you probably have to mentally add a couple of points to Childers' numbers to account for the Republican nature of the polling firm.  Nevertheless, this is a picture much more consistent with a Democrat who is in trouble than with a Democrat in good shape.  RCP currently rates the race Leans Republican.

Conservatives today are a-Twitter over the recent video of Congressman Bob Etheridge berating and possibly battering an interviewer.  To summarize, Etheridge is stopped on the street by a cameraman and interviewer, who ask him if he supports Obama's agenda.  Etheridge quickly becomes irritated, and repeatedly asks "who are you?"  Things take a turn for the worse when Etheridge apparently swipes at one of the interviewers, grabs his arm and refuses to let go, and then cuffs him by the neck and turns him to the camera.

Etheridge has since issued the following apology:

I have seen the video posted on several blogs. I deeply and profoundly regret my reaction and I apologize to all involved. Throughout my many years of service to the people of North Carolina, I have always tried to treat people from all viewpoints with respect. No matter how intrusive and partisan our politics can become, this does not justify a poor response. I have and I will always work to promote a civil public discourse.

So how vulnerable does this make Etheridge?  We at RealClearPolitics currently have the race rated as Likely Democrat.   The district itself, a mish-mash of precincts including parts of metro Fayetteville and Raleigh, isn't as hospitable to Republicans as it looks to be at the Presidential level (R+2).  At the state and local level it is quite a bit more Democratic (much like PA-12).  In 2008 -- a good Democratic year overall -- Democrats carried the district up and down the ticket.  On average, Democrats ran about five points above their statewide average here.  The only race Republicans came close to carrying in this district was the Ag Commissioner race; the other races were won by Democrats by double digits.

Etheridge is also doing well in the fundraising race.  According the the FEC he has over $1 million cash on hand; his opponent, Renee Ellmers, has $5,462.  In addition, Ellmers isn't exactly a typical high-quality candidate:  She's a nurse and county Chamber of Commerce President.

But there are some countervailing pressures on Etheridge.  Ellmers will almost certainly improve her fundraising based upon this viral video, and may be able to put together a more competitive race.

More to the point, Etheridge has generally thrived in the district by compiling a centrist voting record.  This has placed him more in line with the state Democrats, who perform well in the district, than with the national Democrats, whose track record is more problematic.

This time around, however, Etheridge has generally voted the national Democratic line.  He voted for the stimulus package, for "cap and trade" legislation, and for the healthcare bill (which one pollster found only 37% of Etheridge's constituents favored and 53% opposed).  This was probably prompted in part by the weakness of his opponent.  But if the cash flows into Ellmers' coffers, this could prove to be a miscalculation on Etheridge's part.

The district's fundamentals and Etheridge's fundraising advantage still give him a significant advantage in the fall.  But now there is a pretty clear scenario to see how he loses.  This really was somewhere in between "safe" and "likely" Democrat before; it is now probably somewhere between "likely" and "leans" Democrat.  Hopefully we'll get some polling soon to better sort this out; if not, we'll have some updated financial information in about a month.

UPDATE:  Just to be clear (and judging from e-mails, I wasn't), I in no way meant to disparage nursing, or give any opinion as to whether Ellmers would be a good *representative*.  Congress is filled with one-time amateur candidates who are good representatives, and experienced candidates who are bad representatives.  My comments are solely confined to her abilities as a candidate.  Some type of experience with elected office has a statistically significant relationship with success in a race.  This is because these candidates tend to have connections for fundraising, and are trained to avoid foot-in-mouth disease.  Previous electoral experience of some type is definitely one of the factors we use when evaluating whether a candidate has a chance of *winning*, not whether he or she will be a good representative.  Of course there are exceptions to this, and it is only one of many factors.

With a June 22 GOP gubernatorial runoff looming between State Rep. Nikki Haley and U.S. Rep. Gresham Barrett, a new Rasmussen survey (June 10, 500 LV, MoE +/- 4.5%) finds Haley polling much better than Barrett against Democratic nominee Vincent Sheheen. Haley nearly won the nomination outright in the June 8 primary, but fell just short and was forced into a runoff against Barrett.

Haley 55
Sheheen 34
Und 6

Barrett 46
Sheheen 38
Und 6

RCP rates the general election race Likely Republican.

A new Siena Research poll (June 7-9, 808 RV, MoE +/- 3.4%) finds a dip in the stellar polling numbers that New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo, who announced his bid for governor last month, has seen for over a year.

His favorable rating dropped 8 points to 59%, the lowest its been in since at least the last 18 months, and his 26% unfavorable rating is the highest since then as well. But with his numbers so high to begin with and since no Republicans have been able to gain any traction, Cuomo still appears in strong command of the race.

After winning the Republican Party's endorsement earlier this mont, former Rep. Rick Lazio easily leads Carl Paladino in the GOP primary but continues to lag well behind Cuomo in a general election match-up -- despite Cuomo's numbers slipping.

Cuomo 60 (-6 vs. last poll, May 20)
Lazio 24 (nc)
Und 16

Cuomo 60 (-5)
Paladino 23 (+1)
Und 17

RCP rates the New York governor's race Safe Democrat.

In the special election race to fill out the remaining two years of Hillary Clinton's Senate term, Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand's favorable rating has dropped back below the 40% mark but still leads three Republicans by at least 18 points. The Republicans tested include economist David Malpass, former Rep. Joe DioGuardi and attorney Bruce Blakeman, none of whom are well known to voters.
(more...)

With a month-and-a-half left before the Aug. 3 primaries, the leading Republicans running for governor of Michigan lead both Democrats, though in some of the races the margin is just a few points. A new Rasmussen poll (June 9, 500 LV, MoE +/- 4.5%) tests three Republicans: Rep. Pete Hoekstra, Attorney General Mike Cox and businessman Rick Snyder; Democrats are Lansing Mayor Virg Bernero and state House Speaker Andy Dillon.

Of the Republicans, Snyder easily performs best against the Democrats, though he never polls higher than the low 40s.

Cox 40 - Bernero 34 - Und 16

Hoekstra 39 - Bernero 36 - Und 16

Snyder 42 - Bernero 30 - Und 22

Cox 39 - Dillon 37 - Und 15

Hoekstra 40 - Dillon 35 - Und 17

Snyder 41 - Dillon 33 - Und 20

RCP rates this race Leans Republican.

While still polling under 50%, California Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) opens the general election campaign with a 5-point lead over Republican nominee Carly Fiorina, according to a Rasmussen poll (June 9, 500 LV, MoE +/- 4.5%) conducted the day after the June 8 primaries.

Boxer 48 - Fiorina 43 - Und 5

Those numbers are the highest they've been for either candidate this year. Boxer led Fiorina 45%-38% in a May survey.

RCP rates this race Leans Democrat.

On RCW, Joel Weickgenant deciphers the Dutch elections, pointing out that economic issues trumped social policy for voters.

On RCM, Bill Frezza writes about the 3rd Annual Massachusetts Life Sciences Innovation Day Conference and argues that increased government involvement in life sciences will hurt the industry's ability to create innovative products.

On RCS, Jeff Neuman writes about the lackluster effort from Kobe Bryant's teammates last night in Boston as the Celtics took a 3-2 lead in the NBA Finals.

Finally, Doug Clawson returns to the Media Watch blog and chimes in on Helen Thomas' resignation.

While many of his Senate colleagues are in far worse position, Oregon Sen. Ron Wyden (D) holds a double-digit lead with less than five months to go until the general election, a new SurveyUSA poll finds. He's over 50% and up 13 points against law professor Jim Huffman. The results are identical to a Rasmussen poll released last month.

Wyden 51
Huffman 38
Other 6
Und 5

RCP rates this race Likely Democrat.

SurveyUSA also tested the governor's race and found Republican Chris Dudley leading former Gov. John Kitzhaber (D) by 7 points. The Republican is a former basketball player for the Portland Trailblazers.

Dudley 47
Kitzhaber 40
Other 6
Und 7

RCP currently rates this race a Toss Up.

New Hampshire Republican Kelly Ayotte has released a new TV ad that attempts to show her as a Washington outsider, as opposed to Democratic Rep. Paul Hodes.

The former state attorney general's best line: "I'm a prosecutor, not a politician." But it's that piece of her resume that the Hodes campaign is now targeting.

"For weeks, Kelly Ayotte has ducked responsibility and pointed fingers at others for her failure to stop the largest Ponzi scheme in New Hampshire history," said Hodes spokesman Mark Bergman.

The Hodes campaign launched an anti-Ayotte website, The Ayotte Files.