Nine-term Democratic Senator Robert Byrd of West Virginia died this morning. While the cause of death has not been officially announced, it is thought to be from complications related to heat exhaustion and dehydration.

West Virginia has a quirky special election law.  W.V. Code Section 3-10-3 provides that "the appointment is until a successor to the office has timely filed a certificate of candidacy, has been nominated at the primary election next following such timely filing and has thereafter been elected and qualified to fill the unexpired term."  Since the next primary is in 2012 (West Virginia held its primary over a month ago), presumably the special election will be held in 2012 as well.

Obviously Republicans would love for the special election to be held in 2010, when the political environment is extremely favorable to them (although running in West Virginia with Barack Obama at the top of the ticket for the Democrats wouldn't be terrible for them either).  Presumably, there could be a legal challenge to the law, possibly under the Seventeenth Amendment, which mandates that open Senate seats by filled by special elections, but which also provides that Governors may make "temporary" appointments until the election is held.  Query whether a 2 1/2 year term is "temporary." (Update:  I've done some digging around, and it looks like the answer here is probably "yes," see Valenti v. Rockefeller, 292 F. Supp. 851, which was affirmed by the Supreme Court in a per curiam opinion).

Regardless of the outcome, all eyes now turn to Governor Joe Manchin.  Manchin is term-limited in 2012, and is thought to want the seat.   Manchin is pro-life, an NRA member, and is the type of Democrat who travels to Iraq and signs a missile "Sending you to hell, from Almost Heaven, West Virginia."  In other words, he's a pretty good fit for the state, which is still quite Democratic at the state and local level.  The trick is that he is Governor, and Governors who appoint themselves to Senate seats don't have great track records.

So look to Manchin to (probably) pass over Nick Rahall and other statewide officeholders for a placeholder candidate, to warm the seat until he can run for it, either in 2010 or 2012.  The Republican bench in the state is still pretty thin -- the only Republican holding statewide or federal office is Rep. Shelley Moore Capito.  She's thought to be interested in a promotion, but would probably find a steep hill to climb against Manchin, even in this political environment.

NOTE:  I should add that the third option, which I am guessing is the most probable, is that there would be a special election scheduled sometime in 2011, a la what happened with Scott Brown.  Regardless, the winner of that election would have to run again in 2012 to fill the remainder of the term.

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