When former Gov. Tommy Thompson opted against running, many observers downgraded the possibility of Republicans picking up Russ Feingold's Wisconsin Senate seat. But the state GOP-endorsed candidate, businessman Ron Johnson, is now statistically tied with Feingold in a new Rasmussen poll (June 21, 500 LV, MoE +/- 4.5%).

Feingold 46 (nc vs. last poll, May 27)
Johnson 45 (+1)
Und 7

Feingold leads the other Republican in the race, Dave Westlake, by a 47%-41% margin. But with the state party firmly behind Johnson after endorsing him May 23 at the state party convention, Westlake will have trouble defeating Johnson in the Sept. 14 primary. Two other Republicans, Dick Leinenkugel and Terrence Wall, dropped out.

The result is virtually unchanged since last month, just after the convention, which is unwelcome news for Feingold. As a three-term incumbent, polling under 50% at this point in the race often portends vulnerability in November. And Johnson is already on the air with TV ads introducing himself to the state.

RCP currently rates this race Leans Democrat.

--------------------------------------------
Follow the RCP Blog on Twitter.
Become a fan of RCP on Facebook.
--------------------------------------------