On Politics Nation, Kyle Trygstad and Mike Memoli survey the fallout from yesterday's primary elections and the special election in Pennsylvania's 12th district.

On RCM, Steven Malanga argues that it's wrong to blame taxpayers for the deficit when the government has a record of spending money on things the public opposes.

On RCS, Art Spander writes about the San Jose Sharks' Game 2 loss to the Chicago Blackhawks, arguing that while the Sharks teased their fans by finally escaping the first round, they simply lack the speed to match Chicago.

Finally, Doug Clawson writes on the Media Watch blog that newspapers continue to play a central role in British society.

Rob Simmons' campaign manager, Jim Barnett, released the following statement this morning:

"Today's Rasmussen poll demonstrates how quickly fortunes can change when an unvetted, untested candidate is finally exposed to scrutiny. Without spending a dime on advertising, Rob Simmons has slashed Blumenthal's lead to nearly single digits, and in a general election where Rob's record as a real Vietnam veteran is contrasted against Blumenthal's fraudulent record, the choice will be clear.

"While Rob Simmons' record has been subject to intense scrutiny over the course of several hotly contested general elections, the real Linda McMahon remains almost entirely unknown to the voters and the media, except for millions in her own uncontested ad spending. But as Dick Blumenthal has suddenly learned, one's record has a way of catching up to you, and McMahon will not have airwaves to herself for much longer. Given what we know about Linda McMahon's troubling record - from Congressional investigations to criminal prosecutions to, like Blumenthal, lying about her own credentials and record - Republicans should tread carefully and skeptically.

"Character is now an unavoidable issue in this race. Republicans should not believe for one second that extreme wealth will overcome the fundamental character defects that plague Linda McMahon. Republicans will be best represented and have their best chance for victory by nominating Rob Simmons, a decorated Vietnam veteran with the experience and character that money can't buy."

McMahon leads Simmons by 10 points in the most recent Quinnipiac poll taken in mid-March.

We saw last night that Washington ties and incumbency is no benefit this year. But in another heated primary battle, a new Rasmussen poll in Arizona (500 LVs, 5/17, MoE +/- 4.5%) shows Sen. John McCain (R) building on his lead over former Rep. J.D. Hayworth.

Primary Election Matchup
McCain 52 (+5 vs. last poll, 4/13)
Hayworth 40 (-2)
Und 6 (-2)

McCain scores better than Hayworth across the board in terms of his fav/unfav rating. But his recent decision to shake up his campaign staff indicates he's not taking anything for granted with three months until the election.

Here is John Avlon's take on last night's results in Kentucky:

In Kentucky, Tea Party scion Rand Paul picked off Trey Grayson, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell's hand-picked candidate, in a blowout. Paul's win marks a major milestone in the Tea Party movement's evolution to elected politics. His victory speech summed up both sides of the movement. The good: he castigated “those special interests who think the federal government is their ATM.” And the bad: he condemned President Obama for attending the Copenhagen climate change summit alongside leftist dictators Hugo Chavez and Robert Mugabe.

Now hang on just one minute. The "bad" aspect of the Tea Party is giving President Obama a small rhetorical slap over Copenhagen? That's strange coming from Avlon, who's written something close to a weekly screed for the better part of a year accusing the Tea Party movement of being comprised of a bunch of hateful, racist, Nazi-like, right wing whackos.

But Avlon doesn't mention a word about any of this in his "analysis" of last night. Instead, Avlon's biggest concern appears to be that Paul's election sets up "the possibility of a Ron Paul-ite libertarian dynasty in Congress." Last week the Tea Partiers were racists, now they're libertarians?

Indeed, Avlon is not alone: the same group of journalists who spent months declaring that the Tea Party movement is driven - to some degree, if not primarily - by a racial animosity toward the President are now writing in far more favorable terms about the "anti-establishment" nature of Paul's victory. There's nary a word to be found about racism in any of the analysis.

But the logic is inescapable: if the Tea Party movement is composed of a bunch of racists - as Avlon, Frank Rich, Eugene Robinson, Keith Olbermann, and countless other left wing pundits have asserted over the past year - and Rand Paul was unabashed about his affiliation with the Tea Party movement which was by all accounts the overwhelming force behind his victory last night, shouldn't Avlon and Company be condemning Paul for being an elected leader of a group with such views?

Instead, Avlon writes:

Barack Obama seems to be slightly less a lightening rod than the specter of Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid as Republicans try to build on independent voters' deficit-hawk impulses and dislike of unified control of Washington. [snip]

While both parties will try to spin Tuesday night as a victory for their fortunes this fall, all incumbents have been put on notice. The anger at both big government and big business is real; small businesses feel forgotten in the shuffle. The most indelible message of Election Night was articulated by Joe Sestak in his victory speech: “this is a win for the people over the establishment.”

So, John, maybe the Tea Party movement isn't driven by racism after all?

In the wake of the top-of-the-fold New York Times article calling out Connecticut Attorney General Richard Blumenthal for exaggerating his military record, his Republican opponents have made major gains since the last poll taken just two weeks ago.

In a Rasmussen poll conducted yesterday (500 LV, MoE +/- 4.5%) Blumenthal now leads Linda McMahon by just 3 points, with support less than 50%. His lead over Rob Simmons to 11 points after holding a 23-point lead two weeks ago.

Asked about his military service, 53% said the issue will be at least somewhat important in terms of how they vote in November; 27% said it will be very important. A quarter of voters said Blumenthal should drop out, including just 9% of Democrats.

Blumenthal 48 (-4 vs. last poll, May 4)
McMahon 45 (+6)
Und 3

Blumenthal 50 (-5)
Simmons 39 (+7)
Und 5

Blumenthal 53 (-1)
Schiff 37 (+8)
Und 5

Click here for more polling on the race.

The Miami Herald is soliciting questions from readers for their editorial board meeting with Charlie Crist today. Deadline for submissions is noon eastern.

Chip Bok on Eric Holder.

12:40am -- With all but maybe 1% of precincts reporting, Sestak's margin of victory looks to be 8 points, 54-46. No small margin. Neither was the PA-12 special, which Critz (D) won 53-45. -Kyle Trygstad

12:22am -- Another Senate candidate in another state gets some takeaway from the Pennsylvania Democratic Senate primary. "Tonight's results show that Americans are tired of the same career politicians and they're ready for a new generation of leadership," said Cal Cunningham, who's tied up in a North Carolina Democratic primary runoff with Elaine Marshall. -Kyle Trygstad

12:16am -- Pennsylvania will prove to be the most competitive state in the country come November, and we learned tonight exactly who the players will be. Here are a few of the general election contests set up by competitive GOP primaries: PA-3: Rep. Kathy Dahlkemper (D) vs. auto dealer Mike Kelly (R). PA-4: Rep. Jason Altmire (D) vs. attorney Keith Rothfus (R). PA-10: Rep. Chris Carney (D) vs. former U.S. Attorney Tom Marino (R). -Kyle Trygstad

12:05am -- Rep. John Boozman wins Republican nomination in Arkansas Senate race. He'll get a three-week headstart on the general election against either Lincoln or Halter, whoever survives the June 8 runoff. -Kyle Trygstad

11:59pm -- With the first pick in the 2010 Gubernatorial Draft, the Oregon Republican Party has selected ... Chris Dudley! The former NBA star looks to be the nominee as his leading rival has conceded. -- Mike Memoli

11:37pm -- In Oregon's Senate race in November, it's incumbent Ron Wyden (D) against Jim Huffman (R), a law professor at Lewis & Clark College. -- Mike Memoli

11:36pm -- AP has called the Oregon Democratic gubernatorial primary for John Kitzhaber. He's one of five former governors running for his old job this year -- Mike Memoli

11:27pm -- RNC spokesman Doug Heye tips his hat to Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell for scheduling the PA-12 special on the same day as the competitive Democratic Senate primary. It certainly did help get some votes out for Critz. -Kyle Trygstad

11:12pm -- The AP makes the call: The Arkansas Democratic Senate primary is headed for a runoff. Both campaigns surely would like to finish with more votes tonight anyway, giving them some momentum heading into the next few weeks of campaigning for the June 8 contest. -Kyle Trygstad

10:58pm -- Halter is now within 2 points of Lincoln with 38% of precincts reporting. Lincoln leads 44-42-14. -Kyle Trygstad

10:45pm -- Not too much spin from the NRCC on the PA-12 results. Chairman Pete Sessions: "Tonight's result was undoubtedly disappointing, but we will take the lessons learned from this campaign and move forward in preparation for November." He did note that Dems will be running away from Obama and Pelosi in order to survive in November. -Kyle Trygstad

10:42pm -- Fox reports Burns called Critz at about 10:15pm to concede the race. -Kyle Trygstad

10:40pm -- With 70% of precincts in, Critz (D) leads 53-45%. The DCCC believes Critz has already won and released a statement congratulating him. -Kyle Trygstad

10:39pm -- Marco Rubio shows up with a statement comparing Specter to Charlie Crist, saying Specter's loss proves "the American people are tired of the crass political opportunism" and are "rejecting politicians like Arlen Specter and Charlie Crist who stand for nothing but their own political self-interest." -Kyle Trygstad

10:33pm -- In a statement, the NRSC shows its game plan for defining the Pennsylvania general election race, calling Sestak "one of the most liberal members of Congress" with an "extremist liberal voting record," and that he's "part of the problem in Washington." -Kyle Trygstad

10:28pm -- Well, it looks like Specter is going to lose by a fairly healthy margin, becoming the second sitting Senator to lose this cycle. Dan Onorato is the gubernatorial nominee, and might actually get something approaching a majority of the votes. Interesting times in PA tonight -- Sean Trende

10:26pm -- Burns (R) continues to close on Critz (D) but still trails by double digits. With 41% of precincts reporting, Critz leads 54-43%. -Kyle Trygstad

10:20pm -- DSCC Chairman Bob Menendez releases a statement on Sestak's win, saying in part: "“Joe Sestak has a compelling life story, and a powerful message of change. He knows what is wrong with Washington, and if elected to the Senate will shake up how business is done in the Capitol." He also stated that while in the House earlier in his career, Pat Toomey "racked up an extremist voting record that would make Rick Santorum look moderate." -Kyle Trygstad

10:15pm -- Specter became the third incumbent not to receive their party's nomination, following Bob Bennett (R-UT) and Alan Mollohan (D-WV). So far, Blanche Lincoln does not look like she'll become the fourth, at least not tonight. She's up 48-38-13 with 11% in. -Kyle Trygstad

10:13pm -- And the AP calls this one for Joe Sestak. Doesn't look like it will be particularly close -- Sean Trende

10:13pm -- DSCC on Kentucky: "Democrats today nominated a crusading Attorney General with a record of standing-up to the special interests and shaking-up business as usual. ... Republicans nominated a very problematic candidate whose irrational policy positions generate national headlines, but hurt the people of Kentucky." - Mike Memoli

10:10pm -- Worse news for Dan Mongiardo: he's out of a job next year even if Gov. Steve Beshear is re-elected. KY fundraising laws required Beshear to pick a new running mate last year just to start raising money for the 2011 race. -- Mike Memoli

10:09pm -- Ouch. Specter is winning two counties statewide right now: Philly and Dauphin -- Sean Trende

10:02pm -- With just 5% in, businessman D.C. Morrison is making his presence felt in the AR Sen Dem primary by taking 13% and keeping both Lincoln and Halter below 50% for now. Lincoln's up 46-41%. -Kyle Trygstad

10:01pm -- Based on the margins in the few counties that haven't fully reported, Conway may just barely hold on to win the Democratic nomination in Kentucky. His overall lead is down to just over 7,000 votes -- Mike Memoli

9:58pm -- Sestak is now ahead 51%-49%. Philly is about 3/5 in, while the state is about 2/5 in. The fat lady is warming up. -- Sean Trende

9:53pm -- PA-12 special: Critz (D) is up 58-40% with 20% of precincts reporting. He's leading in all but one county that is reporting results, including a slim lead in Burns' home county, Washington. -Kyle Trygstad

9:47pm -- Surprising absolutely no one, Attorney General Tom Corbett wins the Republican nomination for Governor in Pennsylvania. - Sean Trende

9:44pm -- Specter's lead is down to 300 votes. I'm guessing Sestak goes on top soon and doesn't look back -- Sean Trende

9:42 -- Specter is clinging (bitterly?) to a 2,500 vote lead in the Senate primary. Philly and Allegheny are almost entirely in. Even worse for Specter, with Montgomery County 5% in, Sestak is leading 56%-44% there. -- Sean Trende

9:40pm --Mongiardo has now closed to within 10,000 votes of Conway in Kentucky. But there's only about 7 percent of precincts left to count. Could be a photo finish. -- Mike Memoli

9:38pm -- In the Governor's race, Onorato has opened up at 43%-25% lead over Williams -- Sean Trende

9:34pm -- Per my earlier post, with about 20% of precincts in, Holden now leads 60-40%. - Sean Trende

9:29pm -- It's getting really tough to see Specter's road to victory. He's at 51% of the vote, with half of Philly in and with about 1/3 of the vote statewide in. Probably the only thing Specter has going for him is that Montgomery and Bucks counties aren't in. If those go Specter, he can pull it out - Sean Trende

9:23pm -- PA-12 special: Critz is out to a very early 59-39% lead with 4% reporting. -Kyle Trygstad

9:22 -- Wow. With 5% of the precincts in, Democrat Tim Holden is trailing his Democratic primary challenger 44%-56%. Sheila Dow Ford is a former State Board of Education Member running against Holden, who voted "no" on health care reform. - Sean Trende

9:16pm -- It's starting to look a bit bleak for Specter. He's up big in Philly, but it's about 1/3 in now. He's losing just about everywhere else in the state -- Sean Trende

9:11pm -- AP calls Pennsylvania GOP Senate primary for Pat Toomey, who topped Peg Luksik. -Kyle Trygstad

9:10pm -- Interestingly, Specter is also killing Sestak in the few precincts that have come in from Delaware and Berks Counties. If that keeps up, Sestak is in real trouble -- Sean Trende

9:09pm -- Specter's lead is really starting to shrink. It's down to 55-45, with a little more than 10% of the precincts reporting. Philly is 25% in, too, and Sestak is leading most other places -- Sean Trende

9:08pm -- Jack Conway's lead in the Democratic primary in Kentucky is down to 5 points, or about 20,000 votes, with nearly 80 percent of precincts reporting. His 28,000 vote advantage in Jefferson County may prove to be the decisive margin -- Mike Memoli

9:02pm -- There's also a Democratic primary for Governor going on. Allegheny County Executive Dan Onorato led handily in most closing polls, but he's currently tied with state Senator Anthony Williams. Williams is from Philly, though, which is where most of the present returns are from. As Allegheny County continues to pour in, expect Onorato to break out -- Sean Trende

8:58pm -- In a memo on the Kentucky races, the NRCC mentions only the 6th District seat held by Democrat Ben Chandler. Andy Barr won the GOP primary tonight. -- Mike Memoli

8:52pm -- With 2% of the precincts in, Specter is leading 65%-35%. But almost all of those precincts are from his base in Philly, which is about 10% in. The question is how well he runs outside of Philly. Sestak should get some good results from Western PA and Delaware County once they come in -- Sean Trende

8:51pm -- Speaking at his victory HQ, Rand Paul says the tea party is about saving the country "from a mountain of debt that is devouring our country, and I think can lead to chaos." -- Mike Memoli

8:50pm -- In Kentucky, total votes in the Democratic primary far outpacing that in the Republican primary. But the question is where the conservative Democrats go in November -- Mike Memoli

8:49pm -- We interrupt our regular scheduled programming to note that the NY Times has published an editorial on Richard Blumenthal (which presumably will run in tomorrow's paper) taking a rather skeptical view of his explanation of "misplaced words" and saying, "this deception seems to have been part of a larger pattern of misleading voters." Thus ends Blumenthal's no good, horrible day - and maybe his hopes for winning the Connecticut Senate seat as well - Tom Bevan

8:37pm -- Another race to watch in Arkansas is the 3rd district, which was left open by Rep. Boozman who is running for Senate. The winner of the GOP primary will likely hold the district, which voted 60%+ for both McCain and Bush. -Kyle Trygstad

8:36pm -- Okay, we have some movement. Philly is counting really quickly, and it looks pretty heavy for Specter: 67%-33%. This was pretty much expected, but the question is how turnout was here compared to the rest of the state -- Sean Trende

8:34pm -- Okay, we stress that these are REALLY preliminary results, but Sestak has a 53%-47% lead with 4 precincts in. Of 9,233. Let's settle in for a looooong night -- Sean Trende

8:25pm -- Not what Dems want in any primaries this year: The AP describes the Lincoln-Halter race as such -- "The race has been one of the most bitter and expensive primaries in Arkansas history." -Kyle Trygstad

8:23 -- Twenty-three minutes in, and we're still waiting for the first returns in PA. Slooooooow counting - Sean Trende

8:20pm -- Conway's lead over Mongiardo in the Kentucky Democratic primary is down to single digits, as more votes come in from Mongiardo's backyard in Perry County and surrounding areas -- Mike Memoli

8:15pm -- Polls close in Arkansas in 15 minutes. Most are expecting Lincoln and Halter to need a primary runoff, with neither likely to get the 50% necessary to win the nomination today. Rep. John Boozman (R), the favorite in the GOP Senate primary, could have trouble getting 50% with so many opponents. -Kyle Trygstad

8:09pm -- Jim DeMint, who endorsed Paul, calls his victory "part of an American awakening that is taking place across the country. The Washington establishment threw everything they had at him and yet he prevailed." -- Mike Memoli

8:06pm -- In one of the few contested House primaries in Kentucky tonight, AP calls the 3rd district GOP primary for Todd Lally. He'll face incumbent John Yarmuth (D) - Mike Memoli

8:03pm -- In first bit of national party spin, DNC chair Kaine says in a statement that Paul's win is a "stunning loss" and a "show of weakness" for Mitch McConnell. "Unfortunately for Republicans, ordinary Americans are unlikely to be receptive to extreme candidates like Rand Paul in the general election this November," he adds. -- Mike Memoli

8:00pm -- Paul's win over Grayson means VP Cheney is 0-3 in contested GOP primaries this year. He endorsed Hutchison for Texas governor and Bob Bennett in Utah. -- Mike Memoli

7:59pm -- The White House is certainly eagerly awaiting the PA-12 results, as Burns (R) made the race a referendum on the 'Obama-Pelosi agenda.' Perhaps the vote today will give them a clue to how popular that is in an Ohio River Valley swing district that could be mirrored elsewhere in November. -Kyle Trygstad

7:56pm -- Interesting news out of the Senate today. Banking Chairman Chris Dodd watered down Arkansas Sen. Blanche Lincoln's proposal in the Wall Street reform bill that would have all but ended derivatives trading. Speculation was that the whole point of the original proposal was to help her in her primary today. Dodd was able to scratch it with the campaign over...for now. -Kyle Trygstad

7:55pm -- National Democrats may get what they want in Kentucky tonight if Conway maintains his lead. Even though Mongiardo nearly pulled an upset against Bunning in 2004, Conway has been seen as the more attractive general election candidate. In the RCP Average, Conway has indeed proven stronger thus far. -- Mike Memoli

7:49pm -- The key to victory for Specter will be heavy turnout in Philadelphia and its suburbs, which has been his base for years. Obviously this is complicated somewhat by the fact that Sestak is also from the Philly suburbs. He'll be looking for a strong showing in Delaware County, and in the west. - Sean Trende

7:48pm -- AP calls it for Paul. Live video from Paul's Bowling Green HQ here, where the (Tea) Party is just getting started. - Tom Bevan

7:45pm -- On the Democratic side, Jack Conway has a 16,000 vote lead statewide with just about 30% of the vote counted. That's roughly the same margin he leads Mongiardo in Jefferson County, AKA Louisville. --Mike Memoli

7:42pm -- Paul maintains a 20+ point advantage with more than a quarter of the votes counted. We knew it would be a long night for Grayson when his campaign sent this release at 2:30: "Paul Campaign Conducting Widespread Voter Intimidation Scheme." -- Mike Memoli

7:39pm -- Eyes are on the southwestern 12th district, where John Murtha's death left a vulnerable seat for Democrats to defend. Tim Burns (R) and Mark Critz (D) were neck-and-neck going into today. - Kyle Trygstad

7:38pm -- The early reports are that turnout is light, and it was rainy in Phliadelphia today. That is thought to benefit Sestak, but that's pure conjecture and hearsay -- Sean Trende

7:37pm -- Polls close in Pennsylvania in about twenty minutes. I'll be covering the Democratic Senate and Governor's races -- Sean Trende

7:32pm -- With 16% of the votes tallied in Kentucky, Rand Paul is leading Trey Grayson 53 to 34. On the Democratic side, Jack Conway is leading Dan Mongiardo by just 7 points, 47 to 40. - Tom Bevan

Campbell Brown granted permission to leave sinking ship.

It's always a treat to see a Granite State poll of the first-in-the-nation presidential primary. The latest offering from the University of New Hampshire Survey Center, out this afternoon, again shows Mitt Romney a clear favorite with more than 40 percent, though that margin is down since the previous survey two months earlier.

Presidential Primary Election Matchup
Romney 41 (-6 vs. last poll, Feb. '10)
Palin 12 (+3)
Giuliani 11 (-2)
Huckabee 9 (+2)
Gingrich 5 (+1)
Paul 6 (n/a)
Pawlenty 3 (-1)
Santorum 2 (n/a)
Thune 0 (unch)
Johnson 0 (n/a)
Other 3 (unch)
Und 9 (-2)

Every potential candidate performs stronger among registered Republicans than among registered undeclared voters except for Giuliani and Paul. The 2012 contest is open to all voters.

The survey of 228 likely presidential primary voters was conducted between April 18 and 28, and has a margin of error of +/- 6.5 percent.