Four years after he left the U.S. Senate, Mark Dayton (D) can claim frontrunner status as he runs for Minnesota governor, based on numbers from a Minnesota Public Radio / Humphrey Institute poll.

Democratic Primary Election Matchup
Dayton 38
Kelliher 28
Entenza 6
Und 28

Margaret Anderson Kelliher, speaker of the state House, won the state party's endorsement. The primary is not until September 14 August 10. In the general election, Dayton is the only Democrat who leads state Rep. Tom Emmer, the endorsed candidate of Minnesota Republicans.

General Election Matchups
(701 RVs, 5/13-16, MoE +/- 5.8%)
Dayton (D) 35 -- Emmer (R) 31 -- Horner (I) 9 -- Und 25
Emmer (R) 31 -- Kelliher (D) 29 -- Horner (I) 10 -- Und 30
Emmer (R) 32 -- Entenza (D) 28 -- Horner (I) 11 -- Und 29

Outgoing Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R), a potential 2012 presidential candidate, has a 43 percent job approval rating in the state, while 57 percent disapprove. Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D) (64 / 36), Sen. Al Franken (D) (48 / 52) and President Obama (51 / 49) all have better numbers.

RCP currently classifies the Minnesota governor race as a Toss Up.

Democrats still face off for more than two weeks in the Arkansas Senate race. But whoever wins faces a real challenge in November from Rep. John Boozman (R), a new Rasmussen poll (500 LVs, 5/19, MoE +/- 4.5%) finds.

General Election Matchups
Boozman 66 (+9 vs. last poll, 4/26)
Lincoln 28 (-1)
Und 4 (-1)

Boozman 60 (+4)
Halter 33 (+2)
Und 7 (-4)

Lincoln has just a 28 percent favorable rating in the poll, taken one day after the primary. Given the proximity of the survey to the election, the numbers may be artificially high for Boozman. But to be polling more than double an incumbent is certainly a red flag regardless.

Rasmussen does not poll the June 8 runoff between Halter and Lincoln. A recent survey from Research 2000 showed the lieutenant governor ahead, 48-46, in the first post-primary poll.

President Obama also sees diminishing numbers. Just 32 percent of Arkansans approve of his job performance while 67 percent disapprove. Arkansas Gov. Mike Beebe seems immune to his fellow Democrats' struggles. He posts a 72 percent job approval rating, while 28 percent disapprove.

RCP has an excerpt from Ian Bremmer's new book, "The End of the Free Market: Who Wins the War Between States and Corporations?", in which he details the rise of "state capitalism" in countries such as China and Russia.

Also on RCP, Victor Davis Hanson writes about the Marine Corps, highlighting its long record of defeating America's toughest adversaries and its equally long record of tension with military planners and higher-ups.

On Politics Nation, Mike Memoli writes that the expected GOP special election victory in Hawaii's 1st Congressional district could be reversed in November.

On Forbes.com, RCM Editor John Tamny argues that conservatives' arguments against unfettered immigration is contradicted by their views on abortion.

Finally, on RCS, Art Spander offers his take on Floyd Landis.

Despite Eliot Spitzer's effort to rehabilitate his public image (including a regular gig as a political analyst on MSNBC) and hints that he'd one day like to return to public life, two-thirds of New Yorkers want Eliot Spitzer to stay the heck out of politics this year, according to a just released Marist poll.

Dr. Lee Miringoff of Marist writes: “Eliot Spitzer's attempt to reconnect with New York voters is not paying off in the short-run. He has become more visible lately but not more electable.”

The long run isn't looking much better for Spitz: a 52% majority - - including, unsurprisingly, 60% of women - say he should never run for public office again in New York.

It took 181 years for America to pile up its first $1 trillion in debt, but only nine months to ring up its latest trillion. Today America's debt will cross the $13 trillion mark. Have a happy Friday.

Just how seriously is Bill McCollum taking the new challenge to his right? The Florida attorney general, who once had a clear path to the GOP nomination for governor, is featuring an endorsement from Jeb Bush in his first television advertisement of the race.

Since entering the race last month, health care executive and conservative activist Rick Scott (R) has bombarded the airwaves, leading to a "shocking erosion" in McCollum's poll numbers. Mason Dixon found McCollum leading just 38 to 24 over the political newcomer.

Both party favorites, McCollum for Republicans and Chief Financial Officer Alex Sink, have run into potholes. Lawton Chiles III, son of the former Florida governor and senator, has said he's now considering Sink in the Democratic primary. That contest is set for August 24.

More evidence that the Arizona immigration law has been a short-term political winner for Gov. Jan Brewer (R). A new Rasmussen poll (500 LVs, 5/17, MoE +/- 4.5%) shows her opening up a double-digit lead over Attorney General Terry Goddard (D) in the general election. Worse for Democrats: Goddard also trails two of the other potential GOP candidates.

General Election Matchups
Brewer 52 (+4 vs. last poll, 4/27)
Goddard 39 (-1)
Und 3 (-2)

Martin 41 (-1)
Goddard 40 (+2)
Und 10 (-2)

Goddard 42 (+2)
Munger 41 (+1)
Und 7 (-4)

Mills 45 (+2)
Goddard 38 (-1)
Und 10 (-2)

RCP currently classifies the race as a Toss Up.

In yet another interview seeking to clarify his position, Rand Paul tells CNN's Wolf Blitzer that he would have voted for the Civil Rights Act and that racial discrimination was "an overriding problem in the South so big that it did require federal intervention in the '60s."

Here's the relevant portion of the transcript:

BLITZER: All right, I want to give you a chance to explain, because there's a lot of confusion right now about precisely where you stand.
I'll ask you a simple question. If you had been a member of the Senate or the House back in 1964, would you have voted yea or nay for the Civil Rights Act?

PAUL: Yes. I would have voted yes.

BLITZER: So why is there all this confusion emerging right now?

Give me your analysis, because you've had to issue a statement today. There have been interviews on NPR yesterday and MSNBC.

Tell us what's going on.

PAUL: Well, first of all, Wolf, I thought I was supposed to get a honeymoon. When does my honeymoon start, you know, after my victory?

BLITZER: There's no such thing in politics, Dr. Paul.

PAUL: No such thing. I think you're right.

I think what troubles me is that the news cycle has gotten out of control. I mean for several hours on a major news network yesterday, they reported repeatedly that I was for repealing the Civil Rights Act.
That is not only not true, never been my position, but is an out and out lie and they repeated it all day long.

It started with my Democrat opponent asserting this, but has never been my position.

BLITZER: You support that -- because the argument was -- the argument was made that you support the Civil Rights Act in terms of federal -- in terms of government responsibility, there should be no racism or segregation. But if there's a private club or a restaurant where they don't want to serve African-Americans, as abhorrent as that is, you think that they have a ri -- you -- you suggested -- and correct me if I'm wrong -- they would have a right to do that.

PAUL: Well, what I did suggest was that it was a stain on the history of the South and of our country. But, you know, we desegregated in 1840 in Boston. William Lloyd Garrison was up there with Frederick Douglas being thrown off trains and going through what happened in the 1960s in 1840 in Boston.

So I think it is a stain on our history and something that I am sad for and something that, if I had been alive at the time, would hope that I would have been there marching with Martin Luther King.

One of our biggest county coordinators was there with Martin Luther King, attended the rallies in D.C. and considers himself to be a civil rights activist and he takes it as a personal insult that people will say that our movement doesn't believe in civil rights. So I think it's...

BLITZER: But I just want to be precise on this...

PAUL: -- politically motivated...

BLITZER: Dr. Paul, I just want to be precise, did Woolworth -- Woolworth, the department store, have a right, at their lunch counters, to segregate blacks and whites?

PAUL: I think that there was an overriding problem in the South so big that it did require federal intervention in the '60s. And it stems from things that I said, you know, had been going on, really, 120 years too long. And the Southern states weren't correcting it. And I think there was a need for federal intervention (INAUDIBLE).

BLITZER: All right. So you clarified. You would have voted yea.
You would have voted yes in favor of the 1964 Civil Rights Act.

PAUL: Yes.

Democrats felt good about the trade-off when Gov. Bill Ritter (D) decided not to seek re-election and Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper (D) then jumped into the race. But a new Public Policy Polling (D) survey (1,060 RVs, 5/14-16, MoE +/- 3%) finds the latter struggling in the face of an anti-Democratic environment.

General Election Matchup
Hickenlooper 44 (-6 vs. last poll, 3/5-8)
McInnis 44 (+5)
Und 12 (+1)

PPP's analysis:

It's not hard to pinpoint where voter perceptions of Hickenlooper are changing. Among people who voted for Barack Obama in 2008 his favorability is 75/9, virtually identical to the 76/10 he posted in March. But among McCain voters his net favorability has dropped 28 points, from a respectable 30/42 spread to now 18/58. Hickenlooper's run for statewide office as a Democrat seems to be costing him some of his crossover popularity with Republicans and conservative leaning independents.

RCP currently classifies the race as a Toss Up.

Coming off a high-profile, successful Democratic Senate primary against Arlen Specter, Pennsylvania Rep. Joe Sestak now finds himself leading Republican Pat Toomey in the general election, a new Rasmussen poll finds (May 19, 500 LV, MoE +/- 4.5%). On May 6, before both won their respective primaries Tuesday, Toomey held a 2-point lead.

Sestak 46
Toomey 42
Und 9

The post-primary bounce for Sestak is partly explained by his increasing support among Democrats, 80% of whom now back him (it was 64% two weeks ago). Toomey's support among Republicans did not change. Independents support Toomey by a 41%-32%.

Obama's approval rating is at 47%, with 52% disapproving.