No matter what ails them elsewhere, Democrats can rest easy it seems about races in New York State. A new Siena poll (905 RVs, 5/17-20, MoE +/- 3.3%) finds Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D) now over 50 percent against potential Republican opponents and with her best-ever favorable ratings. And in the gubernatorial race, Attorney General Andrew Cuomo (D) leads all potential foes by more than 40 points as he now officially has entered the contest.

Gubernatorial General Election Matchups
Cuomo 66 (+5) -- Lazio 24 (unch) -- Und 10 (-6)
Cuomo 65 (+7) -- Levy 22 (-1) -- Und 13 (-6)
Cuomo 65 (+1) -- Paladino 22 (+3) -- Und 13 (-3)

That governor's race does have an under-covered GOP primary battle shaping up, however. Former Rep. and 2000 Senate nominee Rick Lazio remains ahead as Democrat-turned-Republican hopeful Steve Levy has failed to gain any traction.

Republican Gubernatorial Primary Election Matchup
(328 RVs, MoE +/- 5.4%)
Lazio 29 (unch)
Paladino 16 (+3)
Levy 14 (-1)
Und 41 (-2)

The real fight is behind the scenes as some party leaders hope to force a primary contest by potentially changing the rules at the state party convention to lower the threshold needed to qualify. The general election contest is considered Safe Democrat on our gubernatorial map.

The Republican primary for Gillibrand's seat is a far greater tossup, with a whopping three-quarters of GOP voters unsure of their choice.

Republican Senate Primary Election Matchup
DioGuardi 15 (-9)
Blakeman 8 (+1)
Malpass 4 (-1)
Und 74 (+9)

Owing to that and an all-time best favorable rating (42 percent vs. 24 percent unfavorable), Gillibrand looks safe in the special election to keep the seat she was appointed to last year.

Senate General Election Matchups
Gillibrand 51 (+5) -- Blakeman 24 (-2) -- Und 25 (-3)
Gillibrand 51 (+5) -- DioGuardi 25 (-2) -- Und 27 (-3)
Gillibrand 53 (+7) -- Malpass 22 (-2) -- Und 25 (-5)

That race is rated as Likely Democrat on our Senate map.

Sen. Chuck Schumer (D), also up for re-election, is considered safe given he faces no major opposition. But one small measure of anti-incumbent sentiment: in a generic re-elect question, an all-time low of 52 percent say they'd vote to elect Schumer versus 35 percent say they'd back a someone else.

Martin Finucane of the Boston Globe notes an interesting little tidbit:

It was one of the more memorable quotes of the US Senate race last winter — Attorney General Martha Coakley defending her campaign tactics to the Globe by saying, “As opposed to standing outside Fenway Park? In the cold? Shaking hands?''

Coakley's response, it turns out, caught the attention of President Obama, and not in a good way.

Newsweek scribe Jonathan Alter, in his new book, “The Promise: President Obama, Year One,'' writes that when Obama aide David Axelrod told the president that Coakley had said those words, Obama reached out and grabbed his shirt.

“No! No! You're making that up! That can't be right! Tell me she didn't say that!'' the president said, tossing in a few obscenities, according to Alter's account, in which he calls Coakley's line “one of the great gaffes in modern American politics.''

Obviously, this is a somewhat ironic criticism coming from a President who has repeatedly mispronounced the home ballpark of his beloved White Sox and who drew a total blank when asked recently to name his favorite White Sox player.

David Frum says just saying 'no' won't win anything for the GOP, while Senator Tom Coburn writes that politicians should be saying 'no' more often: "The kind of change America wants is a more liberal use of the word "no" in our government. They want to hear politicians say no to deficit spending, no to earmarks, and no to policies that expand government rather than individual opportunity."

North Dakota Gov. John Hoeven takes nearly three-fourths of the vote in a new Senate poll by Rasmussen (May 18-19, 500 LV, MoE +/- 4.5%). Little has changed over the last several months in the race to replace retiring Democratic Sen. Byron Dorgan, as state Sen. Tracy Potter (D) struggles to take a quarter of the vote against the popular Republican governor.

Hoeven 72
Potter 23
Und 3

RCP rates this race Safe Republican.

Also, the state's lone representative in the House, Earl Pomeroy (D), who turned down the chance to take on Hoeven in the Senate race, now trails in his bid for re-election. His opponent, state Rep. Rick Berg (R) leads 52%-43%.

A new poll in Florida finds Gov. Charlie Crist and former House Speaker Marco Rubio locked in a tight battle for U.S. Senate, with Democrat Kendrick Meek still a dozen points off the pace. The "race remains volatile" as nearly one in four voters is undecided in the survey, conducted by Ipsos for St. Petersburg Times, Miami Herald and Bay News 9.

Senate General Election Matchup
Crist (I) 30
Rubio (R) 27
Meek (D) 15
Und 23

"For a governor who is leading one of the country's most economically ravaged states and who only a few weeks ago faced near-certain defeat against Rubio in the Aug. 24 GOP primary, Crist remains remarkably well-liked," the Times reports. His job rating is 52 percent approve, 38 percent disapprove. "The secret to Crist's success" is appeal across party lines -- 39 percent among independents, 38 percent among Democrats and 26 percent among Republicans. Still, there are warning signs: 47 percent called Crist's decision to abandon the GOP primary an "opportunistic decision.'

Meek's problems extend to his own primary: the poll shows him leading former Miami Mayor Maurice Ferre and new entrant Jeff Greene, but only with a third of the vote. More than 40 percent are undecided.

Senate Democratic Primary Election Matchup
Meek 33 -- Ferre 10 -- Greene 9

The survey of 607 registered voters was conducted May 14-18, and has a margin of error of +/- 4 percent.

After the jump, a look at the governor's race.

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As of yesterday, Republicans hadn't picked up a seat from Democrats in a special election since 2001.  That losing streak came to an end in the most unlikely of places, Hawaii's First Congressional District.  Charles Djou defeated a pair of Democrats in a winner-take-all election, taking 40% of the vote to their 31% and 28%.  President Barack Obama carried the district in 2008 with 70% of the vote.

But the district is historically somewhat competitive.  It has gone Republican in gubernatorial elections fairly routinely.  Al Gore got 55% of the vote, while John Kerry received 53% of the vote.   Rep. Neil Abercrombie faced a pair of competitive races in the mid-90s, and it was represented by a Republican in the late 1980s.  If you remove Barack Obama's election results, no doubt inflated by his "hometown hero" status, it is probably a D+5 or D+6 district.

This November, Democrats nevertheless have a good chance of taking the district back.  After all, the Democrats combined for 60% of the vote.  It's not a done deal -- after all, Djou will be an incumbent, and while the Democrats will not be splitting the vote, there's no guarantee that the Democrats' supporters will turn out.  Blue Dog Ed Case's supporters may not show up for the more liberal Colleen Hanabusa (or may vote Republican) if she is the nominee, while Hanabusa's supporters may not show up for Case if he wins the primary.  Still, Democrats would have to abandon ship in awfully high numbers for Djou to carry the day.

April fund raising for the RNC was down by 40% from March to $6.8 million. DNC fund raising was also down, but only by 24% to $10.4 million. After ou traising the DNC in January by $1.3 million and in February by just $300,000, Michael Steele's organization got out raised by $2.1 million in March and now $3.6 million in April. That's not the kind of trend that helps an individual make the case for keeping his or her job. (via First Read)

Maybe someone else has already pointed out the obvious culprit behind the rat running in front of President Obama's podium yesterday. It just has to be a diabolical plot by Karl Rove to remind people that you can't spell Democrat without the "rat."

We've seen this movie before, remember?

Clearly Rove must have been hiding in the bushes on the grassy knoll in the Rose Garden yesterday.....

On the heels of Pennsylvania's primary contests on Tuesday, RasmussenReports is out with a new poll of the Governor's race showing Republican nominee Tom Corbett with a comfortable 13-point lead over his Democratic opponent, Dan Onorato, which is a slight increase from his pre-primary lead of nine:

Corbett (R) 49
Onorato (D) 36
Undecided 10

RCP currently rates this race as Leans Republican which would make it a pick up for the GOP.

Daily Kos releases new numbers from Research 2000 on the big races in California, showing Democrats ahead for governor and Senate, and Republicans with tight primary races.

First, a look at the Senate races:

Republican Senate Primary Matchup
Campbell 37 (+4 vs. last poll, 3/8-10)
Fiorina 22 (-2)
DeVore 14 (+7)
Und 27 (-9)

General Election Matchups
Boxer 47 (unch) -- Campbell 40 (-3)
Boxer 48 (-1) -- Fiorina 39 (-1)
Boxer 47 (-2) -- DeVore 38 (-1)

RCP calls this race a Toss Up.

After the jump, the gubernatorial race -- including a big jump for Steve Poizner in the GOP primary.
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