CA Gov Poll: Brown Leads Whitman, Poizner
Posted by Mike Memoli | Email This | Permalink | Email Author
The latest Rasmussen poll from California (500 LVs, 5/24, MoE +/- 4.5%) shows Attorney General and former Gov. Jerry Brown (D) leading both potential general election matchups, though both contests are tight.
General Election Matchups
Brown 45 (+1 vs. last poll, 4/19)
Whitman 41 (+3)
Und 7 (-2)
Brown 43 (-7)
Poizner 42 (+10)
Und 8
The surge from Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner comes after he's blitzed the airwaves targeting his GOP rival, former eBay executive Meg Whitman. Both are focused on their June 8 primary contest; Rasmussen has not polled that race.
RCP classifies the race as a Toss Up.
MN Gov Poll: Emmer Leads In Close Matchups
Posted by Mike Memoli | Email This | Permalink | Email Author
A new Rasmussen poll in Minnesota (500 LVs, 5/24, MoE +/- 4.5%) finds state Rep. Tom Emmer (R) leading all three potential Democratic opponents.
General Election Matchups
Emmer (R) 37 -- Dayton (D) 35 -- Horner (I) 12 -- Und 16
Emmer (R) 38 -- Killiher (D) 26 -- Horner (I) 11 -- Und 15
Emmer (R) 37 -- Entenza (D) 34 -- Horner (I) 12 -- Und 17
Former Sen. Mark Dayton led Emmer 38-35 in a March Rasmussen survey.
Outgoing Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R) has a 53 percent job approval rating in the state, Rasmussen also finds. But if he were to be the GOP nominee for president in 2012, only 35 percent say they would vote for hi, while 49 percent say they would not. President Obama has a nearly identical job rating -- 52 percent approve, 46 percent disapprove.
SC Gov Poll: Democrats Competitive
Posted by Kyle Trygstad | Email This | Permalink | Email Author
A new PPP poll finds competitive potential gubernatorial general election matchups in South Carolina, with party primaries coming up June 8. Republicans have the slight upper hand, but the Democrats appear competitive -- at least in May, with neither nominee yet known.
In its primary polls released yesterday, PPP found Republican Nikki Haley and Democrat Vince Sheheen, both state senators, ahead of the packs. But today's poll finds Haley leads Sheheen by 10 points, and Democrat Jim Rex outpolling Sheheen against the Republicans.
Other Republicans tested: Henry McMaster, Gresham Barrett, Andre Bauer.
General Election matchups
Haley (R) 44 - Sheheen (D) 34
Haley (R) 45 - Rex (D) 36
Bauer (R) 38 - Sheheen (D) 38
Bauer (R) 38 - Rex (D) 40
Barrett (R) 43 - Sheheen (D) 33
Barrett (R) 38 - Rex (D) 36
McMaster (R) 43 - Sheheen (D) 36
McMaster (R) 42 - Rex (D) 36
(May 22-23, 1255 RV, MoE +/- 2.8%)
Biden's "Blumenthal Mistake"
Posted by Mike Memoli | Email This | Permalink | Email Author
"I have a bad habit of saying exactly what I think."
That's what Vice President Joe Biden said last night after making a Biden-esque comment about military service during an event at his home honoring wounded warriors. The butt of his joke? Connecticut Attorney General Richard Blumenthal, who's only begun to dig out of the hole he dug himself in after admitting he occasionally "misspoke" about military service in Vietnam.
While praising the soldiers he was hosting last night, Biden talked about the experience of troops returning from Vietnam. That's where he stepped in it:
"I didn't serve in Vietnam. I don't want to make a Blumenthal mistake here. Our attorney general from Connecticut, God love him."
No doubt his friends in Connecticut didn't appreciate it.
MA Gov Poll: Patrick +13
Posted by Kyle Trygstad | Email This | Permalink | Email Author
Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick leads his closest re-election opponent by 13 points in the latest Suffolk poll (May 20-23, 500 RV, MoE +/- 4.4%). Patrick leads a crowded general election field, including Republican Charlie Baker, independent Tim Cahill and Green Party candidate Jill Stein.
Patrick (D) 42
Baker (R) 29
Cahill (I) 14
Stein (G) 8
Undecided 7
The results were close to those in a Rasmussen poll released two weeks ago.
Support for Cahill has dropped 9 points since the last Suffolk poll in February, and Suffolk polling director David Paleologos says it's "been a clear net positive for Gov. Patrick."
NV Sen: Lowden Gets Club-bed In TV Ad
Posted by Kyle Trygstad | Email This | Permalink | Email Author
The Club for Growth, which endorsed Nevada Republican Sharron Angle last week, is now airing a TV ad aimed at GOP Senate primary frontrunner Sue Lowden. Angle is backed by tea party groups and recently made major gains in primary polling.
"Sharron Angle's Nevada's leading fiscal conservative: a common sense fighter, always working to cut taxes for Nevada families, and reduce government spending," the ad's announcer says. "And Sue Lowden? She voted to raise taxes, supported huge spending increases, and backed Harry Reid for years."
The primary is June 8.
On Politics Nation, Mike Memoli writes about the competitive primary and general election Senate and Governor races in California.
On RCP, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie outlines his reform agenda. Also, Dr. Hal Scherz criticizes Donald Berwick, President Obama's nominee to head HHS's Center for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS).
Check out RCW for a list of the Top 5 Pro-American Countries. Created with Gallup, this is the first installment in a monthly series of "Global Top 5" lists.
Finally, on RCM, Peter Morici warns that America is not safe from the problems facing Greece and Spain, and Steven Malanga writes about the difficulty of measuring the productivity of government.
Rossi To Announce In Online Video
Posted by Kyle Trygstad | Email This | Permalink | Email Author
Republican Dino Rossi will announce his Washington Senate candidacy at 7 a.m. PT today in a video on his campaign web site, the Seattle Times reports. There will be no press conference or interviews until tomorrow.
As a two-time gubernatorial candidate with a proven ability to raise money, Rossi enters the race as the frontrunner, despite a handful of others already running. The Times reports former Washington Redskin Clint Didier and state Sen. Don Benton "have vowed to remain in the race."
The target for all three Republicans is three-term Democrat Patty Murray, a member of Senate leadership. She led Rossi by 4 points in a poll out yesterday, but her support was well below 50 percent -- not a good sign for an 18-year incumbent.
UPDATE: Rossi's web site is now live. Watch his announcement video here.
Quinnipiac: Obama Job Approval Ticks Up to 48
Posted by Tom Bevan | Email This | Permalink | Email Author
Quinnipiac is out with a new national survey showing President Obama's job approval rating rebounding slightly over the past month. Last month Obama's approval was under water at 44-46, in the current poll his job rating is back in positive territory with 48 percent approving of the job he's doing, and 43 percent disapproving.
As you'd expect, Obama's approval ratings across specific issues have also improved slightly:
Economy 44/50 (40/55 on April 21)
Health Care 44/51 (40/55)
Foreign Policy 48/43 (48/42)
Creating Jobs 40/51 (38/56)
Afghanistan 45/40 (49/39)
Handling Terrorism 49/41 (49/41)
The improvement in Obama's job approval in the Quinnipiac poll is the exact opposite of what we saw in the CBS News poll released last night, which showed Obama losing a net of 8-points in his job approval rating, dropping from 51/39 to 47/43. Overall, Obama's job approval stands at 47.0% in the RCP Average.
Perhaps the bigger news in the Quinnipiac poll is the rebound for the President's party in the generic ballot test. Two months ago Quinnipiac showed Republicans leading Democrats by five points, 44 to 39. In the current survey, however, Democrats have jumped back in front by six points, mostly due to a drop in support for the GOP:
Democrats 42 (+3 vs. last poll March 21)
Republicans 36 (-8)
The public continues to be in a sour mood, with 7 out of 10 voters saying they are either "somewhat" or "very" dissatisfied with the way things are going in the country. Only 41% approve of the federal health care overhaul, with 51% disapproving. Those numbers are only a very slight improvement from last month's readings of 39/53.
Lastly, 48% approve of Obama's nomination of Elena Kagan to the Supreme Court, while 30% disapprove.
The survey was conducted May 19 - 24, among 1,914 registered voters nationwide with a margin of error of +/- 2.2 percentage points.
CA Poll: Fiorina, Whitman Up Big Again
Posted by Kyle Trygstad | Email This | Permalink | Email Author
California Republican Carly Fiorina finds herself up 20 points in yet another poll out today. In the Senate primary, set for June 8, a new PPP poll finds Fiorina way out in front of both Tom Campbell and Chuck DeVore -- a sign that her TV advertising is paying off.
Fiorina 41
Campbell 21
DeVore 16
Und 18
Fiorina led Campbell 46-23% in a SurveyUSA poll out earlier today.
In the governor's race, Republican Meg Whitman leads primary opponent Steve Poizner by an even larger margin.
Whitman 51
Poizner 26
Other 11
Und 12
Whitman led by a similar margin in the SurveyUSA poll as well.

