The Democratic primary for Senate in Pennsylvania has narrowed as the campaign enters the final two weeks. Muhlenberg College is now conducting a daily tracking poll through the May 18 contest, and its first offering (408 LVs, 4/28-5/1, MoE +/- 5%) shows Sen. Arlen Specter (D) with a 6-point advantage over Rep. Joe Sestak (D).

Senate Primary Election Matchup
Specter 48
Sestak 42
Und 11

In the gubernatorial primary, Allegheny County Executive Dan Onorato has a sizable advantage in what has been a very low-profile contest.

Gubernatorial Primary Election Matchup
Onorato 41
Williams 8
Hoeffel 6
Wagner 5
Und 40

With voting open through May 22, Honolulu City Councilman Charles Djou (R) leads the two Democrats vying to hold on to the vacant Democratic 1st District House seat, according to a Honolulu Advertiser poll (April 23-28, 349 LV, MoE +/- 5.2%). Former Rep. Ed Case (D) and state Sen. Colleen Hanabusa (D) appear to be, as many Democrats feared, splitting the Dem vote.

Djou 36
Case 28
Hanabusa 22

Mike Memoli previews the week ahead in politics, including the Senate primaries taking place in Indiana, North Carolina and Ohio on Tuesday.

On the Media Watch blog, Doug Clawson recounts the Louisville Courier-Journal's printing press troubles on the night of the Kentucky Derby.

Writing on Forbes.com, RCM Editor John Tamny argues that thanks to Americans' entrepreneurial nature, the U.S. is not going to end up like Europe.

On RCS, Jeff Neuman writes that a new generation of golfers are poised to challenge the supremacy of a struggling Tiger Woods.

Finally, check out RCW for the latest British election polling data. The current RCP average shows the Conservatives +7.1.

Both parties have tough battles for their respective nominations in the Kentucky Senate race. But the GOP battle between Rand Paul and Trey Grayson has grabbed most of the headlines, and a new Rasmussen poll (500 LVs, 4/28, MoE +/- 4.5%) of the general election suggests Democrats may be gaining.

General Election Matchups
Grayson 45 (-8 vs. last poll, 3/31)
Mongiardo 31 (-2)
Und 13 (+4)

Paul 48 (-4)
Mongiardo 32 (-5)
Und 12 (+4)

Grayson 43 (-9)
Conway 38 (+6)
Und 12 (+1)

Paul 47 (-3)
Conway 38 (+2)
Und 10 (-1)

The races may have tightened, but the landscape still doesn't favor the Democrats. Only 41 percent of Kentuckyans approve of President Obama's job performance, while 59 percent disapprove. Sixty percent favor an effort to repeal health care legislation.

RCP classifies the race as Likely Republican.

Public Policy Polling (D) has released new numbers (5/1-2, 802 LVs, MoE +/- 3.5%) on the eve of the Democratic primary for Senate in North Carolina, finding that Secretary of State Elaine Marshall is inching closer to, but still shy of, the required 40 percent needed to avoid a runoff.

Primary Election Matchup
Marshall 28 (+2 vs. last poll, 4/24-26)
Cunningham 21 (-2)
Lewis 9 (+2)
Harris 2 (-1)
Other 7 (unch)
Und 33 (-1)

Marshall's edge could be attributed largely to name ID -- she generates far more response when voters are asked if the view her favorably or unfavorably. But slightly more voters say they've heard more about Cunningham than Marshall during the course of the campaign.

Roughly three-in-five voters say they are solidly committed to their current choice, while 39 percent say they could change their mind. If enough undecideds break Marshall's way, she could win the primary outright -- 40 percent is needed to avoid a runoff. In a potential Marshall-Cunningham runoff, Marshall still comes out ahead.

Hypothetical Primary Runoff Matchup
Marshall 43 -- Cunningham 32 -- Und 25

Sen. Richard Burr (R) is waiting in the wings. RCP currently classifies the race as Lean Republican.

With one day left until the Ohio Senate Democratic primary, Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher has pulled out to a 20-point lead against Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner. The new Quinnipiac survey (April 28-May 2, 980 Dem LV, MoE +/- 3.1%) finds a third of Democrats still undecided.

"Lt. Gov. Fisher started the campaign better known and raised more money to keep him better known and able to get out his message. On the eve of the primary, he is in very strong shape to win," said Quinnnipiac assistant director Peter A. Brown. "Ms. Brunner would need to hold all of those who say they are voting for her and win most of the undecided voters in order to prevail."

Fisher 43
Brunner 23
Und 32

Perhaps fueling Brunner's low support: Two-thirds of voters said they hadn't yet heard enough about her to decide whether they have a favorable opinion of her or not. Just 45% said the same about Fisher. Still, just 53% of voters said their mind is made up on who to vote for, while 44% say they might change their mind.