Former Senator Dan Coats fought off a tougher-than-expected primary challenge from farmer and state Senator Marlin Stutzman to emerge with the Republican nomination in the race to replace retiring Democratic Senator Evan Bayh (who in turn replaced a retiring Coats back in 1998).  Coats received 41% to Stutzman's 32%, with other candidates, including former Congressman John Hostettler, splitting the remaining 27%.  Congressman Brad Ellsworth will receive the Democrats' nomination at a convention later this month.

In the battle for Congress, most everything went as expected.  Perenially underachieving Third District Congressman Mark Souder received a surprisingly poor 48 percent of the vote in his race, but most other Congressmen were re-nominated easily.  There are still  several  counties outstanding and several close races to call, but one race is of particular note:  It looks like former Congressman Mike Sodrel won't get a fifth try against Rep. Baron Hill.  As of this writing there are still counties outstanding, but it looks like conservative activist Travis Hankins will be the GOP  standard-bearer.

UPDATE:  Wow.  As of this writing, Kristi Risk, a tea party activist who has raised $26,000, defeated the GOP's preferred candidate who raised $250,000.  Looking at these numbers, I'm pretty sure that Stutzman would have defeated Coats in a head-to-head matchup.  There's something really big going on out there.

The AP has called the Democratic Senate primary in Ohio for Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher. At just past 10 pm Eastern, Fisher led Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner 55.5 to 44.5. He will face former Rep. Rob Portman (R) in November's race to succeed retiring Republican George Voinovich.

It had long been a tight race between the establishment-backed Fisher and the woefully underfunded Brunner. But late polling showed Fisher opening up a significant lead -- somewhat larger than the final result.

Both of the gubernatorial primaries were uncontested. Gov. Ted Strickland (D) seeks a second term against former Rep. John Kasich. Strickland used primary day to launch his first television ad of the race. Rather than touting his record, the spot slams Kasich for votes in Congress and then his time at Lehman Brothers.

Today's primary in Ohio, as in Indiana and North Carolina, was a very low-turnout affair.

The top two finishers in the North Carolina Democratic Senate primary are headed to a June 22 runoff to decide who faces Republican Sen. Richard Burr in the general election. The AP called the race shortly before 10 p.m. with Secretary of State Elaine Marshall leading with 37% of the vote -- 3 points shy of the 40% necessary to win the primary outright.

Finishing second and now facing Marshall in the runoff is former state Sen. Cal Cunningham, who had 27% of the vote with 72 of the state's 100 counties reporting their results. Attorney Ken Lewis had 17%.

Cunningham should perhaps thank the larger-than-expected take of the other three Democrats in the race -- Marcus Williams, Ann Worthy and Susan Harris. They combined to win 19%, some of which Marshall could have used to put her over the hump.

The result is still somewhat of a win for Marshall, who was shunned by the national party in favor of Cunningham, as well as several other higher profile
Democrats who opted against running.

Whoever wins the primary will have a difficult race on their hands against the incumbent Burr. Republicans will surely tie them to the unpopular Democratic leaders who currently are in charge of Congress.

"No matter who ultimately wins the Democrat nomination, the contrast in this campaign will be clear for North Carolina voters on Election Day," said NRSC Chairman John Cornyn. "Both Cunningham and Marshall have clearly stated that they will serve as another rubberstamp for President Obama and Harry Reid's deeply unpopular agenda if elected to the U.S. Senate."

Still, President Obama in 2008 became the first Democrat to win the state since 1976. If Democrats can find a way to motivate the base, especially African American voters who made up 23% of the electorate in 2008, this could be one Senate race Dems picks up in what appears to be a bad year for the party.

Sorry for the absence yesterday, I was dealing with a sick two year old.  Mind you, when I was two, I always listened and understood "Daddy's working" and didn't come back to yank on the laptop every 15 seconds.  I'm sure of it.  Really.

At any rate, it's primary day in Indiana, North Carolina and Ohio!  All three states host some marquee matchups, including Senate primaries and several competitive House primaries.  We've got some polling that should shed some light on these races.

Senate

North Carolina Primary – PPP (D) shows that undecided is still the big winner in the Democratic primary race to take on Republican Senator Richard Burr in November.  Elaine Marshall leads Cal Cunningham 28%-21% on Election Day.  "Undecided" hasn't gotten less than 40% of the vote in any ballot test so far this year.

Personally I think that just spells incredibly low turnout, and there's a reasonable chance that Marshall or Cunningham will end up with a majority, thereby avoiding a runoff.

Ohio Primary – Lee Fisher continues to open  a lead over Jennifer Brunner in the Democratic primary; he's led by double digits in almost all of the recent polling.  It would be quite the upset if Brunner emerged victorious tonight.  Fisher leads Brunner by 19 points in the RCP average.

Pennsylvania Primary – Arlen Specter's lead in the Morning Call/Muhlenberg College poll continues to shrink.  Admiral/Congressman Joe Sestak has whittled it down to four points, with two weeks left to go.  Quinnipiac has his lead at 8%, down from a 21-point lead a month ago.  This race has suddenly gotten very interesting, and Specter leads by only 7 in the RCP Average.

(more...)

Rep. Roy Blunt (R) has reached 50 percent for the first time in Rasmussen's latest poll of the Missouri Senate race (500 LVs, 5/3, MoE +/- 4.5%)

General Election Matchup
Blunt (R) 50 (+3 vs. last poll, 3/9)
Carnahan (D) 42 (+1)
Und 4 (-4)

Blunt currently leads in the RCP average by 3 points.

RCP classifies the race as a Toss Up.

Without choosing a specific candidate, President Obama lends his voice to a new robo-call running in his home district urging voters to back a Democrat in the upcoming special election in Hawaii-01.

The Honolulu Advertiser reports:

Obama recorded a telephone message for voters describing the special election in urban Honolulu's 1st Congressional District as "crucial for us to continue pushing forward our agenda for change.

"I need a Democrat that will support my agenda in Congress," the president said in a message expected to be released today. "I need someone that will hold Wall Street and the big special interests accountable."

The story also notes continuing tension between local Democrats who support Colleen Hanabusa and national Democrats lining up behind Ed Case. The two Democrats appear on the ballot together with a Republican, Charles Djou, leading many to worry the Democratic divide will lead to a GOP upset in the heavily-Democratic seat.

RCP spoke recently with Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell (D), touching on the big races in his state, the state of the Democratic party nationally, even a little sports. We also asked about his future once his term as governor comes to an end next January. Rendell said he plans to teach more, continue his work as an Eagles post-game show host and write his memoirs. But what about a post in the Obama administration? Would the one-time DNC chair consider, say, the chief of staff job should Rahm Emanuel leave to run for mayor of Chicago?

"Well sure," Rendell said, "but I think that the Obama team – which I have the greatest respect for – is not about to hire a free spirit like myself. So I don't think there's a snowball's chance in hell."

He added the caveat that he would of course consider an invitation to serve from the president of the United States, and that he would always do what he can to help the administration.

"I believe that government can and should be a force for improving the quality of people's lives. And I'm going to spend the rest of my life continuing to push that message," he said.

You can read the full transcript of the interview here.

Florida Gov. Charlie Crist leads Republican Marco Rubio and Democrat Kendrick Meek in a three-way Senate race, a new Rasmussen poll finds (May 3, 500 LV, MoE +/- 4.5%). Down big in the polls, Crist left the Republican primary last week to run for Senate as an independent.

Crist (I) 38 (+8 vs. last poll, April 22)
Rubio (R) 34 (-3)
Meek (D) 17 (-5)
Und 11

The poll shows Crist picking up some support since a poll taken two weeks ago, prior to his announced switch. With Crist's move from the GOP, RCP now ranks this race as a Toss Up.

One of the most interesting yet underplayed stories of the last twelve months is the surprisingly smooth ride of New York Senator Kirsten Gillibrand.  An unlikely pick to replace Hillary Clinton who was also the victim of an utterly botched selection process by Governor Paterson, Gillibrand was immediately singled out as likely being vulnerable to a primary challenge coming from the left and out of the NYC political base.  But the challenge never materialized from the left, and Gillibrand had little trouble holding off Harold Ford's attempt to inject himself into the Democratic primary as an "independent" voice.

Similarly, despite the Empire State's deep blue make up, given the current political climate Republicans had been licking their chops at the prospect of fielding a quality candidate and knocking off Gillibrand - hopes that only heightened after Scott Brown's improbable win in Massachusetts in late January.  Almost four months later, however, Republicans are no closer to taking Gillibrand down, having watched a number of high profile prospects  - including Rudy Giuliani, George Pataki, and Pete King - opt out of challenging her.

Instead, the Republican field is currently composed of three less than formidable candidates: lawyer Bruce Blakeman, CPA and former Congressman Joe DioGuardi, and economist David Malpass. There's no polling yet on DioGuardi or Malpass, but according to the latest Quinnipiac and Siena polls in in New York, Blakeman is unknown to 85-87% of voters and loses to Gillibrand by a whopping 22 points and 20 points, respectively.

However, there are two alarming numbers for Gillibrand which could foreshadow a rougher ride for her in the months ahead. First, she's polling below 50% in both the Quinnipiac and Siena surveys, never a good sign for an incumbent but not terribly worrying given the current political environment and the fact that she also remains unknown to a good sized chunk of the electorate after only 15 months in office.

Second, and clearly most problematic, in the Siena poll only 27% said they would vote to reelect Gillibrand (her lowest rating in a year), while 40% said they would "prefer someone else" and another third of voters were undecided.

A survey conducted by Southern Media & Opinion Research, and paid for by a conservative businessman who has previously donated money to Sen. David Vitter (R), found Vitter leading Democratic Rep. Charlie Melancon by 18 points.

Vitter 49
Melancon 31
Und 20

The survey was conducted April 19-23 of 600 LV with a MoE of +/- 4%.