The Washington Post has announced its putting Newsweek up for sale. The the 77-year old weekly underwent a radical makeover last year, in which editor Jon Meacham shifted the focus from news to more opinion and analysis for a more upscale (i.e. liberal) audience. Obviously, the Washington Post Co. isn't terribly bullish on the long-term prospects of success for the redesigned mag.

UPDATE: Jon Meacham says he's going to "take a look" at rounding up a group of investors to buy the magazine.

Rep. David Obey (WI-07), the powerful chairman of the House Appropriations Committee, will not seek re-election, AP is reporting.

Obey was first elected in a 1969 special election to replace President Nixon's pick for Secretary of Defense, and has generally voted a liberal line since then (he's also generally been elected with about 60-65% of the vote, with dips in 1994 and 1996).  This year he faced an unusually strong challenge from Sean Duffy, a young district attorney from Ashland County and former Real World Boston contestant (he is married to fellow Real World alum Rachel, from the season where Puck made Pedro's life miserable).

RCP added the race as "Leans Democrat" in April, reflecting the increasingly uphill battle the Congressman was facing.    Shortly afterward, the New York Times interviewed the Congressman as part of an article on long-time incumbents facing tough re-election battles, and the 71-year old Obey clearly did not seem to relish the fight ahead.  While it's impossible to read minds, it is difficult to imagine that the tough challenger coupled with the overall political environment did not play a role.

The district is D+3, so Democrats certainly have a good shot at retaining the district, but in a year like this one is shaping up to be, it will not be an easy race by any stretch.  The Wisconsin filing deadline isn't until July, so Democrats will have plenty of time to select a replacement.

Public Policy Polling (D) (946 RVs, 5/1-2, MoE +/- 3.2%) finds that the open-seat Kentucky Senate race is potentially close, though neither Republican trails either Democrat.

General Election Matchups
Grayson (R) 42 (+2 vs. last poll, 12/18-21)
Conway (D) 34 (+1)
Und 24

Grayson (R) 43 (+1)
Mongiardo (D) 35 (unch)
Und 22

Paul (R) 41 (-1)
Conway (D) 40 (+4)
Und 19

Paul (R) 42 (unch)
Mongiardo (D) 38 (+2)
Und 19

RCP classifies the race as Likely Republican.

PPP points out that the leaders in polls of the respective primaries -- Rand Paul and Dan Mongiardo -- run somewhat worse in the general election matchups. Attorney General Jack Conway is just a point behind Paul. Results of the primary polls after the jump.

(more...)

Exactly when the Latino giant will make landfall in Texas politics remains a guessing game. Texas watchers  agree it will happen this decade and in a big way. The state's red-to-purple politics are destined to turn decidedly bluer.

Now a wild card has been thrown on the table — Arizona's strict new immigration law. Will it spur a surge of Hispanic voters to the polls this Nov. 2?

If that happens, the consequences for national politics could be major.

Texas is expected to gain three or four U.S. House seats following completion of the 2010 Census. The governor and state legislature influence the drawing of congressional districts, which in Texas is never a non-partisan affair. Republicans led by then U.S. Rep. Tom Delay oversaw an especially messy redistricting in 2003.

Suppose the popular former mayor of Houston, Democrat Bill White, unseats incumbent Republican Rick Perry as governor. And suppose Democrats retake the state House of Representatives. (The state Senate is considered safely Republican for now.)

That could happen. Perry's lead over White has narrowed to 4 percent, according to the most recent polls.  And the Republican majority in the Texas House is only 4 seats, whittled down from 26 seats after the 2002 election.

Over the near long term, the prognosis for Republicans retaining their dominance in Texas looks grim. And there's not much they can do about it.

Republicans can hope that Hispanic turnout remains low and that they can continue to lure more Latinos out of the Democratic fold — which they've succeeded in doing over the last three decades.  But as Bob Stein, veteran analyst of Texas politics at Rice University, explains, the demographics overwhelmingly favor Democrats.

Since 1979, Latino support for Democrats in Texas has fallen on average from 75 percent to 60 percent. These Republican gains, however, are being swamped by the explosive growth in the state's Latino population: The number of Hispanics in Texas now stands at 10 million, more than triple that of three decades ago.

“The Democrats can afford to lose a significant percentage of the vote and still gain on the base,” Stein told me. “Elections are determined by how many votes you get.”

And that base continues to grow. Texas became less than half Anglo (non-Hispanic white) in 2003 with more dramatic changes to come.

Steve Murdock, a former Texas state demographer who also headed the U.S. Census Bureau, shared these projections: By 2040, the state's Latino population will account for  between 52 and 59 percent of the total. Only a quarter to a third of Texans will be Anglo, and under 20 percent will be black and Asian.

“Now the big story will be the Arizona law,” Stein adds. “The word I hear is that the President considers Bill White's election in Texas the most important, given the Census.”

Perry, meanwhile, has distanced himself from the Arizona law.

Whether the Latino giant awakes in Texas this year is still to be seen. But the last thing Republicans needed was for anyone to poke at it.

Also posted on the www.fromaharrop.com

Rick Santorum pens a deeply personal op-ed this morning about his daughter. Very much worth the time.

Writing on RCP, former New York City Mayor Ed Koch argues that our porous border with Mexico will lead to a never-ending cycle of "amnesty" legislation for illegal immigrants. Also on RCP, Cathy Young contends that Russian outrage over the actions of a Tennessee woman who sent her adopted child back to Russia has more to do with "nationalism" than with concern for children.

On Politics Nation, Kyle Trygstad and Mike Memoli recap the Indiana, Ohio and North Carolina Senate primaries and look ahead to the general election races.

On the Media Watch blog, Doug Clawson is skeptical that NBC can keep MSNBC's overt left-wing identity from hurting the credibility of the rest of the network's news division.

On RCM, Steven Malanga wonders whether the early 1990s push toward "market-oriented" government will make a comeback in New York City.

On RCS, Art Spander praises the Phoenix Suns' decision to protest the new Arizona illegal immigration law.

Finally, check out RCW's live British election blog throughout the day on Thursday for the latest developments in the UK.

Pivoting immediately to the general election, the DSCC this morning previews its line of attack against Republican nominees for Senate in Ohio and Indiana in a new Web video that highlights their Wall Street connections.

"President Obama and Democrats in Congress are fighting for comprehensive financial reform. Meanwhile, what did the Republicans do? They nominated a Wall Street lobbyist and one of the biggest Wall Street cheerleaders they could find," the video begins.

The spot describes Indiana nominee Dan Coats a "registered Wall Street lobbyist whose clients included Goldman Sachs and Merrill Lynch." It then features a dated clip showing Portman, from the North Lawn of the White House, saying of a Wall Street downturn, "I really don't see it."

"These are the guys that Republicans want to send for Washington?" the announcer asks.

The video is just the latest sign of how Democrats intend to use the battle over financial reform to their advantage this November.

Both Colorado Sen. Michael Bennet and his Democratic primary challenger Andrew Romanoff trail all three Republicans looking to pick up the Senate seat for the GOP, a new Rasmussen poll finds. Former Lt. Gov. Jane Norton is considered the frontrunner for the GOP nomination, but she'll first need to get past county district attorney Ken Buck and former state Sen. Tom Wiens. The Dem and GOP primaries take place Aug. 10.

Norton 48 - Bennet 41 - Und 6

Norton 46 - Romanoff 39 - Und 8

Buck 48 - Bennet 41 - Und 7

Buck 45 - Romanoff 40 - Und 11

Wiens 44 - Bennet 42 - Und 9

Wiens 45 - Romanoff 40 - Und 11

RCP currently rates Colorado as a Toss Up.

The Muhlenberg College tracking poll today (405 LVs, 5/1-4, MoE +/- 5%) has Sen. Arlen Specter doubling his lead from yesterday over Rep. Joe Sestak in the Democratic primary.

Senate Primary Election Matchup
Specter 48 (+2)
Sestak 40 (-2)
Und 11

In the gubernatorial race, Allegheny County Executive Dan Onorato continues to slide but maintains a huge lead.

Gubernatorial Primary Election Matchup
Onorato 34 (-2)
Hoeffel 11 (+2)
Williams 9 (unch)
Wagner 8 (unch)
Und 37 (-1)

Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush took a shot at current Gov. Charlie Crist in an endorsement of Crist's Senate opponent, Republican Marco Rubio.

"With Marco, what you see is what you get," Bush said in a statement released by the Rubio campaign. "You can trust him to look you in the eye and tell you where he stands. And most of all, you can trust that his principles will not change every time the political winds shift direction."

Facing daunting GOP primary polling numbers, Crist left the Republican Party last week to run for Senate as an independent. So far the move is working out for him, as a new poll out yesterday found Crist leading both Rubio and Democrat Kendrick Meek in the three-way general election contest.

In his statement, Bush seemed to tie Crist and Meek together as rubber stamps for the Obama administration.

"I hope all Floridians will ask themselves whether they want their next Senator to be a rubber stamp for the Obama agenda, or to stand up to it and offer a clear conservative alternative," he said.