Rand Paul is out to a 12-point lead in the Kentucky Senate Republican Primary, a new Kentucky Poll finds. Paul leads establishment-backed Secretary of State Trey Grayson, who just received an endorsement from Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky.

Meanwhile, Paul just got the backing of South Carolina Sen. Jim DeMint, who has been endorsing Senate candidates across the country that don't have the backing of the national party.

Paul 44
Grayson 32
Stephenson 3
Martin 3
Scribner 1
Und 17

In the Dem race, Lt. Gov. Daniel Mongiardo holds a 7-point lead over Attorney General Jack Conway. Combining to take 12% of the vote are Darlene Price, Jack Buckmaster and Maurice Sweeney.

Mongiardo 39
Conway 32
Price 6
Buckmaster 4
Sweeney 2
Und 17

The primaries will be held May 18. Click here for more polling in the Dem and GOP primaries in Kentucky. RCP currently rates the open Kentucky seat race as Likely GOP.

The survey was conducted by Research 2000, May 2-4 of 600 LV with a MoE of +/- 4%.

Today's offering from Muhlenberg College (406 LVs, 5/2-5, MoE +/- 5%) shows the Democratic Senate primary in Pennsylvania continuing to fluctuate.

Senate Primary Election Matchup
Specter 45 (-3)
Sestak 40 (unch)
Und 14 (+3)

In the gubernatorial race, former Rep. joe Hoeffel, the 2004 Democratic nominee against Arlen Specter, is slowly emerging from the pack of challengers. But Allegheny County Executive Dan Onorato is still the runway leader at this point.

Gubernatorial Primary Election Matchup
Onorato 34 (unch)
Hoeffel 12 (+1)
Wagner 9 (+1)
Williams 8 (-1)
Und 39 (+2)

Dare we call this an effort to put lipstick on a pig? Or perhaps, more accurately, lipstick on a pitbull.

Clearly stung by charges that Keith Olbermann is an over-the-top ideological bomb thrower (a charge made by MSNBC's own Donny Deutsch, incidentally), MSNBC has launched a makeover of Olbermann with three promos featuring the host himself speaking directly to camera selling viewers on the virtues of his show.

Olbermann tells viewers his show is meant to "illuminate" not to "throw off heat" and that it means to "add to your knowledge" of a given subject. Olbermann also tries to take the edge off his "Worst Persons in the World" feature, saying it's not meant to be a mean-spirited ad hominem thing, but rather an effort to "blow raspberries" at people in the spirit of an old George Carlin joke.

Watch all three promos here.

It's election day in Britain. Check out RCW's live blog for continuing coverage.

On RCP, Victor Davis Hanson writes about the increase in Afghanistan and Iraq war veterans running for political office, and Larry Kudlow argues that the debt crisis facing Europe should serve as a lesson to the Obama administration.

Mike Memoli writes on Politics Nation about Sen. Jim DeMint's support for Senate candidates who, in several cases, aren't supported by the National Republican Senatorial Committee.

On RCM, John Tamny points out that oil is "expensive" today because the dollar is cheap, and Michael Pento details the similarities between the subprime mortgage crisis and the impending collapse of the U.S. bond market.

Finally, Jeff Neuman, writing on RCS, says that after 40 years of remembering Willis Reed's legendary appearance in Game 7 of the 1970 NBA Finals, it's time for the New York Knicks to move on.

Senate

Pennsylvania Primary:  The Muhlenberg College tracking poll finds Arlen Specter's lead over Joe Sestak ballooning to eight points again, after narrowing the past few days.  48%-40% isn't a terribly impressive number for an incumbent, but it should get the job done if it holds.  Specter leads by 8 points in the RCP Average.

Kentucky:  According to PPP (D), Rand Paul and Lt. Gov. Dan Mongiardo are the favorites to win their respective parties' nominations in two weeks.  A Paul/Mongiardo race shows Paul ahead by four points, 42%-38%, a slight tightening from before.  Both Paul and Mongiardo have net-negative favorables, and are far less popular than the candidates they are slated to defeat in their primaries.   But President Obama has a 37% approval rating in the state; it is difficult to imagine it sending a Democrat to the Senate in those circumstances.  Paul leads Mongiardo by 9.6 points in the RCP Average.

Colorado:  Rasmussen shows former Lt. Gov. Jane Norton holding consistent leads over her potential Democratic opponents of about six or seven points.  That's not awe-inspiring, but it's statistically significant at about 85% confidence.  A near-majority of the state strongly disapproves of the job Barack Obama is doing, and 60% favor repealing the health care bill.  Neither Democrat -- Bennett nor Romanoff -- has ever polled above 42% in Rasmussen, which isn't a particularly good sign for the fall.  Norton leads Bennett by two in the RCP Average.

Washington:  Rasmussen shows three-term Senator Patty Murray continuing to hold a narrow two-point advantage over Dino Rossi.  Murray fares better against her other Republican opponents, but is still just around 50%.  Both Rossi and Murray are fairly well-liked, and President Obama enjoys a slightly favorable job approval rating in the state.  Nevertheless, a slight plurality favors repealing the recently-enacted healthcare law.

Elway polling, on the other hand, shows Murray leading Rossi by a 51%-34% margin.  If you're trying to synthesize the polls, you'd say that Murray is just around 50% in both polls, but that the undecideds are leaning toward the Republican candidates.  Nevertheless, this is better news than Murray received from the SurveyUSA poll a few weeks back.  Murray leads Rossi by .3 in the RCP Average.

Illinois:  We Ask America polled the Illinois Senate race, and found Representative Mark Kirk with a 12-point lead over Democrat Alexi Giannoulias.  This is admittedly a larger lead than other pollsters have found, but it is due almost entirely to the higher percentage of undecided Democrats and Independents in the polls finding.  Given that almost all of the poll's Republicans have made up their mind, we could expect these undecideds ultimately to break heavily for the Democrat, tightening the race substantially.  Kirk leads by 1.7 points in the RCP Average.

Governor

Hawaii:  One little ray of sunshine for the Democrats is their consistent lead in the Hawaii gubernatorial race.  Congressman Neil Abercrombie leads Republican Lieutenant Governor Duke Aiona 40%-35% according to Ward Research; Honolulu Mayor Mufi Hanneman leads by a healthier 48%-35%.  Abercrombie narrowly leads Hannemann in the primary race, and Republican Governor Linda Lingle suffers from a 40%-53% approve/disapprove ratio.  This one is looking like a Democratic pickup.  Abercrombie leads by 15.4 points in the RCP Average.

Illinois:  We Ask America also polled the gubernatorial race (link above) and found that Republican Bill Brady is poised to defeat Democratic incumbent Pat Quinn.  Brady leads with 46% to Quinn's 31%.  Again, the undecideds are overwhelmingly Democratic and Independent, so we shouldn't be surprised if they broke heavily for the Republican here.  Brady leads Quinn by .7 in the RCP Average.

Don't look now, folks, but Freddie Mac is asking for another $10.6 billion dollar aid package from the federal government after suffering an $8 billion loss in the first quarter of this year. That would bring the total commitment of taxpayer dollars used to bailout the toxic mortgage giant to $61.3 billion.

If you're looking for a silver lining, try this on for size: during the first 90 days of this year, Freddie lost $88,888,888 per day. Believe it or not, that's an improvement over Freddie's performance during the same period last year, when it lost $115,555,555 per day.

This letter from a "concerned citizen" has been making the rounds on the internet. It's retyped below:

The other day, someone at a store in our town read that a Methamphetamine lab had been found in an old farmhouse in the adjoining county and he asked me a rhetorical question, “Why didn't we have a drug problem when you and I were growing up?”

I replied, I had a drug problem when I was young: I was drug to church on Sunday morning. I was drug to church for weddings and funerals. I was drug to family reunions and community socials no matter the weather.

I was drug by my ears when I was disrespectful to adults. I was also drug to the woodshed when I disobeyed my parents, told a lie, brought home a bad report card, did not speak with respect, spoke ill of the teacher or the preacher, or if I didn't put forth my best effort in everything that was asked of me.

I was drug to the kitchen sink to have my mouth washed out with soap if I uttered a profanity. I was drug out to pull weeds in mom's garden and flower beds and cockleburs out of dad's fields. I was drug to the homes of family, friends and neighbors to help out some poor soul who had no one to mow the yard, repair the clothesline, or chop some firewood, and, if my mother had even known that I took a single dime as a tip for this kindness, she would have drug me back to the woodshed.

Those drugs are still in my veins and they affect my behavior in everything I do, say or think. They are stronger than cocaine, crack, or heroin; and, if today's children had this kind of drug problem, America would be a better place.

God bless the parents who drugged us.

(Submitted by Concerned Citizen)

Let me second Jeffrey Goldberg, who singles out Ezra Klein for his blog post yesterday titled, "The economic crisis meets terrorism":

The weirdest commentary I've seen on the left so far has come from Ezra Klein, who wrote that Shahzad's story is "a reminder that foreclosures generate an enormous amount of misery and anxiety and depression that can tip people into all sorts of dangerous behaviors that don't make headlines but do ruin lives. And for all that we've done to save the financial sector, we've not done nearly enough to help struggling homeowners."

I agree, of course, that we have not done nearly enough to help struggling homeowners. But I would also point out that of the millions of Americans in foreclosure, exactly one has been accused of trying to blow up Times Square. And the fact that this particular person is a Muslim from Pakistan strikes me as not entirely irrelevant.

Goldberg is being diplomatic, of course. Klein's post is a laughable mix of emotionalism, liberal naivete, and political correctness rolled into a single nonsensical morsel. Someone should tell the Washington Post's left-wing blogging wonderboy to stick to health care policy.

Sen. Patty Murray's (D-WA) numbers are back up over 50 in some of the potential matchups against GOP opponents, per Rasmussen (5/4, 500 LVs, MoE +/- 4.5%). But in a head-to-head against potential candidate Dino Rossi (R), the race is still a toss-up.

General Election Matchups
Murray 48 (unch vs. last poll, 4/6)
Rossi 46 (unch)
Und 3 (-1)

Murray 52 (+4)
Benton 38 (-2)
Und 7 (-1)

Murray 51 (+4)
Didier 36 (-1)
Und 8 (-3)

Murray 49 (+4)
Akers 35 (-2)
Und 10 (-3)

Rossi, the two-time gubernatorial nominee, has still not announced his intentions. He told SeattlePI.com in an interview yesterday: "We are working some things through with the family and the feasibility of whether this can be done."

National Democrats have been launching some pre-emptive strikes with the expectation he eventually will run, something Rossi shrugged off. "After 18 years, is this all she has to run on?" he said.

Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX), chair of the NRSC, said last week that his committee was waiting to do whatever it can for him.

"Dino Rossi is exactly the kind of person that I think we need as we rebuild the Republican brand nationally," Cornyn said. "I'm hopeful that he will pull the trigger. He's not there yet."

DCCC Chairman Chris Van Hollen is sure Rep. David Obey (D-Wisc.) would have won his re-election bid had he not decided to retire.

"Chairman Obey would have won re-election again had he run," Van Hollen stated in a press release following Obey's announcement. "We are confident that a Democrat who shares Chairman Obey's commitment to making progress for Wisconsin's middle class families will succeed him as the next Representative of Wisconsin's 7th Congressional District."

Obey said as much during his going-away press conference, saying: "Let me put it this way, I've won 25 elections. Does anyone think I would walk away from a fight?"

The NRCC begs to differ, according to spokesman Ken Spain: "There is no question that David Obey was facing the race of his life and that is why it is understandable that the architect of President Obama's failed stimulus plan has decided to call it quits. It is ironic that a congressman who became infamously known for his short temper and angry tirades on the House floor, is going out with such a whimper."