North Carolina Sen. Richard Burr (R) is favored to win re-election no matter who comes out on top in the June 22 Democratic primary runoff, a new Rasmussen poll finds (May 5, 1200 LV, MoE +/- 3%).

Burr 48
Marshall 40
Und 9

Burr 50
Cunningham 37
Und 10

Marshall finished ahead in Tuesday's Democratic primary, but under the 40% threshold needed to win the nomination. Rasmussen released runoff poll results yesterday, finding Marshall ahead of Cunningham by 5 points.

RCP currently rates this race as Lean Republican.

The numbers have barely changed at all in Rasmussen's latest survey (500 LVs, 5/5, MoE +/- 4.5%) of the Ohio governor race.

General Election Matchup
Kasich (R) 46 (unch vs. last poll, 3/30)
Strickland (D) 45 (unch)
Und 6 (-1)

Forty-eight percent of Ohioans approve of Gov. Ted Strickland's job performance, 49 percent disapprove.

RCP currently places Ohio in the Toss Up category.

Another big swing in Muhlenberg's tracking poll
(5/3-6, 410 LVs, MoE +/- 5%) of the Pennsylvania Senate race. Today, Rep. Joe Sestak (D) has pulled even with Sen. Arlen Specter in the race.

Senate Primary Election Matchup
Specter 43 (-2)
Sestak 43 (+3)
Und 13 (-1)

Specter's favorable rating has dropped from a high of 58 percent in the May 3 release to 54 percent in today's offering. Sestak meanwhile peaks at 48 percent, up from just 42 percent two days ago.

In the gubernatorial race, Allegheny County Executive Dan Onorato sees a slight uptick for the first time.

Gubernatorial Primary Election Matchup
Onorato 35 (+1)
Hoeffel 11 (-1)
Williams 10 (+2)
Wagner 8 (-1)
Und 36 (-3)

A new Mason Dixon poll conducted in Florida (625 LVs, 5/3-10, MoE +/- 4%) shows Gov. Charlie Crist leading a three-way race for Senate, with Marco Rubio just behind and Rep. Kendrick Meek a distant third.

General Election Matchup
Crist (I) 38
Rubio (R) 32
Meek (D) 19

The pollster suspects, however, that Crist's lead is very soft, and that Meek stands to make up serious ground as he improves name recognition and as Democrats come home. Per the Miami Herald:

More than half of Crist's supporters are Democrats, who overwhelmingly approve of his defection from the GOP and recent veto of a controversial teacher tenure bill. Against the lesser-known Miami congressman, who is black, Crist is favored by 19 percent of black voters and 48 percent of Democrats, according to the survey. Meek wins support from 68 percent of black voters and 36 percent of Democrats.

"It is very questionable whether or not these party and race numbers can hold up over the next six months unless the national Democratic Party and its leaders (including President Barack Obama) throw Meek under the bus,'' said Mason-Dixon pollster Brad Coker. "His strength among Democrats is likely a result of the fact that Meek is not known to 40 percent of state voters.''

Meek, of course, still has a primary on his hand. Jeff Greene, a wealthy real estate developer, just entered the race in the past week.

RCP currently classifies the race as a Toss Up.

With fewer than two weeks until the Democratic Senate primary in Arkansas, challenger Bill Halter is doubling up Sen. Blanche Lincoln in dollars raised. The incumbent still has a considerable advantage in cash on hand, though some of those funds may only be available in the general election.

Per the AP:

Halter's campaign announced Thursday he raised $579,761 between April 1 and April 28, the last reporting period before the May 18 primary. Halter spent more than $1 million and has $558,147 in the bank.

Lincoln's campaign reported that she raised $300,933 during the same period, and spent nearly $1.5 million. She has more than $3.1 million in the bank.

Both Lincoln and Halter's campaigns have been blanketing the state's airwaves with advertisements. Eight Republicans are seeking the GOP nomination for Lincoln's seat.

Lincoln has not trailed in any of the primary polling, but she also is generally falling short of the 50 percent required to avoid a runoff campaign.

An ordinary American rallying cry against PC insanity.

Picking sides in another competitive GOP primary, former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin endorsed Carly Fiorina in the California Senate race.

"Carly is the Commonsense Conservative that California needs and our country could sure use in these trying times. Most importantly, she's running for the right reasons," Palin writes in a Facebook post announcing her choice. "She has an understanding that is sorely lacking in D.C. She's not a career politician. She's a businesswoman who has run a major corporation. She knows how to really incentivize job creation. Her fiscal conservatism is rooted in real life experience. She knows that when government grows, the private sector shrinks under the burden of debt and deficits. We can trust Carly to do the right thing for America's economy and to make the principled decisions she has throughout her professional career."

Fiorina had been considered a potential running mate choice for John McCain in 2008, a nod that ultimately went to Palin. But Fiorina remained one of the ticket's main female surrogates.

In an interview with RCP last November, Fiorina identified Palin as one of the party's leading voices but seemed cool to the idea of calling on her or any other Republican to campaign for her in the state.

"I think what's most important right now is that people actually get to know me," she said.

Former Rep. Tom Campbell currently leads the primary race in the RCP Average by 6 points over Fiorina. Other national leaders, including Mike Huckabee and Jim DeMint, have endorsed a third candidate, Assemblyman Chuck DeVore.

You can read the full Palin endorsement after the jump.

(more...)

An internal poll for the Tim Burns campaign finds the Republican nominee statistically tied with Democratic nominee Mark Critz in the special election race for Pennsylvania's 12th District. Burns leads 43%-41%, well inside the 4.9% margin of error.

While the candidates are neck-and-neck, the poll, conducted of 400 likely voters from May 4-5 by Public Opinion Strategies, finds more enthusiasm for the May 18 contest on the GOP side.

Just four-in-10 respondents could say when the election is, and of them 49% said they'd vote for Burns and 40% said Critz. Among the most interested in the election (72% of those polled), 46% like Burns and 40% Critz. And among those who are "extremely likely to vote" (65%), 45% choose Burns and 41% Critz.

The special election to replace the late Democratic Rep. John Murtha is less than two weeks away. The poll found 14% remain undecided.

Rasmussen tests the North Carolina Senate primary runoff between Secretary of State Elaine Marshall and former state Sen. Cal Cunningham.

Primary Runoff Election Matchup
(522 LVs, 5/5, MoE +/- 4.5%)
Marshall 42
Cunningham 37
Und 17

The runoff is June 22.

George W. Bush is making his political comeback in a new TV ad for Pennsylvania Senate candidate Joe Sestak. The Philly-area congressman is tying his Democratic primary opponent, Sen. Arlen Specter, to the former Republican president, who endorsed Specter in his competitive 2004 Republican primary.

"I can count on this man. See, that's important," says Bush in a video clipped from 2004 for the new ad. The ad also criticizes Specter's party switch last year as a selfish move that helped nobody but himself.

Sestak spokesman Jonathon Dworkin, on the new ad: "This election is about who we can count on to represent our values on the day after the election and for the next six years. Many Democrats are skeptical of why Arlen Specter switched parties after enthusiastically touting the endorsement of President Bush. But there is no way Senator Specter can make his motives more clear than he does in his own words."