Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky now has another reason to back Trey Grayson in the GOP primary race for Kentucky's open Senate seat.

From the AP:

LEXINGTON, Ky. — Front-runner Rand Paul said in a U.S. Senate debate Monday night that he may not support Kentucky's other senator, Mitch McConnell, for minority floor leader if he's elected.

"I'd have to know who the opponent is and make a decision at that time," Paul said in a sometimes testy televised debate, the final face off in what has become an increasing acrimonious race to replace Sen. Jim Bunning.

His chief Republican opponent, Kentucky Secretary of State Trey Grayson, said he "proudly" would vote for McConnell. McConnell endorsed Grayson in the May 18 primary. South Carolina Sen. Jim DeMint, who endorsed Paul, has been mentioned as a potential McConnell opponent for minority leader, though DeMint has said he has no such intention.

Kentucky is one of three states holding big primaries a week from today. Democrats in Pennsylvania and Arkansas will decide whether they want their incumbent senator, Arlen Specter and Blanche Lincoln, to represent them on the general election ballot in November.

Sen. Arlen Specter (D) makes up a bit of ground in the Muhlenberg College tracking poll (5/7-10, 401 LVs, MoE +/- 5%) of the Pennsylvania Senate race.

Senate Primary Election Matchup
Sestak 47 (unch)
Specter 43 (+1)
Und 10 (-1)

In the gubernatorial race, state Sen. Anthony Williams again is emerging as the leading runner-up.

Gubernatorial Primary Election Matchup
Onorato 33 (-2)
Williams 15 (unch)
Hoeffel 10 (+2)
Wagner 9 (-1)
Und 34 (+2)

Senate

PA Senate Primary:  Obviously the big news is the polling coming out of Pennsylvania.   Both the Morning Call tracking poll and the Rasmussen polling have Sestak leading Specter by five points.  Obviously, this is a precarious position for an incumbent to be in a week before an election.  The chart over at the RCP Average page tells the story.  The issue isn't so much Specter falling as it is undecideds breaking against the incumbent.  Unless these polls turn around dramatically in the next few days, you have to be pretty pessimistic about Specter's chances.  This is good news for the Democrats, since Sestak polls better against Republican Pat Toomey than does Specter.

Governor

Florida Governor:  Attorney General Bill McCollum sports a 7.8% lead over Alex Sink in the RCP Average, and leads by nine, according to Mason Dixon.  Sink has led in exactly one poll this cycle, so you have to consider McCollum the favorite, though not prohibitively so.  This assumes, of course, that McCollum doesn't get upended in the September primary by his two unknown GOP opponents.

Maryland: The WaPo poll shows Governor Martin O'Malley below 50%, barely, against the man he beat in 2006, Bob Ehrlich.  Of course, that isn't the kiss of death that it is for most incumbents, since Ehrlich is a well-known quantity as well.    Among those most likely to vote, however, the race is a tie, which should be terrifying for the O'Malley camp.  Keep an eye on this one.

PA Governor Primary:  The polling also shows Allegheny County executive Dan Onorato leading the Democratic primary by an increasingly large margin.  This is good news for the Democrats.  The Pittsburgh area has been trending away from them, keeping the state in play.  Having a gubernatorial candidate who is known in that area increases their chances in the fall pretty substantially over a Philly-based candidate.

House

Generic: Rasmsusen has the Republicans up by six, while Gallup has the parties tied among registered voters.  Republicans lead by .5 in the RCP Average.

HI-01:  With the DCCC's announcement that it is pulling out of HI-01, that race is effectively over.  A recent poll by Merriman River Group found that Djou was leading 40% to 25% for his two Democratic opponents.  But among those who had already voted -- the mail-in race was half over -- Djou received 45% of the vote.  If Djou ends up at or above 50%, it will be a major blow to the Democrats.

TX-17:  The Rothenberg Political Report obtained a poll from Democratic Rep. Chet Edwards' opponent showing him up a dozen points.  Edwards isn't planning on answering the poll, which isn't a good sign for him.   Edwards is well-liked by the district, but it just doesn't seem to want to send a Democrat to Congress.  Obviously the race will turn on whether Edwards is able to localize this race, or whether he gets caught up in the national wave.

I'm sure this will do wonders for Arlen Specter's rapidly failing candidacy:

Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry on Monday endorsed Republican-turned-Democrat Arlen Specter in Pennsylvania's contested Senate primary as the incumbent tries to fend off criticism that he used "Swiftboat"-style attacks.

The 2004 Democratic presidential nominee released a statement praising Specter as a "fighter and a friend, and I am proud to vouch for his character." Kerry's press secretary, Whitney Smith, later said Kerry was endorsing Specter.

Marty Peretz is not happy with the editorial judgment at TNR.

It looks like the Democrats are going to have to make do with one fewer seat over the next six months.  Roll Call is reporting that the DCCC is pulling out of the special election in HI-01, which Democrat Neil Abercrombie is vacating to run for Governor of Hawaii:

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee announced Monday morning that it will no longer invest resources in the May 22 special election in Hawaii's 1st district, effectively ceding the race to Republicans and likely setting the party up for what could be their first special election loss of the cycle.

“The DCCC will not be investing additional resources in the HI-01 (Abercrombie-open) special election,” DCCC spokesman Jennifer Crider said in a statement. “Local Democrats were unable to work out their differences. The DCCC will save the resources we would have invested in the Hawaii special election this month for the general election in November.”

The last time that the Democrats lost a seat in a House special election?  Back in 2001, when Randy Forbes picked up Norm Sisisky's seat in Virginia.

BTW, the conventional wisdom is that the Democrats will just pick this D+13 seat back up in the Fall when there is only one Democrat on the ticket.  I'm not so certain.  The Democratic performance of the district is almost certainly overstated by hometown hero Barack Obama's performance in the district, the district was hotly contested between the parties in the late 80s and early 90s and hasn't changed its lines that much, and Linda Lingle carried it in her runs for Governor.  This is more of an analogy to MA-05 or MS-01, a seat that is heavily partisan at the presidential level but still competitive at other levels.

President Obama phoned Senate leaders Harry Reid and Mitch McConnell this morning (as well as the leaders of the Judiciary Committee) to inform them of his decision to nominate Solicitor General Elena Kagan to the Supreme Court. Obama formally nominated her in the East Room at 10 a.m. Here are Reid and McConnell's initial reactions to the nomination:
(more...)

On Politics Nation, Mike Memoli and Kyle Trygstad preview the week ahead and point out that the nomination of Elena Kagan for the Supreme Court complicates Sen. Arlen Specter's primary battle against Rep. Joe Sestak. Specter voted against Kagan for solicitor general when he was a Republican.

Writing on RCM, Bill Frezza, a partner at Adams Capital Management, argues that America needs to change course before it ends up facing the same upheaval Greece is dealing with today. Alfred Tella, former Georgetown University research professor of economics, writes that when assessing the labor market, we should focus on job growth numbers instead of unemployment numbers.

On the heels of Oakland A's pitcher Dallas Braden's perfect game Sunday, Jeff Neuman recaps the odd history of one of sports' greatest achievements on RCS.

Rasmussen's latest poll (408 LVs, 5/6, MoE +/- 5%) of the Pennsylvania Democratic primary closely mirrors today's Muhlenberg tracking poll.

Senate Primary Election Matchup
Sestak 47 (+5 vs. last poll, 4/12)
Specter 42 (-2)
Und 8 (-2)

Some more numbers that speak to Specter's predicament: 31 percent of respondents view him unfavorably, compared to 22 percent who view Sestak unfavorably. And 35 percent say Specter's run a negative campaign, compared to 11 percent who say that of Sestak.

The trend remains ominous for Sen. Arlen Specter (D) in the Muhlenberg College tracking poll (5/6-9, 398 LVs, MoE +/- 5%) of the Pennsylvania Senate race. Rep. Joe Sestak (D) leads for the third straight day, having turned a 9-point deficit last week into a 5-point lead.

Senate Primary Election Matchup
Sestak 47 (+1)
Specter 42 (unch)
Und 11 (-1)

In the gubernatorial race, Allegheny County Executive Dan Onorato still leads. State Sen. Anthony Williams is now the leading runner-up.

Gubernatorial Primary Election Matchup
Onorato 35 (-1)
Williams 15 (+3)
Wagner 10 (+2)
Hoeffel 8 (-2)
Und 32 (-4)