Sean notes the big story out of Tuesday's voting, the defeat of Alan Mollohan in West Virginia-01. Here are some other headlines from other races that took place yesterday.
* Mollohan's Mountain State colleague Nick Rahall was renominated, beating an underfunded challenger with two-thirds of the vote. He'll face former state Supreme Court justice (and former Democrat) Elliott Maynard, who eked out a win in the GOP primary.
* There were no major upsets in Nebraska's primary elections. Rep. Lee Terry (R) won two thirds of the vote against a tea party challenger and will face Democrat Tom White this November. Barack Obama won that district in 2008, thus earning one of the state's electoral votes. Gov. Dave Heineman (R) easily won renomination, and will face Omaha businessman Mark Lakers in his bid for a second full term. No Democrats filed to challenge Republican incumbents for state attorney general and auditor.
* The special election to replace Rep. Nathan Deal in Georgia-09 is headed to a runoff. Republicans Tom Graves and Lee Hawkins were the top two finishers in the heavily-GOP district; the only Democrat in the five-candidate field got just under 6 percent of the vote.
* Also in Georgia, the grandson of former President Jimmy Carter won a special election for the state Senate. The state legislature is not in session for the rest of the year, though, and he must win another race to actually serve in the legislature. He beat another Democrat by more than 40 points in the low-turnout race.
* Another win for the Massachusetts GOP: Richard Ross won a special election to fill the state Senate seat vacated by U.S. Sen. Scott Brown (R). He beat his Democratic opponent by more than 6,000 votes. A Democrat won another special election for a Democrat-held seat, so the makeup of the state Senate does not change.
* Newark Mayor Cory Booker cruised to re-election in New Jersey's biggest city. But an ally of the City Council was defeated and another faces a runoff. Some Garden State Democrats are looking at Booker as a potential 2013 gubernatorial candidate against recently-elected Gov. Chris Christie (R).
PA Sen Polls: It's a 2-Point Game
Posted by Kyle Trygstad | Email This | Permalink | Email Author
With less than a week to go in the Pennsylvania Democratic Senate primary, two new polls from Franklin & Marshall College and Quinnipiac University find Sen. Alren Specter and Rep. Joe Sestak within 2 points. F&M has Sestak up 2; Quinnpiac has Specter up 2.
Franklin & Marshall (May 3-9, 150 Dem LV, MoE +/- 7.9%)
Sestak 38 - Specter 36
"The key to a Specter victory will arise from his ability to cast doubts on Sestak's credentials and to create a well-organized election-day turnout machine," the F&M pollsters write. "Sestak must continue to build on the momentum he has established as a viable alternative to the incumbent."
The survey also found Allegheny Co. Executive Dan Onorato (D) and Attorney General Tom Corbett (R) well ahead of their gubernatorial primary opponents.
Quinnipiac (May 5-10, 945 Dem LV, MoE +/- 3.2%)
Specter 44 (-3 vs. last poll, May 4)
Sestak 42 (+5)
Und 14
"The intangibles are clearly on Sestak's side. He has the momentum and the anti-incumbent wave sweeping the country is a good omen for the challenger,” said Quinnpiac assistant director Peter A. Brown. "Troubling for Specter is that one in seven likely primary voters are undecided and incumbents – especially 30-year incumbents who have switched parties – rarely get much of the undecided vote."
Sestak leads by 1.2 points in the RCP Average
PA Tracking: Specter Pulls Even Again
Posted by Mike Memoli | Email This | Permalink | Email Author
Sen. Arlen Specter (D) has pulled even again in the latest Muhlenberg College tracking poll (5/8-11, 407 LVs, MoE +/- 5%) of the Pennsylvania Senate race.
Senate Primary Election Matchup
Sestak 45 (-2)
Specter 45 (+2)
Und 9 (-1)
In the 11 days Muhlenberg has been tracking, Sestak's favorable rating has risen 10 points while his unfavorable has dropped. His overall rating stands at 55 / 9 among respondents. Specter's favorable rating, meanwhile, has dropped 4 points while his unfavorable rating has shot up four points; he now stands at 54 / 35.
In the gubernatorial race, Allegheny County Executive Dan Onorato ticks up again, while state Sen. Anthony Williams seems to be settling in as the main challenger.
Gubernatorial Primary Election Matchup
Onorato 37 (+4)
Williams 15 (unch)
Wagner 9 (unch)
Hoeffel 8 (-2)
Und 30 (-4)
First House Incumbent Of '10 Loses
Posted by Sean Trende | Email This | Permalink | Email Author
If you needed any other proof how ugly the political climate is out there for incumbents, state Senator Mike Oliverio defeated 14-term Democrat Alan Mollohan tonight in the primary in West Virginia's First Congressional District. It wasn't even particularly close; as of this writing, Mollohan is down 56%-44%. The district is centered on Wheeling and Morgantown, and has been represented by a Mollohan since 1968 (Mollohan's father was a Congressman as well).
RCP currently classifies this race as a Tossup, but Mollohan's defeat scrambles the calculus somewhat, and may even strengthen the Democrats' chances of retaining this seat. Republicans planned on running against Mollohan on the allegations of ethical improprieties brought against him, on his vote on health care, and support of President Obama on other issues. But Oliverio ran to Mollohan's right, castigating him on his health care vote and on the ethics allegations. Although the district went heavily for John McCain, there is still a significant Democratic base at the local level that is perfectly capable of sending a Democrat to Congress.
But this race isn't just about Alan Mollohan anymore, it's about Oliverio and the GOP winner, David McKinley. How they handle themselves over the next six months will determine whether this race breaks toward the Republicans or toward the Democrats.
The other West Virginia Democrat, Nick Rahall, was held to 67% of the vote by a candidate who believed that we should oppose hate crimes bills because they support gay sex. Rahall will probably face off against former Supreme Court Justice Elliot "Spike" Maynard.
And Arlen Specter should be very, very afraid.
Obama Supports Specter On TV, Not In Person
Posted by Mike Memoli | Email This | Permalink | Email Author
Sen. Arlen Specter (D) has launched a TV ad featuring high praise from President Obama, rebutting a tough spot from Joe Sestak that reminds Pennsylvania Democrats of the incumbent's past support from former President Bush.
Obama may appear on the airwaves in these final days before next week's primary, but it seems unlikely he'll schedule any time with him in person. At today's daily press briefing, press secretary Robert Gibbs answered with a simple "no" when asked if the president had plans to head to the Keystone State on Specter's behalf.
During interviews this morning to talk about the new Supreme Court nominee, Vice President Biden did say he may return again to support his former Senate colleague. Meanwhile, Gov. Chet Culver's campaign announced today that Biden will appear in Iowa with the embattled first-term leader next Tuesday.
CA Poll: Whitman Losing Ground
Posted by Kyle Trygstad | Email This | Permalink | Email Author
Meg Whitman has lost major ground in the last couple weeks to her California gubernatorial primary opponent, Steve Poizner, in a new SurveyUSA poll (May 6-9, 548 GOP LV, MoE +/- 4.3%). Whitman was up 22 points on April 22, and now finds herself up just 2 points with a month to go.
Whitman 39 (-10 vs. last poll April 22)
Poizner 37 (+10)
Other 10
Und 14
In the GOP Senate primary, Tom Cambell has increased his lead over Carly Fiorina from 7 to 11 points in the last couple weeks.
Campbell 35 (+1 vs. last poll April 22)
Fiorina 24 (-3)
DeVore 15 (+1)
Und 23
Click here for more polling in the race.
Beau Biden Had "Mild Stroke"
Posted by Mike Memoli | Email This | Permalink | Email Author
This morning, the Vice President Joe Biden's office issued a rather cryptic statement saying only that his son, Beau Biden, who serves as Delaware's attorney general, had been hospitalized. Now, confirmation of his condition:
Statement from Dr. Timothy Gardner, Medical Director of the Center for Heart and Vascular Surgery at Christiana Care Health System
"Delaware Attorney General Beau Biden was admitted this morning to Christiana Hospital in Newark, Delaware after having what we believe to be a mild stroke. He is in good spirits and talking with his family at the hospital. He is fully alert, in stable condition and has full motor and speech skills. We expect him to make a complete recovery."
The elder Biden famously suffered two brain aneurysms in the 1980s. The vice president was with his son at the hospital today, along with his wife and daughter-in-law.
Beau Biden, 41, decided earlier this year not to run for his father's former Senate seat, and instead seek another term as attorney general this fall. No word yet on whether this episode would change those plans.
PA Sen Poll: Toomey +2 vs. Sestak
Posted by Kyle Trygstad | Email This | Permalink | Email Author
With the competitive Pennsylvana Senate Democratic primary just a week away and on the heels of new polls finding Rep. Joe Sestak leading incumbent Sen. Arlen Specter, a new Rasmussen poll finds Sestak down just 2 points to Repubican Pat Toomey. Specter, meanwhile, trails by 12 points, with just 38% support -- a number that would seem to indicate at this point in the race that winning re-election is highly unlikely.
Toomey 42 (-5 vs. last poll, April 12)
Sestak 40 (+4)
Und 9
Click here for more polling in the race.
Toomey 50 (nc)
Specter 38 (-2)
Und 6
Click here for more polling in the race
The survey was conducted May 6 of 1,000 likely voters with a MoE of +/- 3%. RCP rates this race Lean Republican.
NC Sen Poll: Burr, Marshall Neck-and-Neck
Posted by Kyle Trygstad | Email This | Permalink | Email Author
As the North Carolina Democrats look to prove they are the more viable challenger to incumbent Sen. Richard Burr (R) in the lead-up to their June 22 primary runoff, a new PPP poll finds Secretary of State Elaine Marshall statistically tied with the first-term senator. Former state Sen. Cal Cunningham trails by 5 points, as both Dems improve their standing against Burr since last month.
Burr 43 (nc vs. last poll, April 12)
Marshall 42 (+5)
Und 15
Burr 44 (+1)
Cunningham 39 (+4)
Und 17
The survey was conducted May 8-10 of 631 RV with MoE +/- 3.9%. Click here for more polling on the race. RCP currently rates this race Lean Republican.
On Politics Nation, Kyle Trygstad reports on Rep. Alan Mollohan's toughest primary challenge in nearly three decades from state Sen. Mike Oliverio. Even if the West Virginia Democrat pulls out a victory, Trygstad writes, he could face a tough challenge from the Republicans in November.
On RCP, Jeremy Lott reviews Scott Rasmussen's new book, "In Search of Self-Governance," and Thomas Sowell writes about restrictions on care for the elderly in some medical systems. He argues that the view that the elderly have "a duty to die" represents a breakdown of traditional values.
On RCM, Louis Woodhill, a member of the Leadership Council of the Club for Growth, explains why tax increases are not an effective response to a debt crisis. Josh Barro, senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute, details how California missed its April tax revenue target by 26%.
RCS has a list of the Top 10 Athletes Turned Golfers. Also on RCS, Tim Joyce writes that the NFL has had to endure far less scrutiny over steroids than baseball.

