Support for Sharron Angle in the June 8 Nevada GOP Senate primary has jumped 20 points in the last month, according to a new Las Vegas Review-Journal/Mason-Dixon poll (May 10-11, 500 LV, MoE +/- 4.5%). Angle, who's been endorsed by tea partiers, has moved ahead of Danny Tarkanian for second place behind former state GOP chair Sue Lowden, whose support dropped significantly.

Lowden 30 (-15 vs. last poll, April 7)
Angle 25 (+20)
Tarkanian 22 (-5)
Other 5
Und 18

RCP currently rates the general election race Lean Republican.

In Colorado, former Rep. Scott McInnis (R) once again holds a 6-point lead over Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper (D) in the gubernatorial race, a new Rasmussen poll finds (May 11, 500 LV, MoE +/- 4.5%). This is the third month in a row McInnis's lead has been 6 points; Hickenlooper initially held a 4-point lead in February following Gov. Bill Ritter's (D) retirement announcement.

McInnis 47 (-1 vs. last poll, April 15)
Hickenlooper 41 (-1)
Und 6

RCP currently rates this race a Toss Up.

A new Quinnipiac University poll finds Democrat Joe Sestak surging into a statistical tie with Republican Pat Toomey in a hypothetical general election match up in the Pennsylvania Senate race. Sestak gained six points in the last month while Toomey's support remained solid, resulting a two point Toomey lead:

Toomey (R) 42 (nc vs last poll in April)
Sestak (D) 40 (+6)
Undecided 16 (-6)

All three public polls taken in the last week now show Sestak within 1-2 points of Toomey.

Meanwhile, Toomey ticked up slightly in a potential match up against Arlen Specter:

Toomey (R) 47 +1)
Specter (D) 40 (-1)
Undecided 12 (nc)

Toomey's average lead over Specter now stands at seven points as well.

Specter's attack on Sestak in the primary appears to have taken a heavy toll on his image. Last month, 71% of Democrats and 35% of Independents held a favorable view of Specter. This month, those numbers have dropped to 56% and 30%, respectively. Overall, 50% of Pennsylvanians now hold an unfavorable view of Specter - an all time high in the Quinnipiac poll.

Conversely, Sestak's favorable ratings have jumped across the board: up 7 points among Democrats to 40%, up 10 points among Republicans to 23%, and up 15 points among Independents to 31%.

In the governor's race, Democrat Dan Onorato is now within shouting distance of front runner Tom Corbett, gaining a net six points in the last month. Corbett remains comfortably ahead of other potential Democratic gubernatorial nominees:

Corbett (R) 43 (-2)
Onorato (D) 37 (+4)
Undecided 19 (-2)

Corbett (R) 47 (-1)
Wagner (D) 28 (-1)
Undecided 23 (+2)

Corbett (R) 49 (-1)
Hoeffel (D) 26 (-2)
Undecided 22 (+1)

There hasn't been much of a shift in the last month of SurveyUSA polling in Kentucky, where Republican Rand Paul is up 16 points against Trey Grayson, and Democrat Daniel Mongiardo leads by 1 point over Jack Conway. The challengers have just a few days left before the May 18 primaries for this open Republican seat.

Republicans (May 9-11, 440 GOP LV, MoE +/- 4.8%)
Paul 49 (+4 vs. last poll, April 12)
Grayson 33 (+3)
Und 11

Democrats (May 9-11, 662 Dem LV, MoE +/- 3.9%)
Mongiardo 38 (+3 vs. last poll, April 12)
Conway 37 (+5)
Price 7
Other 6
Und 12

Meanwhile, Rand Paul gets top-of-the-fold treatment in the Washington Post today. Check out the story here.

The latest Muhlenberg College tracking poll (5/9-12, 405 LVs, MoE +/- 5%) of the Pennsylvania Senate race shows Sen. Arlen Specter and Rep. Joe Sestak still neck-and-neck with just days to go.

Senate Primary Election Matchup
Sestak 44 (-1)
Specter 44 (-1)
Und 12 (+3)

In the gubernatorial race, more than one-in-four voters remain undecided, but Allegheny County Executive Dan Onorato has not shown signs of losing frontrunner status.

Gubernatorial Primary Election Matchup
Onorato 39 (+2)
Williams 14 (-1)
Hoeffel 11 (+3)
Wagner 9 (unch)
Und 27 (-3)

In our interview with former Sen. Dan Coats (R) yesterday, we asked about a potential presidential run by Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels (R) in 2012. Coats praised his record in the Hoosier State, and said he would make a strong candidate.

COATS: If you look at his record, it stands out there with some amazing accomplishments at a time of real distress. Here's a state surrounded by states going bankrupt, can't pay the bills. A state with a AAA credit rating, balanced budget, without raising taxes, and positioned to really profit from an economic rebound. Major cutbacks in government spending, which is very encouraging to people. Cap on tax increases. I mean, it's a remarkable story. So if the country is looking for competence and experience and been-there-done-that success, it'll be pretty hard to find someone better than Mitch Daniels.

RCP: He had seemed cool to the idea but now he seems like he's warming up to it. Have you talked to him? Do you think it is something he's considering it?

COATS: I think he's considering it with some seriousness, but a long way away from making a decision. Testing the waters.

You can read the full interview here.

Rasmussen has polled in Alaska for the first time in some months (500 LVs, 5/6, MoE +/- 4.5%), and finds that Gov. Sean Parnell (R) looks like a safe bet to hold the seat he inherited from Sarah Palin last summer.

Parnell does face primary competition, but Rasmussen only polls the general.

General Election Matchups
Parnell (R) 58 -- Berkowitz (D) 30 -- Und 8
Parnell (R) 62 -- French (D) 24 -- Und 9
Parnell (R) 62 -- Poe (D) 21 -- Und 12

Samuels (R) 43 -- Berkowitz (D) 36 -- Und 12
Samuels (R) 48 -- French (D) 26 -- Und 17
Samuels (R) 47 -- Poe (D) 23 -- Und 19

Parnell's approval rating is 70 percent, while just 29 percent disapprove. Just 39 percent of Alaskans approve of President Obama's job performance, while 61 percent disapprove.

RCP classifies the race as Safe Republican.

Democrats Elaine Marshall and Cal Cunningham are all tied up in the North Carolina Democratic Senate runoff, according to a new PPP poll (May 8-10, 445 Dem LV, MoE +/- 4.6%).

Marshall 36
Cunningham 36
Und 28

"Next month's runoff election is likely to see even lower turnout than last week's
primary," said PPP president Dean Debnam. "We're finding that Cunningham's supporters are more enthusiastic than Marshall's, and that could allow him to close the gap from last week's results between now and the runoff."

Cunningham leads 46%-31% among those most excited to vote (49%), while Marshall leads 42%-31% among those somewhat excited to vote (38%) and 28%-18% among those not very excited (11%). Marshall also holds a 44%-22% lead among African Americans, who could make up a third of the electorate.

Interestingly, the survey found that likely runoff voters weren't sure who the national party is backing (Cunningham).

Marshall won the May 4 primary with 36% of the vote to Cunningham's 27%. As expected, Cunningham requested a runoff because Marshall did not win the 40% necessary to become the nominee. The runoff will be held June 22.

On Politics Nation, Kyle Trygstad reports that Democrat Mark Critz has pulled ahead of Republican Tim Burns in the special election in Pennsylvania's 12th district, according to a new poll. Mike Memoli recaps RCP's interview with former Indiana Senator (and current Republican candidate) Dan Coats, who says he sees similarities between Elena Kagan and Harriet Miers.

On the Media Watch blog, Doug Clawson comments on Dan Rather's critique of the current media environment.

Steven Malanga writes on RCM about a new study by Harvard economists and fellows at the National Bureau of Economic Research that reveals that earmark spending can hurt private investment and enterprise. Also on RCM, William Yeatman and Jeremy Lott take on Thomas Friedman's assertion that China is going to lap the U.S. in the development of green technology.

On RCS, Art Spander writes that despite losing his first game on Tuesday, Barry Zito has found a comfort zone in San Francisco.

Finally, check out RCW's Global Prosperity Analysis, which includes the latest data from the Legatum Institute on the well-being of countries around the world.

Rasmussen's latest poll of the Massachusetts governor's race (500 LVs, 5/10, MoE +/- 4.5%) shows Gov. Deval Patrick (D) surging to a 14-point lead over Charlie Baker, as independent candidate Tim Cahill's numbers have sunk into the low teens.

General Election Matchup
Patrick (D) 45 (+10 vs. last poll, 4/5)
Baker (R) 31 (+4)
Cahill (I) 14 (-9)
Und 10 (-5)

The Republican Governors Association has been pummeling Cahill, the state treasurer and a former Democrat, in paid television media. But rather than consolidating the anti-Patrick vote, it arguably has led voters back to the incumbent. The numbers are even more notable given that Baker clinched his party's nomination in mid-April; he's since shaken up his campaign team.

Patrick's job rating has only slightly improved since April; 48 percent now approve of his performance while 50 percent disapprove, a three-point improvement in his net job rating. President Obama's numbers showed greater improvement, now standing at 63 percent approve and 37 percent disapprove, up from 56-44 last month.

RCP classifies the race as Leans Democrat.