2012 Poll: Gingrich Stirs The Pot
Posted by Kyle Trygstad | Email This | Permalink | Email Author
A new national survey of Republican voters' presidential preferences for 2012 finds Newt Gingrich siphoning support from Mitt Romney, allowing Mike Huckabee to take a small lead. The PPP poll added Gingrich to the mix this time, and with Sarah Palin, the four potential candidates finished within 5 points of each other.
Huckabee 25
Romney 23
Gingrich 21
Palin 20
Paul 8
Und 3
The survey was conducted May 7-9 of 539 likely GOP primary voters, with a +/- 4.2% margin of error. It did not include two Midwesterners that could make a splash if they decide to run.
Former Bush adviser Mark McKinnon writes today on the Daily Beast that with conventional wisdom tossed out the window because of the current political climate, who is likely to gain traction? "The odds increasingly favor someone like Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels or South Dakota Senator John Thune," he writes.
RCP reported a year ago that during a speech in Washington, Daniels told a crowd of conservatives that governor would be the last public office he held. But former Indiana Sen. Dan Coats, who's running for his old seat this year, told RCP in an interview this week that Daniels is "considering it with some seriousness."
NV Gov Poll: Gibbons Loses Ground
Posted by Kyle Trygstad | Email This | Permalink | Email Author
With the June 8 Republican gubernatorial primary now less than a month away, Gov. Jim Gibbons (R) has lost ground to former federal Judge Brian Sandoval, according to a new Las Vegas Review-Journal/Mason-Dixon poll (May 10-11, 500 GOP LV, MoE +/- 4.5%)
Sandoval 45 (+6 vs. last poll, April 10)
Gibbons 27 (+2)
Montandon 6
"If Gibbons cannot come back, he would be the first incumbent governor in Nevada history to lose his party's primary," the Review-Journal reports.
Click here for more polling in the race.
PA Tracking: Specter Back On Top
Posted by Mike Memoli | Email This | Permalink | Email Author
Corrected
Sen. Arlen Specter has reclaimed a lead in the latest Muhlenberg College tracking poll (5/10-13, 416 LVs, MoE +/- 5%) of the Pennsylvania Senate race. Specter had not led for more than a week.
Senate Primary Election Matchup
Specter 45 (+1)
Sestak 43 (-1)
Und 12 (unch)
The gubernatorial race looks like it's Allegheny County Executive Dan Onorato's to lose entering the final weekend.
Gubernatorial Primary Election Matchup
Onorato 39 (unch)
Williams 14 (unch)
Hoeffel 11 (unch)
Wagner 11 (+2)
Und 25 (-2)
Who's the Coward Now, Mr. Holder?
Posted by Tom Bevan | Email This | Permalink | Email Author
In testimony before the House Judiciary Committee, the man who famously slammed America as a "nation of cowards" for not having frank discussions on the issue of race spends the better part of two very long minutes dancing around a direct question of whether "radical Islam" might have played a role in motivating the three terrorism incidents in the United States in the last year. Watch:
"Let me be frank in my assessment -- there are no liberals on the Supreme Court. I say that with all due respect to the current justices serving, but we don't have a Thurgood Marshall or a William Brennan on the Court today. I don't know that we'll be able to have one in the foreseeable future, in light of the fact that so much has been made about politics. We have conservatives -- we have ultra-conservatives -- but we don't have liberals." Harvard Law Professor and Obama legal mentor, Charles Ogletree, in an interview with Essence Magazine.
AR Sen Poll: Lincoln Leads Halter, But Runoff Possible
Posted by Mike Memoli | Email This | Permalink | Email Author
Daily Kos has released results of the latest survey in the Arkansas Senate race, which shows Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D) ahead in the primary but woefully behind in general election matchups. The survey was conducted by Research 2000 from May 10-12.
Democratic Primary Election Matchup
Lincoln 46 (+3 vs. last poll, 4/26-28)
Halter 37 (+2)
Morrison 6 (-1)
Und 11 (-4)
Republican Primary Election Matchup
Boozman 46
Holt 19
Baker 12
Hendren 6
Coleman 2
Und 13
A June 8 runoff in each party will take place if no candidate reaches 50 percent on Tuesday. Here are matchups assuming Boozman holds on to win the GOP race:
General Election Matchups
Boozman 54 (+2)
Lincoln 40 (-2)
Und 6 (unch)
Boozman 50 (+3)
Halter 41 (-1)
Und 9 (-2)
RCP classifies the race as Likely Republican.
Suffolk University has joined the polling frenzy in Pennsylvania, releasing numbers today showing Rep. Joe Sestak (D) leading Sen. Arlen Specter (D) in Tuesday's primary.
Senate Primary Election Matchup
(400 LVs, 5/11-13, MoE +/- 4.9%)
Sestak 49
Specter 40
Und 12
Two-in-five voters say they made up their minds before the month, while 46 percent decided either within the last month or the last week. Another 9 percent have decided just "in the last few days."
Asked who had a better chance of winning in November, 43 percent said Specter while 38 percent said Sestak.
After the jump, Suffolk's numbers in the gubernatorial race.
NH Sen Poll: Ayotte (R) +12
Posted by Kyle Trygstad | Email This | Permalink | Email Author
Former New Hampshire Attorney General Kelly Ayotte (R) wins 50% support and leads Rep. Paul Hodes (D) by 12 points in a new Rasmussen poll of the Senate race (May 11, 500 LV, MoE +/- 4.5%).
Hodes also trails wealthy businessman Bill Binnie by 12 points, but the Democratic congressman holds small leads over his other two potential Republican opponents, former gubernatorial nominee Ovide Lamontagne and businessman Jim Bender. Hodes had trailed Lamontagne last month.
Ayotte 50 (nc vs. last poll, April 9)
Hodes 38 (+3)
Und 9
Hodes 43 (+4)
Lamontagne 38 (-6)
Und 11
Binnie 49 (nc)
Hodes 37 (nc)
Und 8
Hodes 41
Bender 39
Und 13
RCP rates this race Lean Republican. It's open following the retirement of three-term Sen. Judd Gregg (R). The primary is set for Sept. 14.
On RCP, Tony Blankley argues that America needs elected officials who, like many Americans, are "shocked and appalled" by the policies of the Obama administration and are willing to aggressively combat them.
On Politics Nation, Kyle Trygstad writes about the upcoming primary elections in Pennsylvania and Arkansas, where Sens. Arlen Specter and Blanche Lincoln hope to avoid the fate of Bob Bennett and Alan Mollohan.
Todd Crowell writes on RCW about Japanese Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama's struggles as he seeks to relocate the Futenma U.S. Marine Corps air base.
On RCM, John Tamny argues that politicians' efforts to stimulate consumption ignore the job-producing power of saving. Diana Furchtgott-Roth contends that the new energy bill from Sens. John Kerry and Joe Lieberman will "destroy jobs."
Finally, Jeff Neuman, writing on RCS, argues that the NBA should stop delaying the conference finals to make room for network "sweeps."
KS Sen Poll: Seat Safe For GOP
Posted by Mike Memoli | Email This | Permalink | Email Author
Very quietly, the Republican primary in Kansas is one of the most competitive in the country. But whoever emerges will be a runaway favorite to win in November, a new Rasmussen poll finds (500 LVs, 5/11, MoE +/- 4.5%).
General Election Matchups
Moran (R) 60 -- Haley (D) 25 -- Und 11
Moran (R) 61 -- Johnston (D) 25 -- Und 10
Moran (R) 59 -- Schollenberger (D) 25 -- Und 11
Tiahrt (R) 58 -- Haley (D) 27 -- Und 11
Tiahrt (R) 57 -- Johnston (D) 29 -- Und 11
Tiahrt (R) 55 -- Schollenberger (D) 30 -- Und 12
RCP classifies the race as Safe Republican. In total 10 races are considered Safe Republican, while just three are considered Safe Democrat.
In ruby red Kansas, just 37 percent of respondents approve of President Obama's job performance, down 5 points since Rasmussen last polled here in late February.

