Ahead of Tuesday's elections in Pennsylvania, final polling indicates both the Democratic primary for Senate and the special election in the 12th District are too close to call.

First, Public Policy Polling (D) has numbers on special election.

Special Election Matchup
(831 LVs, 5/15-16, MoE +/- 3.4%)
Burns (R) 48 (+4 vs. last poll, 4/17-18)
Critz (D) 47 (+6)
Und 6 (-9)

PPP found that in this district, Sestak led Specter 44-35.

Now, a look at the final Muhlenberg tracking poll.

Senate Primary Election Matchup
(430 LVs, 5/12-15, MoE +/- 5%)
Specter 44 (unch)
Sestak 44 (+1)
Und 11 (-1)

The tracking poll started on May 2 with Specter ahead by 6 points. His largest lead was 9 points on May 3. Sestak then surged, leading by as much as 5 points on May 10 before Specter closed the gap.

Meanwhile, it looks again like Allegheny County Executive Dan Onorato (D) is the nominee to be.

Gubernatorial Primary Election Matchup
Onorato 39 (+1)
Williams 15 (+1)
Wagner 10 (-1)
Hoeffel 9 (-1)
Und 26 (unch)

Over at the WaPo, Chris Cilizza writes of Tuesday's special election in PA-12:

For Republicans, the race is simply a must-win.

While there are arguments to be made about the large party registration edge Democrats carry in the 12th and the fact that the special will coincide with statewide primaries where Democrats have far more competitive races than Republicans, the fact is that this is just the sort of culturally conservative swing district that the GOP must prove it can win to take back the House this fall.

Cilizza severely downplays the counterarguments here, and overstates the stakes for Republicans. First, Republicans haven't won this district since the 1930s,[1] and Democratic registration vastly outstrips Republican registration (most of the district that originally elected Murtha has been dismembered and placed in neighboring districts). While McCain did carry it, he only did so by 900 votes.

To put it differently, there are over sixty districts represented by Democrats with better Republican performances than PA-12. The Republicans' path to 218 seats doesn't necessarily run through this district – in fact, I don't think their path to a 1994-esque 230 seats necessarily runs through this district.  A Democratic loss in this district tells me that Jacksonians really are abandoning the Democrats at the Congressional level, and all sorts of hell is about to break loose in November.

The path of least resistance for Republicans still runs through places like OH-01, NY-29, IL-11, and NM-02: historically Republican districts that voted out GOP incumbents as part of the anti-Republican wave of 2006, or the Obama wave of 2008. PA-12 is, quite frankly, gravy for Republicans.

Second, and perhaps more importantly, the danger for the Democrats in November stems in large part from the enthusiasm gap between Republicans and Democrats. Republicans are presently more enthusiastic about voting than Democrats; the most recent polling shows that the most enthusiastic voters prefer GOP control of Congress by twenty points. Needless to say, this is a big change from 2008; merely pulling even in enthusiasm would probably net the GOP a dozen seats or so by itself.

But the Democrats have a built-in advantage to combat this effect in PA-12 that won't be present in November: Highly competitive primaries for Senate and, to a lesser extent, Governor. The Senate race in particular seems likely to drive Democratic turnout, while Republicans have no such upticket race to assist with GOTV efforts. In other words, it wouldn't be surprising to see Critz win by 2 or 3 points this time, but lose in November.

I quite frankly have no idea what's going to happen next Tuesday. Special election polling is notoriously unreliable, precisely because it is difficult to account for things like the Specter-Sestak primary driving downballot turnout.  Because of this, a Democratic win doesn't tell us much about November, but a Republican win might.

[1] The current 12th is an amalgamation of three districts that existed at the time that Murtha was elected: the 12th , the 21st and the 22nd. The 21st and 22nd districts didn't elect a Republican post-1932, and the portions of those districts contained in the current iteration of the 12th cast almost 2/3 of the vote in the present district. By contrast, the portions of the old 12th (which usually elected Republicans) still in the current district account for only about 1/3 of the district's vote.

New Rasmussen polls show that Idaho's incumbent Republican governor and senator up for re-election this year are in good shape. Gov. Butch Otter's lead has dropped some in the last few months, but he's still polling above 50% and leads Keith Allred (D) by 22 points. Sen. Mike Crapo, running for a third term, is up 44 points against businessman Tom Sullivan (D).

Governor
Otter 54
Allred 32
Und 9

Senate
Crapo 66
Sullivan 22
Und 9

The surveys of 500 LV were conducted May 11 with a MoE of +/- 4.5%.

RCP rates the Senate race Safe Republican and the governor's race Safe Republican.

Michael Ramirez pens one of the cleverest - and funniest - cartoons I've seen in some time.

"I heard, 'This morning, the Prime Minister will...' and I thought, 'Oh God, what's he doing now? And then I thought, 'Oh no, hang on a second - it's me!' - David Cameron, in his first interview since moving into 10 Downing Street.

Mike Memoli writes that while the president's national job approval ratings have enjoyed a small resurgence, he has negative ratings in more than half the states with data available, including states such as Pennsylvania, Ohio and Nevada that feature key Senate races this year.

On RCM, Michael Pento, chief economist at Delta Global Advisors, argues that the Fed needs to move away from its zero percent interest rate policy to protect the country from inflation.

On RCS, Art Spander argues that the sports world needs to tone down the rampant speculation about where LeBron James will play next year.

Finally, as primary season heats up, check out RCP's election calendar and the latest polls.

Adam Smith has a write up of Charlie Crist's interview with the St. Petersburg Times editorial board that includes this nugget:

What's he think about President Barack Obama nominating Elena Kagan to the U.S. Supreme Court? "I think she'd do a great job," said the candidate who last year opposed Justice Sonia Sotomayor when conservative activists were turning on him.

"Isn't that fun?" he asked, when board members looked momentarily taken aback by his direct answer."

And this:

"I think the primary activists in my former party have become regrettably extreme. And I think the same is true of the Democratic party for that segment of the party."

The Rubio campaign scoffed at Crist's comments.

"Charlie Crist was only a proud Republican until the moment he realized he couldn't win an election due to his support for wasteful stimulus spending, tax increases and liberal judges," said campaign spokesman Alex Burgos. "If Charlie Crist felt so tortured as a Republican, then he should have no problem liberating himself entirely by returning Republicans' campaign contributions."

Crist was blunt about not honoring requests for refunds, which he said are few anyway: "I want it. I need it. I want to win."

This is why national conservatives are falling in love with New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (R).

In two of three potential matchups in a new Rasmussen poll (500 LVs, 5/12, MoE +/- 4.5%) of the California Senate race, Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) has expanded her lead over Republican foes. But against the current primary frontrunner, former Rep. Tom Campbell, it's now a 1-point race.

General Election Matchups
Boxer 42 (-1 vs. last poll, 4/12)
Campbell 41 (unch)
Und 12 (+2)

Boxer 45 (+3)
Fiorina 38 (unch)
Und 12 (-1)

Boxer 46 (+4)
DeVore 40 (+1)
Und 11 (-1)

RCP currently classifies the race as a Toss Up.

I can't believe Politico had the gall to out twelve female members of the House of Representatives as homosexual.