Just when you thought things couldn't get worse for Democrats. A simply brutal story from the New York Times:

At a ceremony honoring veterans and senior citizens who sent presents to soldiers overseas, Attorney General Richard Blumenthal of Connecticut rose and spoke of an earlier time in his life.

“We have learned something important since the days that I served in Vietnam,” Mr. Blumenthal said to the group gathered in Norwalk in March 2008. “And you exemplify it. Whatever we think about the war, whatever we call it — Afghanistan or Iraq — we owe our military men and women unconditional support.”

There was one problem: Mr. Blumenthal, a Democrat now running for the United States Senate, never served in Vietnam. He obtained at least five military deferments from 1965 to 1970 and took repeated steps that enabled him to avoid going to war, according to records.

The deferments allowed Mr. Blumenthal to complete his studies at Harvard; pursue a graduate fellowship in England; serve as a special assistant to The Washington Post's publisher, Katharine Graham; and ultimately take a job in the Nixon White House.

In 1970, with his last deferment in jeopardy, he enlisted in the Marine Reserve, landing a coveted spot in a unit in Washington, which virtually guaranteed that he would not be sent to Vietnam. The unit conducted part-time drills and other exercises and focused on local projects, like fixing a campground and organizing a Toys for Tots drive.

The race had been classified as Likely Democratic. Blumenthal's entry to the race as Sen. Chris Dodd (D) announced he would not run was seen as saving the seat. Now ... well, we'll see.

Democrats in Connecticut were set to hold their nominating convention this Friday.

UPDATE: Rob Simmons, one of the Republican hopefuls, earned two Bronze Stars for his 19 months of service in Vietnam. Think his stock just rose among Nutmeg State Republicans?

UPDATE 2: Here's Sean Trende's take:

Blumenthal leads his GOP opponents by 20-30 points in the polls, but he's awfully close to 50% for a guy who has held statewide office for over a decade. More importantly he hasn't run a competitive race in years, which causes you to make costly gaffes like this.

...

I actually don't think this will leave that much of a mark. But it is the type of gaffe that causes consultants to shudder at what might come next, and its why we think there's a good chance that this race will tighten.

UPDATE 3: Here's a statement from the Blumenthal campaign:

"The New York Times story is an outrageous distortion of Dick Blumenthal's record of service. Unlike many of his peers, Dick Blumenthal voluntarily joined the Marine Corps Reserves in 1970 and served for six months in Parris Island, SC and six years in the reserves.  He received no special treatment from anyone. Dick has a long record of standing up for veterans.  Tomorrow,  veterans will be standing up with Dick."

Unless there has been a polling fiasco that rivals the Great New Hampshire Primary Debacle Of 2008, Rand Paul will emerge tomorrow as the GOP nominee in Kentucky. This is an astonishing development: If I were to take the wayback machine to last summer to tell 2009 Sean Trende that Rand Paul was to be the GOP nominee, 2009 Sean Trende would probably have voluntarily committed himself to a mental hospital to get ahead of what appeared to be his forthcoming break with reality.

You see, the GOP got its favored candidate when Secretary of State Trey Grayson, one of two Republicans holding statewide office, declared for the seat of retiring Senator Jim Bunning. Ron Paul's son, Rand, later declared for the seat, and was seen as something of a gadfly.

Paul has turned out to be anything but a gadfly. He had three advantages over Grayson. First, he had access to his father's name and fundraising network. Although Ron Paul didn't win any primaries in 2008, he did raise tremendous amounts of money, and Rand has followed suit. Second, he was an anti-establishment candidate in an anti-establishment year. And finally, he was fortunate enough (or clever enough) to run for the Senate in the Year of the Tea Party. Indeed, if you run down Paul's issues list, you see a veritable cornucopia of Tea Party keywords: Bailouts, national defense, inflation, taxes, debt, liberty, sovereignty, the Fed, and so forth.

But what does this mean for the general election? Can Paul win?

It's difficult to assess the race immediately, because the Democrats have a very tight primary race of their own right now. Attorney General Jack Conway is taking on Lieutenant Governor Dan Mongiardo, who nearly upset incumbent Senator Jim Bunning in 2004.

The first glance at the race would nevertheless suggest that it would be an uphill battle for Paul. Kentucky is still a Democratic state at the state level, though its Democrats tend to be of the conservative, Southern variety. Paul is about the farthest thing from a Southern Democrat to come out of GOP politics since, well, his father. Paul's staunch fiscal conservatism and heterodox views on social issues (though he is pro-life) are the inverse of the typical socially-conservative-fiscally-populist views that typified the Southern Democracy. In some respects, Kentucky may be the worst state in the union in which to run as a libertarian Republican.

But the polling suggests otherwise. Despite enduring withering attacks from Grayson over the past three months, Paul leads Mongiardo and Conway. His leads aren't as large as Grayson's, but they range from the solid (against Democratic frontrunner Mongiardo) to the narrow (against Conway). More impressively, he hasn't trailed against either potential Democrat in any polling since last summer.

Moreover, while fiscal populism is frequently contradictory – anti-corporate and anti-government – in this year they are uniquely married together. Paul's anti-bailout message really goes to both strands of populism, and is tailor-made for Democrats who are wary of taxes, and who really don't like their tax dollars going to corporations.

Finally, for all of the obvious attacks on Paul's positions, he'll have a trump to play against his Democratic opponent that he can't unleash in the primary: “Sending [Mongiardo/Conway] to Washington is another Democratic vote for Barack Obama's agenda.” In a state where the President received 41% of the vote last November and currently suffers from a net -20 approval rating, it's hard to see a Democratic Senator headed for Washington.

A Rand Paul candidacy certainly makes the Kentucky Senate race interesting. But it would be a huge mistake to write it off.

Here's the take of Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell (D) today, speaking with MSNBC about tomorrow's Senate primary:

"It's a very close race and Arlen needs a good turnout from the southeast, and particularly from the city of Philadelphia."

And here's what he told RCP just two weeks ago:

"It's going to be a low-turnout election, and anything can happen in a low-turnout election. But I would believe that he's likely to win by double digits."

Rendell also said then that Rep. Joe Sestak "made a huge mistake" by waiting until just the final few weeks before launching a TV ad. It turns out when you have an ad as effective as this one, perhaps that's not as bad a strategy as it seemed at the time.

UPDATE: An interesting nugget from Richard Wolffe's look inside the "Obama war room" for 2010:

In private, senior White House officials say that Specter can pull off a surprise win over Sestak on Tuesday, based on confident predictions by Pennsylvania Governor Ed Rendell—the man who helped engineer Obama's big defeat in the Pennsylvania primary two years ago. "Rendell says Specter will win and win comfortably," says another senior aide. "And I never bet against Rendell."

The White House has posted in-house video of today's bill signing ceremony in the Oval Office of the Daniel Pearl Freedom of the Press Act.

"This legislation, in a very modest way, I think puts us clearly on the side of journalistic freedom," Obama says.

The video cuts off before this exchange with members of the press who were in the room for the bill signing:

REPORTER: "Speaking of press freedom, could you answer a couple of questions on BP?"

THE PRESIDENT: "You're certainly free to ask them, Chip."

REPORTER: "Will you answer them? How about a question on Iran?"

THE PRESIDENT: "We won't be answering -- I'm not doing a press conference today, but we'll be seeing you guys during the course of this week. Okay?"

True enough, Obama is not having a press conference today. He hasn't had a full-fledged Q&A with the press since July 22, as a matter of fact. He has, however, taken a handful of questions at meetings with visiting heads of state, most recently last Thursday with Hamid Karzai. He'll also take questions this Wednesday when Mexican President Felipe Calderon comes to the White House for a state visit.

Republican Marco Rubio has pulled ahead in the three-way contest for Florida's open Senate seat, a new Rasmussen survey finds (May 16, 500 LV, MoE +/- 4.5%).

Crist led in the previous Rasmussen poll taken two weeks ago, as well as a Mason-Dixon survey out around the same time. Meek's numbers stayed about even since the last poll, as the Democrat -- who's now facing a wealthy primary challenger -- remains below 20% in the general election.

Rubio 39 (+5 vs. last poll, May 3)
Crist 31 (-7)
Meek 18 (+1)

RCP rates this race a Toss Up.

On the eve of what many are billing a mini-Super Tuesday, Kyle Trygstad and Mike Memoli preview the big races in Pennsylvania, Arkansas and Kentucky on Politics Nation.

On RCP, David Paul Kuhn argues that the Obama base of young and minority voters is not likely to reprise its 2008 performance in November.

RCM has a speech by Rep. Ted Poe (R-TX), delivered on the floor of the House, in which he argues that the government should regulate the value of the dollar. Writing on Forbes.com, RCM Editor John Tamny argues that bailouts, by giving Washington the power to limit banks' profit-seeking behavior, has discouraged lending.

And on RCS, Jeff Neuman marvels at the Celtics' playoff resurgence. Finally, if you want more on both of the conference finals, visit the Sidelines blog for the RCS staff's predictions and analysis.

In the immediate aftermath of the March primary, polling in Texas indicated a potentially tough race for Gov. Rick Perry (R), seeking his third full term in 2010. But Rasmussen's new numbers (500 LVs, 5/13, MoE +/- 4.5%) now show him with a double-digit advantage over his Democratic opponent, former Houston Mayor Bill White.

General Election Matchup
Perry 51 (+3 vs. last poll, 4/15)
White 38 (-6)
Und 6 (unch)

Perry's job approval rating, though, is down somewhat. It's now at 55 percent, down from 59 percent in April. President Obama's job rating is unchanged at 42 percent approve, 57 percent disapprove.

How many senators still would have backed the controversial $700 billion Troubled Assets Relief Program had they known then what they know today -- that a vote for it is perhaps the biggest detriment to one's re-election prospects in 2010?

As the Washington Post reports this morning, TARP "has turned into a touchstone of the anti-Washington sentiment threatening lawmakers in both parties. Of the 74 senators who voted for TARP, 17 are seeking reelection this year."

One, Utah Sen. Bob Bennett, has already met his political fate, and Arkansas Sen. Blanche Lincoln is up for a primary vote tomorrow.

The Arkansas Democrat "was being assailed on the campaign trail for her TARP vote and for accepting campaign contributions from banks that had received bailout funds," the Post reports. "Her opponent in the primary, Lt. Gov. Bill Halter, aired a TV ad describing TARP as a conspiracy between 'Washington and Wall Street' to line 'their pockets with insider deals and stick Arkansas families with the bill.'"

The question is how much the Wall Street reform package currently being debated on the floor of the Senate can lessen the anti-TARP fervor.

Quinnipiac concludes from its latest survey that the race for the Democratic nomination for Pennsylvania Senate is "too close to call." Not only are Sen. Arlen Specter and Rep. Joe Sestak statistically tied, but 16% remain undecided and 25% say they might change their mind.

Sestak 42
Specter 41
Und 16

"The Sestak-Specter race is a dead heat and could go either way," said Quinnipiac assistant direct Peter A. Brown. "Sen. Arlen Specter has the party organization behind him, which should help with turnout. But Congressman Joe Sestak could benefit from the relatively large group of undecided voters."

Click here for more polling on the race.

In the governor's race, Democrat Dan Onorato continues to hold a significant lead over the rest of the primary field.

Onorato 39
Williams 11
Wagner 10
Hoeffel 9
Und 31

The survey of 951 Dem LV was conducted May 12-16 with a MoE of +/- 3.2%.

The final Public Policy Polling (D) survey of the Kentucky GOP Senate primary (1,065 LVs, 5/15-16, MoE +/- 3%) points to a potential landslide win for Rand Paul, clearing 50 percent.

Primary Election Matchup
Paul 52 (+6 vs. last poll, 5/1-2)
Grayson 34 (+6)
Other 7 (+3)
Und 7 (-14)

Nearly a third of the primary voters say Grayson, the secretary of state and handpicked candidate of Sen. Mitch McConnell (R), is too liberal. More telling, perhaps, is that just 36 percent of respondents say they approve of the current direction of the GOP, while 69 percent say they support the goals of the Tea Party movement.

But McConnell's standing is secure in the Bluegrass State, at least among these voters. Sixty-four percent say the winner of the primary should support him as GOP leader of the Senate.