Over at the Atlantic, Joshua Green writes:

It would be silly to write him off, and I still think he's the favorite in the race, but the week since he won the GOP primary has been a terrible one for Rand Paul, and now we have poll numbers to back that up. A new Daily Kos/Research 2000 poll has Paul running neck and neck with Democratic attorney general Jack Conway, leading him 44-40. That's a far cry from the 59-34 lead that a recent Rasmussen survey showed. Of course, Paul may never really have had a 25-point lead. Jon Chait explains the problem with Rasmussen polls. In any event, seems safe to conclude that a fair number of Kentuckians support the Civil Rights Act...

One small problem with Green's analysis: it's an apples-to-oranges comparison of polls. In fact, on May 10, well before there were any comments about the Civil Rights Act, the Daily Kos/Research 2000 poll had Rand Paul ahead of Conway 42%-39%.  The current DKos/R2000 poll shows Paul's support is up to 44% and Conways' is up to 41%, which means there's no change in the three point differential between the two candidates.  They teach this on the first day of Poll Analysis 101.

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