John Spratt was first elected in 1982 to represent the rural Fifth Congressional District of South Carolina with 68% of the vote.  Since then, he has generally been re-elected by double digits (close calls in 1994 and 1996 being the exceptions), despite having a voting record that just barely places him among the 100 most conservative Democrats.

Part of this is because South Carolina Five is a little bit like Pennsylvania Twelve -- a rural district filled with voters who traditionally vote Democrat -- and who still do at the local level -- and who are not crazy about voting for Republicans except when they face off against national Democratic Presidential candidates. Six of the ten state Senate seats contained within the Fifth are represented by Democrats, as are ten of the eighteen state house seats.  The Republican representation is concentrated in Cherokee and York (Charlotte suburbs/exurbs) Counties, which, not coincidentally, were two of Spratt's three weakest counties in 2008.  He typically carries the remaining counties with over 60% of the vote.

This year, Spratt seems to be in for his biggest test in over a decade.  He's supported all three "big-ticket" items on the President's agenda:  cap-and-trade, the stimulus, and health care reform.  He has a solid challenger in state Senator Mick Mulvaney.

And he's the recipient of some bad polling.  Back in January, Public Policy Polling sampled the Fifth, and found Spratt leading Mulvaney 46%-39%.  This week, Mulvaney's camp released a poll from Public Opinion Strategies, showing Spratt ahead by two points, 43%-41%.

Now, this is a campaign poll, so it should be taken with an appropriate grain of salt (or, if you like, add a couple of points to the Democrat's total).  Nevertheless, even adjusting for the "campaign" aspect of it, Spratt is below 50%, and possibly around the 45% "line of death" for politicians.  I think this will be a tough race, and RCP lists it as a tossup, but Spratt appears to be in real trouble.

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