No matter what ails them elsewhere, Democrats can rest easy it seems about races in New York State. A new Siena poll (905 RVs, 5/17-20, MoE +/- 3.3%) finds Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D) now over 50 percent against potential Republican opponents and with her best-ever favorable ratings. And in the gubernatorial race, Attorney General Andrew Cuomo (D) leads all potential foes by more than 40 points as he now officially has entered the contest.

Gubernatorial General Election Matchups
Cuomo 66 (+5) -- Lazio 24 (unch) -- Und 10 (-6)
Cuomo 65 (+7) -- Levy 22 (-1) -- Und 13 (-6)
Cuomo 65 (+1) -- Paladino 22 (+3) -- Und 13 (-3)

That governor's race does have an under-covered GOP primary battle shaping up, however. Former Rep. and 2000 Senate nominee Rick Lazio remains ahead as Democrat-turned-Republican hopeful Steve Levy has failed to gain any traction.

Republican Gubernatorial Primary Election Matchup
(328 RVs, MoE +/- 5.4%)
Lazio 29 (unch)
Paladino 16 (+3)
Levy 14 (-1)
Und 41 (-2)

The real fight is behind the scenes as some party leaders hope to force a primary contest by potentially changing the rules at the state party convention to lower the threshold needed to qualify. The general election contest is considered Safe Democrat on our gubernatorial map.

The Republican primary for Gillibrand's seat is a far greater tossup, with a whopping three-quarters of GOP voters unsure of their choice.

Republican Senate Primary Election Matchup
DioGuardi 15 (-9)
Blakeman 8 (+1)
Malpass 4 (-1)
Und 74 (+9)

Owing to that and an all-time best favorable rating (42 percent vs. 24 percent unfavorable), Gillibrand looks safe in the special election to keep the seat she was appointed to last year.

Senate General Election Matchups
Gillibrand 51 (+5) -- Blakeman 24 (-2) -- Und 25 (-3)
Gillibrand 51 (+5) -- DioGuardi 25 (-2) -- Und 27 (-3)
Gillibrand 53 (+7) -- Malpass 22 (-2) -- Und 25 (-5)

That race is rated as Likely Democrat on our Senate map.

Sen. Chuck Schumer (D), also up for re-election, is considered safe given he faces no major opposition. But one small measure of anti-incumbent sentiment: in a generic re-elect question, an all-time low of 52 percent say they'd vote to elect Schumer versus 35 percent say they'd back a someone else.

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