Here's the take of Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell (D) today, speaking with MSNBC about tomorrow's Senate primary:

"It's a very close race and Arlen needs a good turnout from the southeast, and particularly from the city of Philadelphia."

And here's what he told RCP just two weeks ago:

"It's going to be a low-turnout election, and anything can happen in a low-turnout election. But I would believe that he's likely to win by double digits."

Rendell also said then that Rep. Joe Sestak "made a huge mistake" by waiting until just the final few weeks before launching a TV ad. It turns out when you have an ad as effective as this one, perhaps that's not as bad a strategy as it seemed at the time.

UPDATE: An interesting nugget from Richard Wolffe's look inside the "Obama war room" for 2010:

In private, senior White House officials say that Specter can pull off a surprise win over Sestak on Tuesday, based on confident predictions by Pennsylvania Governor Ed Rendell—the man who helped engineer Obama's big defeat in the Pennsylvania primary two years ago. "Rendell says Specter will win and win comfortably," says another senior aide. "And I never bet against Rendell."

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