If you needed any other proof how ugly the political climate is out there for incumbents, state Senator Mike Oliverio defeated 14-term Democrat Alan Mollohan tonight in the primary in West Virginia's First Congressional District.  It wasn't even particularly close; as of this writing, Mollohan is down 56%-44%.  The district is centered on Wheeling and Morgantown, and has been represented by a Mollohan since 1968 (Mollohan's father was a Congressman as well).

RCP currently classifies this race as a Tossup, but Mollohan's defeat scrambles the calculus somewhat, and may even strengthen the Democrats' chances of retaining this seat.  Republicans planned on running against Mollohan on the allegations of ethical improprieties brought against him, on his vote on health care, and support of President Obama on other issues.  But Oliverio ran to Mollohan's right, castigating him on his health care vote and on the ethics allegations.  Although the district went heavily for John McCain, there is still a significant Democratic base at the local level that is perfectly capable of sending a Democrat to Congress.

But this race isn't just about Alan Mollohan anymore, it's about Oliverio and the GOP winner, David McKinley.  How they handle themselves over the next six months will determine whether this race breaks toward the Republicans or toward the Democrats.

The other West Virginia Democrat, Nick Rahall, was held to 67% of the vote by a candidate who believed that we should oppose hate crimes bills because they support gay sex.  Rahall will probably face off against former Supreme Court Justice Elliot "Spike" Maynard.

And Arlen Specter should be very, very afraid.

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